CVX

10 YEARS OF EXCELLENCE AT VALUENTUM

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Tickerized for the DIA. ———- About Our Name But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” and “growth,”…We view that as fuzzy thinking…Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term “value investing” is redundant.                          — Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992 At Valuentum, we take Buffett’s thoughts one step further. We think the best opportunities arise from an understanding of a variety of investing disciplines in order to identify the most attractive stocks at any given time. Valuentum therefore analyzes each stock across a wide spectrum of philosophies, from deep value through momentum investing. And a combination of the … Read more

ExxonMobil’s Immense Upside in Guyana

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Image Source: ExxonMobil Corporation – 2021 Investor Day Presentation By Callum Turcan On June 27, we added shares of ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM) as an idea to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio (link here). The backdrop for the energy complex has improved considerably in recent months. Raw energy resources pricing has surged in the wake of demand for refined petroleum products beginning to recover in earnest, while demand for various petrochemical products is also on the rise. Near-term Brent and WTI futures are trading north of $70 a barrel as of this writing, keeping in mind Brent averaged ~$60-61 per barrel and WTI averaged ~$57-$58 per barrel during the first three months of 2021. On … Read more

Two Alerts and Bull Market On!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA It’s very hard not to be bullish on the stock market these days. The prudence exercised by many of the largest companies in the S&P 500 remains unprecedented, in our view. Some of the best companies out there have tremendous balance sheets, as evidenced by huge net cash positions. Perhaps two of our favorite companies, Microsoft (MSFT) and Facebook (FB) are the best examples of this, but Apple (AAPL) still retains quite the large net cash hoard as it works to net-cash breakeven. As we look at the next couple years, most investors will continue to focus on the Fed. We’ve seen this song and dance following the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) that wreaked havoc on … Read more

Energy: A Small Part of the S&P 500 But Making a Comeback

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Image Source: Bureau of Land Management By Callum Turcan and Brian Nelson, CFA The energy sector remains a small part of the S&P 500 (SPY), coming in at just ~3% nowadays. Collapsing energy resource prices, overspending on capital projects, and a fallout in the pipeline MLP space have been primary causes for the sector’s ever-shrinking representation in the S&P 500 over the past five years or so, but we still think some exposure is warranted. For starters, we currently include a 1-2% weighting in the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) and a 3%-5% weighting in energy-heavy Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. During the past several months, raw energy resource pricing, from crude oil (USO) to natural … Read more

ICYMI: Watch Valuentum’s November 2019 Presentation on ‘Value Trap’ Now!

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Watch Valuentum’s November 2019 Presentation on ‘Value Trap’ Now! — To view the November 2019 presentation of Valuentum’s book, Value Trap, please select the following link to continue: — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-n9o9gYKdE&feature=youtu.be — — The November 2019 presentation to the Los Angeles chapter of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) of Valuentum’s President of Investment Research Brian M. Nelson’s new book, Value Trap, covers the pitfalls of valuation multiple analysis, traditional quantitative analysis (e.g., value factor, size factor) and the great contradiction between factor investing and the efficient markets hypothesis.  — The November 2019 presentation shows how enterprise valuation rests at the intersection of behavioral economics, quantitative theory, equity valuation and therefore finance itself. Nelson talks about how enterprise valuation can be used … Read more

ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline

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ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline — — In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He’ll talk about which companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he’s avoiding. This and more in Valuentum’s 2020 Exclusive conference call.   Note: This video was originally published August 2, 2020.    To watch the video >>   The Theory of Universal Valuation —– Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, … Read more

Markets Back on Track – Seeking Net-Cash-Rich, Free Cash Flow Generators with Pricing Power!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The past few trading sessions have tested the conviction of many equity holders, but we remain focused on the long run and believe the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio (available to registered members of that publication) are well positioned for long-term capital appreciation potential, dividend growth potential, and sustainable high yield dividend income, respectively. During the trading session May 13, the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio was led by some of our favorite net-cash-rich, free-cash-flow powerhouses. Moving convincingly higher, Apple (AAPL), Cisco (CSCO) and Microsoft (MSFT) have strong net cash positions on the balance sheet and generate impressive free cash flow well in excess of expected cash … Read more

Energy Earnings Roundup: CVX and XOM

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Image Source: Exxon Mobil Corporation – 2020 IR Presentation In ticker by alphabetical order: CVX, XOM By Callum Turcan Several integrated oil and gas companies recently reported earnings for the final quarter of 2020, and as expected, these were brutal reports. The coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic weighed negatively on global demand for raw energy resources (crude oil, natural gas, natural gas liquids), refined petroleum products (gasoline, diesel, kerosene), and certain petrochemicals last year which created massive headwinds for the oil and gas industry across the board. Subdued raw energy resources pricing and lackluster refined petroleum product demand were the two big obstacles for the industry as those dynamics severely weakened the economics of upstream (involved in the extraction of raw energy … Read more

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios

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January 27, 2021 ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios We are raising the cash position in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. You can read the 2020 recap here. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we’re raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially … Read more