CSCO

Cisco Systems Remains Resilient During These Challenging Times

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Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On May 13, Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) reported earnings for the third quarter of its fiscal 2020 (period ended April 25, 2020) that beat consensus estimates on both the top- and bottom-lines. Within the report, management provided guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter that wasn’t as bad as the market had feared. Though the firm’s revenues are still expected to decline by high single-digits to low double-digits on a year-over-year basis in the fiscal fourth quarter, the market was expecting a significantly worse impact from the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic as it relates to Cisco Systems’ financial performance. Shares of CSCO yield ~3.3% … Read more

Valuentum’s COVID-19 Ideas Have Outperformed Significantly

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Image Shown: Valuentum released two sets of its top 10 ideas for capital appreciation and dividend growth, respectively, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both sets of ideas have performed extremely well. —By Brian Nelson, CFA —Hi everyone, — I wanted to check in to see how you are doing. I’ll talk a little about the table above in a bit, which goes into our top ideas amid the COVID-19 pandemic, but first, I wanted to keep the Exclusive publication in front of you (if you haven’t yet subscribed). In the Exclusive publication, we’re now setting up to get the 26th consecutive monthly short idea correct! I can hardly believe it.  — The May edition was released last Saturday, and our team continues to … Read more

ALERT: Going to “Fully Invested” — The Fed and Treasury Have Your Back

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Image Source: BEA. Real GDP fell at an annual pace of 4.8% in the first quarter of 2020, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Summary For members to our new options commentary service, the second April options idea will be released tomorrow. We’re taking the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested,” scaling up our existing positions to reflect that status. We plan to consider put options to hedge against downside risk, if or when the time comes. Moral hazard continues to run rampant, and the Fed and Treasury may have no choice but to continue artificially propping up this market, even buying stocks through certain vehicles, if necessary. … Read more

Intel Is Well-Positioned to Ride Out the Storm

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Image Source: Intel Corporation – January 2020 CES Presentation By Callum Turcan Intel Corporation (INTC) reported first-quarter earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended March 28, 2020) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates; however, guidance for the fiscal second quarter was softer than expected and shares of INTC initially sold off on the report. However, there’s a lot to like in the update, and we continue to like shares of Intel as a holding in both the Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. Intel is very well-positioned to ride out the storm caused by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, and shares of INTC yield ~2.3% as of this writing. Balance Sheet Strength The firm had $20.8 billion … Read more

Emergency Update on COVID-19

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President of Investment Research at Valuentum, Brian Nelson provides an emergency update on COVID-19. He talks about how policymakers have dropped the ball thus far, and why investors should not let their guards down, despite what has been a nice bounce from the March 23 bottom. As of April 24, the world has now borne witness to the deaths of nearly 182,000 people from Coronavirus disease, or COVID-19, with more than 2.6 million confirmed cases. The United States remains the epicenter of the global pandemic with the country confirming 830,000 cases and more than 42,000 deaths. The sad reality is that, despite the many months that have now passed, medical professionals know little more about the disease than when news … Read more

What To Do Now?

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— Dear members: — It’s Brian here. It seems like I went to bed February 22 after writing the following note to you — Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus and P/E Ratios — and just woke up now. That’s how crazy the markets have been. It’s been two months of a whirlwind of a ride. For those just joining today, we recapped the events since our warning about the Great Crash of 2020 on February 22 in the following two videos — The Question Is If the Economy Can Be Held Together Without Vast Equity Dilution (April 12) and Will Hasty Policy Facilitate the Next Leg Down, or Do We Have It Coming Anyway? (April 19). — Before going on, I want to pause … Read more

ICYMI — Video: The Question Is If the Economy Can Be Held Together Without Vast Equity Dilution

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President of Investment Research at Valuentum and award-winning author of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation Brian Nelson explains how the range of probable fair value outcomes of S&P 500 companies has increased as a result of COVID-19 and possible equity dilution on the downside to long-run inflationary pressures on stocks driven by runaway Fed and Treasury stimulus on the upside. — Editor’s note: Brian emphasizes the importance of “expert analysis” over “backward-looking analysis,” and we would like to clarify that he is not giving personalized advice. Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are … Read more

ASML Holding Is an Impressive Enterprise with a Pristine Balance Sheet and Rock-Solid Growth Trajectory

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Image Source: ASML Holding NV – 2019 Annual Report By Callum Turcan Netherlands-based ASML Holding NV (ASML) supplies lithography systems and services to the makers of semiconductors and semiconductor components, primarily to firms with operations in East Asian and US markets. The firm’s stock price has rebounded sharply since the middle of March 2020, and as of this writing, shares of ASML yield ~1.1% (due to the firm paying out its dividend in euro, there are foreign currency effects to be aware of). We like ASML’s focus on innovation, its pristine balance sheet, rock-solid growth trajectory, and quality cash flow profile. Given the complexities of this company and the space it caters to, we will provide an overview of its … Read more

Repub from July 2019 — The Valuentum Economic Roundtable

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This article was published July 23, 2019. We sat down with the Valuentum team to get their thoughts on the global economy and key issues that may threaten this near 10-year bull market. Let’s start with Valuentum’s Bank and Financials Contributor Matthew Warren, and then we’ll go around the horn. Matthew Warren: It’s interesting what’s happening at the nexus of the consumer and various retailers. It reminds me of the pockets of discretionary weakness back in 2008. I made money on Men’s Warehouse (TLRD) puts back then. Nobody is really in a rush to buy a suit, especially if they are concerned about their job prospects. At least we only have CLOs (collateralized loan obligations) and Europe/China stress to ponder … Read more

Bullets: Recapping the Crash, Where Are We Now?

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Image: The S&P 500 has only retraced a small part of its decline since the top in February 2020. By Brian Nelson, CFA In August 2019, Valuentum took a cautious bent on the markets, removing the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE), raising cash at the time. Financials and energy have been material underperformers during the swoon, with the Fed/Treasury launching more stimulus than the Great Financial Crisis and Saudi Arabia/Russia continuing their oil-price war. Here’s what we said in August 2019: August 2019: There are myriad risks as we near the end of this now-decade long bull market: a US-China trade/currency war, slowing global economic growth (Germany’s economic growth turned negative during the … Read more