DPZ

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Domino’s Same Store Sales Growth Beats Expectations

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Image Source: Domino’s By Brian Nelson, CFA On July 21, Domino’s (DPZ) reported mixed second quarter results with revenue beating the consensus forecast but GAAP earnings per share coming in lower than expectations. Revenue increased 4.3% in the quarter due to higher supply chain revenues, higher U.S. franchise royalties and fees and higher U.S. franchise advertising revenues. U.S. same store sales growth was 3.4% in the quarter, beating expectations calling for a 2.2% advance. International same store sales growth was 2.4%, beating expectations calling for a 1.6% increase. Adjusted income from operations increased 14.9% due to higher U.S. franchise royalties and fees, as well as gross margin dollar growth within supply chain. Management had the following to say about the … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

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Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

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By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Domino’s Pizza Misses First Quarter U.S. Same Store Sales Consensus Estimate

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Image Source: Domino’s By Brian Nelson, CFA On April 28, Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) reported mixed first quarter results with GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus estimate, but revenue falling short of what the Street was looking for. Excluding foreign currency impacts, global retail sales growth came in at 4.7%, but U.S. same store sales declined 0.5% in the period, missing the consensus estimate. International same store sales growth was 3.7%, excluding foreign currency impacts, beating the consensus estimate. Domino’s experienced a global net store decline of 8 in the quarter, consisting of 17 net store openings in the U.S and 25 net store closings internationally.   Management had the following to say about the quarter: Domino’s Q1 results demonstrate … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more

Domino’s Remains a Key Idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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Image: Domino’s shares have advanced nicely since the beginning of 2023. By Brian Nelson, CFA Domino’s (DPZ) reported mixed fourth quarter results February 24, with revenue and GAAP earnings per share coming in lower than the consensus forecast, but the company raising its quarterly dividend 15%, to $1.74 per share. Global retail sales, excluding foreign exchange impact, in the fourth quarter grew 4.4%, with U.S. same store sales growth of 0.4% and International same store sales growth of 2.7%. Total revenues increased 2.9%, while income from operations advanced 6.4% in the fourth quarter. Diluted earnings per share increased 9.2%, to $4.89, in the quarter. Management had the following to say in the press release: Domino’s 2024 results demonstrated that our … Read more

Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle Rating

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Image Source: Ian By Brian Nelson, CFA “In business, I look for economic castles protected by unbreachable moats.” – Warren Buffett In the world of investing, no other saying may be more widespread. The teachings of Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A, BRK.B) Warren Buffett have become a favorite among individual investors, having been adopted by money-management firms and sell-side firms alike in order to better connect with their clients and readers who have been ‘under siege’ by the topic in recent years. The phrase ‘economic moat’ – or sustainable competitive advantage – has simply become ubiquitous in the investment world and perhaps has lost much of its significance and meaning along the way. Most management teams across the globe are now eager … Read more

Domino’s Pizza Remains an Attractive Long-Term Story

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By Brian Nelson, CFA On October 10, Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) reported mixed third quarter fiscal 2024 results with GAAP earnings per share coming in above expectations, while revenue came up short relative to the Street’s forecast. Excluding foreign currency impacts, global retail sales expanded 5.1% thanks to higher supply chain, U.S. franchise advertising and U.S. franchise royalties and fees revenues, while U.S. same store sales growth came in at 3%. International same store sales growth, excluding foreign currency impacts, was 0.8%, while it grew global net stores by 72 in the quarter. Excluding foreign currency impacts, income from operations advanced 5.7% in the period thanks to gross margin dollar growth within supply chain and higher U.S. franchise royalties and fees. … Read more

The Difference Between Speculation and Investment

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Brian Nelson, President of Investment Research at Valuentum, discusses the difference between speculation and investment.  Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. I’d like to talk about the concept of speculation. I think it is best taught with a story perhaps, one of my personal experiences. I used to work on the buy side and one of the more interesting stocks that I pitched in my experience was a company called Synaptics (SYNA). This must have been in 2004-2005 — almost 20 years ago now. Synaptics made an interface for a number of electronic devices, and what it held was some of the technological building blocks for a click-wheel technology. About a year or two later following that … Read more