DX

Mortgage REITs Have Underperformed Significantly the Past Several Years

by

Image: An ETF that tracks the mortgage REIT industry has fallen more than 31% on a price-only basis, while an ETF that tracks the S&P 500 has advanced more than 160% on a price-only basis, as measured from May 2013. By Brian Nelson, CFA Mortgage REITs (REM) are popular vehicles because of their deceptively enticing dividend yields, but we’ve never been bullish on the group. We’re reiterating our take today that these instruments are not for the individual investor or even prudent financial advisor and are more complicated vehicles than many investors believe. In May 2013, we first starting warning about the group, and the performance, as shown in the image above, hasn’t been pretty. On a price-only basis, the … Read more

ICYMI: Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value”

by

Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why there are not really value and growth stocks, why most of the research in quantitative finance is spurious and needs to be redefined on a forward-looking basis, and why enterprise valuation (not the efficient markets hypothesis) should be the organizing principle of finance. Nelson explains his views about valuation, what it means to be a value investor, and investing in the context of Oaktree Capital Howard Marks’ latest memo, “Something of Value,” January 11, 2021. Please don’t forget to give the second edition of the book “Value Trap” a 5-star rating on Amazon here. Thank you for your membership! —– Tickerized for holdings in the IWM. Valuentum members have … Read more

Value Is Not Static and the Qualitative Overlay Is Vital to Our Process

by

With prudence and care, the Valuentum Buying Index process and its components are carried out. Our analyst team spends most of its time thinking about the intrinsic value of companies within the context of a discounted cash-flow model and evaluating the risk profile of a company’s revenue model. We have checks and balances, too. First, we use a fair value range in our valuation approach as we embrace the very important concept that value is a range and not a point estimate. A relative value overlay as the second pillar helps to add conviction in the discounted cash-flow process, while a technical and momentum overlay seeks to provide confirmation in all of the valuation work. There’s a lot happening behind the scenes even before a VBI rating is published, but it will always be just one factor to consider. Within any process, of course, we value the human, qualitative overlay, which captures a wealth of experience and common sense. We strive to surface our best ideas for members.

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending August 16

by

Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending August 16. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week CAE (CAE): now CAD 0.11 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.10. Exchange Income (EIFZF): now CAD 0.19 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.1825. Farmers National (FMNB): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.09. Group 1 Automotive (GPI): now $0.28 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.26. IF Bancorp (IROQ): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.125. Magic Software (MGIC): now $0.156 per share … Read more

Mortgage REITs Still Dangerous Income Vehicles

by

Image: Since late May 2013, mortgage REITs, as measured by the iShares Trust Mortgage Real Estate ETF (REM), middle, have fallen more than 20%, while the master limited partnership space, as measured by the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP), has fallen by nearly 45%, bottom. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SPY) has rallied more than 75%, all on a price-basis, top.  By Brian Nelson, CFA There’s nothing “safe” about mortgage REITs (REM). The industry caught a lot of attention with the high-profile performance of some of the larger players, including AGNC Investment (AGNC) and Annaly Capital (NLY), in years past, but the hype has fizzled out. Not only has the mortgage REIT industry vastly underperformed a broad market benchmark such as the … Read more

Understanding the Phenomenon of “Price Risk” in High Yield

by

  Image Source: Julien Carnot We want you to learn about a unique risk innate to the high yield space like the back of your hand. We’ll explain the “information contained in prices” and talk about what you should be on the lookout for, the “avalanche effect.” Order the High Yield Dividend Newsletter here. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — I received a question from a dear member of ours, and I think it may be helpful that I share the response. The question had to do with why we may be ultra-cautious on high-yielding stocks that are facing considerable price declines. The risk described below makes the high yield space uniquely different than other equity strategies, in our view, … Read more

Podcast: The Hazards of Mortgage REITs

by

President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks mortgage REITs and the concept of spread risk that may lead to steep book value declines and weakened dividend health across the industry. ~5 mins. If you cannot view the video below, please view the transcript that follows or select the link here. Kris Rosemann: Hi, I am Kris Rosemann for Valuentum Securities. Today on our podcast President of Investment Research Brian Nelson is going walk us through some of our thoughts on mortgage REITs (REM). Brian could you explain to us why we at Valuentum don’t like mortgage REITs and maybe go through some of the risks individual investors should be concerned with that are not as prevalent as a normal operating … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 24

by

Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending March 24. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 8point3 Energy Partners (CAFD): now $0.2565 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.249. Canadian Banc Corp (CNDCF): now CAD 0.10833 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.10458. Citizens Financial Services (CZFS): now $0.425 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.42. Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT): now $0.089461 per share monthly dividend, was $0.061822. Enduro Royalty Trust (NDRO): now $0.040901 per share monthly dividend, was $0.017331. Fulton Financial (FULT): … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending March 18

by

Image: Williams-Sonoma’s dividend strength continues to impress; source: Mike Mozart Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending March 18. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD): now $0.86 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.81. CareTrust REIT (CTRE): now $0.17 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.16. Children’s Place Retail Stores (PLCE): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Global High Income Fund (GHI): now $0.0658 per share monthly dividend, was $0.0657. Granite Real Estate (GRP.U): now C$0.203 … Read more