CRSP

Vertex Reports Strong Q2, Trial Setback Punishes Shares

by

Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On August 4, Vertex Pharma (VRTX) reported strong second quarter results with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in better than expected. The solid performance, however, was overshadowed by a disappointment in its pipeline for pain management: Vertex announced results from its Phase 2 placebo-controlled dose-ranging study evaluating the safety and efficacy of VX-993, an investigational selective NaV1.8 pain signal inhibitor, in treating acute pain after bunionectomy surgery. Treatment with VX-993 did not result in a statistically significant improvement on the primary endpoint of the time-weighted sum of the pain intensity difference from 0 to 48 hours (SPID48) compared to placebo. VX-993 was generally safe and well-tolerated. Based on these results, … Read more

What Causes Fair Value Estimates to Change?

by

Image: A screenshot of the discounted cash-flow model learning tool for individual investors. By Brian Nelson, CFA If you’ve been a member of Valuentum for a while, you’ll notice that when we update a stock report, our estimate of a company’s fair value and the firm’s Valuentum Buying Index ratings can change. This is completely normal and should be expected (over time, companies generate cash and stock prices change). But sometimes the changes can be confusing, particularly if they are material (i.e. 10%, 20%, or more). In this article, let’s talk about why changes are standard operating procedure for investment research publishers. First, some background. Our estimate of a company’s fair value is driven by myriad factors. To derive a … Read more

The Difference Between Speculation and Investment

by

Brian Nelson, President of Investment Research at Valuentum, discusses the difference between speculation and investment.  Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. I’d like to talk about the concept of speculation. I think it is best taught with a story perhaps, one of my personal experiences. I used to work on the buy side and one of the more interesting stocks that I pitched in my experience was a company called Synaptics (SYNA). This must have been in 2004-2005 — almost 20 years ago now. Synaptics made an interface for a number of electronic devices, and what it held was some of the technological building blocks for a click-wheel technology. About a year or two later following that … Read more

Vertex Pharma Hits All-Time Highs!

by

Image: Vertex Pharma is one of our favorite biotech ideas, and the company continues to power to new highs. By Brian Nelson, CFA Shares of Vertex Pharma (VRTX) have advanced nearly 35% so far year-to-date, and the company remains one of the best positioned biopharma names, boasting a lucrative cystic fibrosis (CF) franchise and potential novel therapies in acute pain management and other areas, including CRISPR gene-editing therapy. Though revenue didn’t quite come in-line with expectations in its third quarter report, released November 6, Vertex did raise its full year 2023 product revenue guidance to ~$9.85 billion as the firm will launch its CF therapy TRIKAFTA in the 2-5 age group and as its TRIKAFTA/KAFTRIO combination experiences increased demand internationally. Here … Read more

FDA Accepts License Application for Vertex Pharma’s and CRISPR Therapeutics’ Key Investigational Treatment

by

  Image: Vertex’s pipeline is impressive. We like its areas of focus and the progress it continues to make with key therapies in CRISPR and pain management. By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 8, it was announced that the Biologics License Applications (BLAs) for the investigational treatment exagamglogene autotemcel (exa-cel) for sickle cell disease (SCD) and transfusion-dependent beta thalassemia (TDT) from two of our favorite speculative biotech entities Vertex Pharma (VRTX) and CRISPR Therapeutics (CRSP) have been accepted by the U.S. FDA. The submission received Priority Review for SCD, and exa-cel has the potential to be the first CRISPR gene-editing therapy to be approved. We continue to be huge fans of this technology and Vertex’s risk-adjusted exposure to the potential … Read more

Net-Cash-Rich Vertex Pharma’s Lucrative Cystic Fibrosis Franchise Continues to Power Performance

by

Image Source: Vertex Pharma By Brian Nelson, CFA There are two primary sources of cash-based intrinsic value that we focus on at Valuentum—net cash on the balance sheet and future expectations of free cash flow. Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Vertex Pharma (VRTX) ended 2022 with $10.78 billion in cash and cash equivalents and no debt, while cash flow remains robust. For example, during the first nine months of 2022, the company hauled in $3.05 billion in cash flow from operations and only shelled out $171.1 million in capital spending. That speaks to a hugely cash generative operation. As a biotech play, Vertex Pharma offers investors the best of both worlds, in our view: 1) It’s an established, net-cash-rich player … Read more

Moderna’s Personalized Cancer Vaccine (PCV) Could Be a Game-Changer When Combined with Merck’s KEYTRUDA

by

Image: Moderna’s therapeutics pipeline continues to advance, and the company recently received positive news regarding its personalized cancer vaccine (PCV), ID # mRNA-4157, when combined with Merck’s KEYTRUDA. Image Source: Moderna By Brian Nelson, CFA Modern medicine continues to advance. Our favorite idea in biotech remains Vertex Pharma (VRTX), which has a fantastic and commercialized cystic fibrosis portfolio and exposure to CRISPR technology, but the latest data to turn our heads came from Moderna’s (MRNA) personalized cancer vaccine (PCV). Investors perhaps are most familiar with Moderna in part because it has produced one of four authorized COVID-19 vaccines available for use in the US: Pfizer (PFE)-BioNTech’s (BNTX), Novavax’s (NVAX), Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) and Moderna’s. The PFE-BNTX and MRNA vaccines … Read more

Best Idea Vertex Pharma Outperforming in 2022

by

Image Shown: Shares of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc, an idea included in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, have performed incredibly well year-to-date through October 2022. By Callum Turcan Through the end of normal trading hours on October 7, shares of Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) are up ~34% year-to-date on a price-only basis. We include shares of Vertex Pharma as an idea in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and remain huge fans of the name. Vertex Pharma’s commercialized drug portfolio consists of various treatments for cystic fibrosis (‘CF’) and the cash flows generated from sales of these therapeutics are used to invest in the biotech company’s robust drug development pipeline. Earnings and Guidance Update On August 4, Vertex Pharma reported second … Read more

Video: How Many Stocks Should You Own?

by

Video: Valuentum’s President of Investment Research, Brian Nelson, CFA, explains the importance of diversification, how to think about firm-specific and systematic risk, how many stocks one should own to achieve 90% of the diversification benefits, how to think about active asset allocation versus active equity management, and why diversification is a means to achieve goals, not the goal itself. A content-packed 14-minute video. Don’t miss it! –——— Tickerized for holdings in the ARKK. Also tickerized for META, PYPL. Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE. Some of the other securities written about in this article may … Read more

We’ve Suspended Coverage of Stocks in the Disruptive Innovation Industry

by

Order the Exclusive publication here to gain access to idea generation that covers some of the most innovative stocks. As a member to the Exclusive publication, you’ll receive one income idea, one capital appreciation idea, and one short idea consideration each month! Order today >> — We’ve suspended coverage of stocks in the ‘Disruptive Innovation’ industry. The ‘Disruptive Innovation’ industry is unique in almost every way. The companies included don’t necessarily share a similar traditional industry or sector make-up, but they do share one big thing in common: They continue to disrupt the traditional way of doing things. Carvana is changing how consumers buy used cars, Roku is leading the streaming charge against linear TV, Teradyne’s industrial robotics technology is … Read more