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Trade Worries Back on the Table

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Image Source: Michael Vadon We think investors shouldn’t overreact, but we didn’t have two world wars in the last century because leaders of superpowers “got along” nicely. By Brian Nelson, CFA News that President Trump is asking to identify $200 billion worth of Chinese goods on which to levy a 10% tariff has the markets a bit jittery. China’s Ministry of Commerce responded that if the US moves forward with the tariffs, it would take “comprehensive quantitative and qualitative measures and retaliate forcefully.” We expect news regarding trade tensions between the US (SPY, DIA) and China (FXI, MCHI) to only intensify in the coming weeks, as the White House seeks to pursue what is likely game theory to achieve better … Read more

Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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To read the study, please click on the image to download the pdf document (pdf).

PayPal Grows Stronger

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PayPal scooped up assets that will help it better compete against Square, and we think both entities have a bright future regardless of the increased competition. Brian Nelson, CFA It’s no secret that PayPal (PYPL) generates a considerable amount of free cash flow and boasts a very strong net cash position that allows it to scoop up assets that it deems worthy of the long-term picture. Many have been concerned about PayPal’s expected loss of its contract with eBay (EBAY) in 2023, and it was quite the blow, but the entire relationship merely amounts to a few months of organic growth at the payment-processing giant. We also view Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as more of an opportunity than a threat for … Read more

Best Ideas: Reiterating ~$240 Fair Value on Facebook; Adding Chipotle

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We couldn’t be more pleased with Facebook’s first-quarter 2018 results, and we are reiterating our ~$240 per-share fair value estimate on the company. We’re also adding Chipotle as an idea to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and we’re putting three other speculative considerations on your radar. By Brian Nelson, CFA Facebook (FB) seems to be back in the driver’s seat. We never thought it was out of the race, but many may have thought the negative press would do its shares in … permanently. Not the case. Facebook’s first-quarter 2018 results were fantastic, adding to other strong reports from core simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio ideas, “A Trifecta of Good Reports: Visa, Facebook, PayPal.” Shares of Facebook still look … Read more

A Trifecta of Good Reports: Visa, Facebook, PayPal

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We continue to like the long-term potential at Visa and absolutely love the level of its operating margins. Facebook is going to continue to get bad press, but fundamentally, we think the company is going to make it through to shine once again. PayPal had a nice first-quarter report, and while we would like to see more security with respect to its relationship with eBay, the company’s pace of growth suggests it could easily grow out of its early ties with the auction website. By Brian Nelson, CFA There were three notable reports after the close April 25: Visa (V), Facebook (FB), and PayPal (PYPL). We continue to be huge fans of Visa’s long-term potential, and its level of operating … Read more

Twitter’s Problems: Slow Growth in the US and Low-ROI for Small Business

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Image Source: Xiaobin Lui We like Twitter’s improved free cash flow generation and net cash position on the balance sheet, but it’s too hard for small businesses to build customer trust on the platform, and the lack of engagement from followers at mom-and-pop businesses is almost hard to believe. It seems like Twitter remains primarily a distribution platform for politicians, the media and celebrities, those already having exposure from other avenues. Small, mom-and-pop businesses – the bread and butter behind future advertising revenue at Twitter – can’t make Twitter work for them as returns on their investment remain minimal, at best. By Brian Nelson, CFA We had warmed up to Twitter (TWTR) in February because we thought the platform may … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages

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Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more

Portfolios: Dividend Growth Versus Best Ideas

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Let’s talk about the difference between the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Hi folks, I wanted to post a short note because it’s important that we continue to explain the difference between the two newsletter portfolios that we provide as part of the individual membership. We publish a Dividend Growth Newsletter and a Best Ideas Newsletter, the former delivered on the 1st of the month and the latter delivered on the 15th of the month. We also cover and provide reports on over 1,000 stocks and dividends on our website, as well as provide quarterly publications like the Dividend100 publication, for example. We cover the bases. We also provide the monthly Nelson Exclusive publication, which by … Read more

Alert: Dropping P&G; Also — Intel’s Dividend Hike; General Motors Puts Up Strong March Sales

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We were reminded of some good news from Intel and General Motors, but the time has come to part with Procter & Gamble. We may have included it in the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio too long. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hope you all had a warm holiday weekend. It was pleasant this morning to be reminded that simulated newsletter portfolio idea Intel (INTC) increased its dividend 10% when it reported quarterly results January. The dividend will be payable on June 1 to shareholders of record on May 7. The enthusiasm behind our call on Intel and our article in the April edition of the Dividend Growth Newsletter was a bit short-lived given the recent rumors in the PC market, … Read more

Trump Knocks Air Out of Amazon; Intel Investors Overreact to Apple News

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Only fools, or worse, are saying that our money losing Post Office makes money with Amazon. THEY LOSE A FORTUNE, and this will be changed. Also, our fully tax paying retailers are closing stores all over the country…not a level playing field! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 2, 2018 President Trump continues to move markets, and his messages about Amazon haven’t gone unnoticed. Apple seems to be targeting wider gross margins in coming years, as it looks to bring in-house a part of its supply chain. Intel’s shares overreact. By Brian Nelson, CFA President Trump seems to want to put Amazon (AMZN) in its place, and his recent comments have been a source of fear for many investors of … Read more