DKS

Apple iPhone Supply Disruptions Not Likely to Hurt Markets with Overall Holiday Sales Reportedly Strong

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Image: Holiday sales are expected to expand ~2.5% in 2022 over very strong growth in 2021 and 2020. Image Source: Adobe By Brian Nelson, CFA Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk and Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook seemingly have worked out a plan for Apple to keep advertising on the Twitter platform after what looked to be a temporary pause by the iPhone maker. Though the news is immaterial to our thesis on Apple in any respect, it was good to see the two tech giants work whatever differences they had out. Certainly, a fallout between Musk and Cook would not be a good thing for the tech sector and innovation, more broadly, as the two wield large influences across Silicon … Read more

Target’s Holiday Outlook Sends Mixed Messages; Big Sales Data Week Ahead

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Image Source: Valuentum “Nearly all of the slowdown was driven by our discretionary categories, Apparel, Home and Hardlines, as our guests became increasingly cautious in their spending in those categories at both Target and throughout the industry more broadly. So far in the month of November, trends have been largely consistent with what we were seeing at the end of October, in terms of our comp trends, the mix of sales between frequency and discretionary businesses and the focus on promotions by our guests.” – Target’s 3Q Conference Call By Brian Nelson, CFA After Walmart (WMT) reported its third-quarter earnings November 15, “Walmart Is Back on Track; Markets Looking Healthier,” we thought things were looking a bit better across the … Read more

Something New!

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Hi everyone: To stay true to our mission, you’ll find something new regarding our methodology. In the coming weeks, you’ll see this table in our work going forward. We just wanted to let you know. We appreciate your membership very much!   ——————————————— About Our Name But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” and “growth,”…We view that as fuzzy thinking…Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term “value investing” is redundant.                          — Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992 At Valuentum, we take Buffett’s thoughts one step further. We think the best opportunities arise from an understanding of … Read more

Get Excited: Dividend Growth Investors Rejoice! – More “Outperformance”

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Image: Valuentum’s simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio continues to “outperform” relative to almost any dividend-paying benchmark this year! Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. This is not a real money portfolio. By Brian Nelson, CFA We just talked about the awesome success rates of the Exclusive publication, the fantastic performance of the simulated High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, and now my friends, let’s put our hands together for Valuentum dividend growth investors! As of the last tally through October 19, the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio is beating the S&P 500 Dividend ETF SPDR (SDY) by roughly ~3.2 percentage points so far in 2022 (-8.4% versus -11.6%), all the while we’ve seen some awesome dividend growth by … Read more

Announcing Valuentum’s Customer Appreciation Day Winners!

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In no particular order — the five winners… As a Chief Investment Strategist that oversees a significant amount of assets, it is vital to have unbiased research that we can lean on for decision making. Brian and the Valuentum team help provide a disciplined and fundamental approach to stock analysis without the typical Wall Street bias or conflicts of interest. The value we get on a monthly basis for having this detailed thought analysis and wise long-term thinking greatly outweighs the cost. We are very happy to have them on our short list of management we trust.  – Stephen H. (October 2022) —– I’d like you to know what my takeaways are from your research: 1) Be wary of capital … Read more

New Payment Option! Valuentum Research Update!

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Hi everyone: — We’re excited to say that we’re adding additional payment flexibility at Valuentum. — Many members have expressed interest in paying via other providers, and we have added Square to the mix. You can use credit or debit card or bank (ACH) to pay via invoice. — With all of the goings-on in the financial technology and payments space, we wanted to continue to provide members options to pay their memberships how they want and through who they want. You can always reach out to us at info@valuentum.com. — You’ll notice that we’ve also tightened our focus at Valuentum during the past 12-24 months in advance of what has certainly become a more difficult 2022 than even some … Read more

Recent Fair Value Estimate Updates

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Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA  Our work is always forward-looking in nature, consistent with the markets, which drive pricing and valuation on the basis of future expectations. 2022 has no doubt been a difficult year for many an investor across asset classes, not just equities. Perhaps the biggest insight provided by the Valuentum analyst team for this year came in the second edition of the book Value Trap, “Renowned Investor Brian Nelson Publishes Second Edition of Best Indie Book Award Winner Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation,” but such an insight has often been reiterated on our website and through the newsletters, too. To put it bluntly: We became significantly worried about the diversification benefits of the 60/40 stock/bond … Read more

Nike’s Fundamental Backdrop Speaks of Serious Impending Global Recession

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Image Source: Raul Gonzalez By Brian Nelson, CFA In a rapidly declining market as we have been witnessing the past many months, it becomes a relative “game.” Taking on outsize risk to drive positive returns is a quick way to the poor house. There are too many things working against the market for it to pull sustainably higher before year’s end, and we think investors are better off playing defense than attacking the bear. Things are bad out there, and they are likely going to get worse, “Things Are Bad Out There.” It is perfectly reasonable and understandable to have been bullish during the first half of this year, as we were, to at least give the market some breathing … Read more

Fed Raises 75 Basis Points; Food Price Inflation Continues to Wreak Havoc on Consumer Budgets

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Image Source: Federal Reserve The Fed upped its key benchmark rate to the range of 3%-3.25% on September 21, but it may not be enough to stem the rise in inflation. We think the market has further room to fall. By Brian Nelson, CFA We think the Fed is looking to crush the economy and break the will of businesses to raise prices. Unfortunately, there is only so much that hiking the federal funds rate can do, and much of the inflation that is hurting the consumer is coming in the form of food prices, and this doesn’t look like it will abate anytime soon. I had warned about a coming market “flush” in a late August video, in part … Read more

Nelson Nailed Food Price Inflation Risks; Markets Heading Lower

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Image Source: Liz West “Milk was up 17%, poultry up 15.9%, while eggs were up 39.8% in the August CPI report.” By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone: I put together a video several weeks ago on August 27, explaining how consumers were tapped out due to inflationary squeezes, particularly at the grocery store, as a big reason for being incrementally more bearish on the equity markets. The August CPI report, released September 13, showed that consumer prices advanced 8.3% on a year-over-year basis and are still accelerating, increasing 0.1 percent from July, where the pace was unchanged. Milk was up 17%, poultry up 15.9%, while eggs were up 39.8% in the August CPI report. We don’t think the market was … Read more