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UnitedHealth Remains on Our Radar for Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio

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Image: On a price-only basis, from the beginning of 2008, UnitedHealth’s shares have advanced ~600%, while the S&P 500 has increased ~150%. The measurement period covers both the Obama and Trump administrations. By Brian Nelson, CFA UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is a name that we don’t dedicate a lot of resources to, as we tend to prefer diversified exposure to the healthcare arena in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio via the Healthcare Select Sector SPDR (XLV)–UnitedHealth Group is a ~8% weighting in the ETF at the time of this writing. Nonetheless, this Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) component has been under material accumulation of late based on its pricing action. Year-to-date, on a price-only basis, … Read more

3 Lessons in Portfolio Management Over 10 Years

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Dear members: — We’re finally getting a pause in the rapid ascent of the markets on September 3rd. Though headlines may look scary and momentum/volatility investors could start to pile on to the downside, a modest retracement is actually a good thing. We continue to focus on the long haul with our processes, and we’re viewing the sell-off as profit taking, for the most part. — In the near term, the markets will also have to digest some speculators betting on mean reversion between “value” (cyclical) versus “growth” (secular), but we maintain the view that the value-versus-growth conversation is largely nonsense (see block quotes below), and mean reversion is something akin to the gamblers’ fallacy, in my humble opinion. Investors should also continue … Read more

Walgreens Targets Cost Cuts and In-Store Doctors’ Offices

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Image Source: Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc – Third Quarter Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On July 9, Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (WBA) reported its third-quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 31, 2020) and raised its dividend by ~2% on a sequential basis. Walgreens has increased its annual dividend over the past 45 consecutive years, earning it Dividend Aristocrat status, though we caution its net debt load weighs negatively on its forward-looking dividend coverage. Shares of WBA yield ~4.6% as of this writing. Walgreens suspended its share buyback program to preserve cash in the face of the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic and additionally, management initiated full year guidance for Walgreens’ fiscal 2020 during its latest earnings report. … Read more

June Dividend Growth Newsletter & Intrinsic Value Investing

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“But how, you will ask, does one decide what [stocks are] “attractive”? Most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition: “value” and “growth,”…We view that as fuzzy thinking…Growth is always a component of value [and] the very term “value investing” is redundant.“  —                — Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual report, 1992 — By Brian Nelson, CFA — To add our new options commentary to your membership, please register here ($500/year). — Hi everyone!  — We remain unequivocally bullish on the markets and intrinsic value investing. We believe value today rests within companies that have strong net cash positions (all cash less short- and long-term debt) and solid expected future free cash flows … Read more

Repub from July 2019 — The Valuentum Economic Roundtable

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This article was published July 23, 2019. We sat down with the Valuentum team to get their thoughts on the global economy and key issues that may threaten this near 10-year bull market. Let’s start with Valuentum’s Bank and Financials Contributor Matthew Warren, and then we’ll go around the horn. Matthew Warren: It’s interesting what’s happening at the nexus of the consumer and various retailers. It reminds me of the pockets of discretionary weakness back in 2008. I made money on Men’s Warehouse (TLRD) puts back then. Nobody is really in a rush to buy a suit, especially if they are concerned about their job prospects. At least we only have CLOs (collateralized loan obligations) and Europe/China stress to ponder … Read more

Coronavirus Crisis Deepens, Italy on Lockdown

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Image: WHO. The epidemic curve of confirmed COVID-19 cases that have been reported outside of China is steepening. Italy remains a hotspot. By Brian Nelson, CFA The “Coronavirus Crisis” is worsening. According to the latest situation report from the World Health Organization (47), dated March 7, Italy (EWI) reported an increase of 778 new cases and 49 deaths as a result of COVID-19, increases of 20.2% and 24.9%, respectively, from the day prior. Total cases in Italy are now over 4,600 and total deaths now nearly 200, but these numbers are sure to rise in the coming days, if they have not already (the latest unofficial tally in Italy suggests new infections have risen to 5,883). The terrible news prompted … Read more

Valuentum Exclusive Success Rates Trump Even the Best Quant Hedge Funds

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Image: President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA By Brian Nelson, CFA A new book, “The Man Who Solved the Market,” hit bookshelves last year, and thus far it has been a hit. The text goes into the story of quant hedge fund Renaissance Technologies and its hedge fund, the Medallion Fund, which has put up mammoth returns since inception. Though the book focuses more on the life and times of founder Jim Simons and dedicated only a page or two to the fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), another quant fund that went belly-up during the late 1990s, it was nonetheless a thoroughly interesting and enjoyable read. But why I am bringing up one of the most successful quant … Read more

ICYMI: Interview with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA

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Catch up with Valuentum’s President Brian M. Nelson, CFA in a recent interview with dividend growth investor Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. By Brian Nelson, CFA Recently, I was interviewed by Arne Magnus Lorentzen Ulland of the blog stockles. Arne is a dividend growth investor like many of you, and I sincerely hope you enjoy the interview he put together. I’m very grateful for his interest. His questions were fantastic. We discuss why and how I incorporate independence and integrity into the service at Valuentum. We go into detail regarding why Valuentum views stocks the way it does, and how Valuentum combines enterprise valuation and the information contained in prices in its stock-selection process. I discuss the pitfalls … Read more

VBI 9-Rated AmerisourceBergen Now On Our Radar

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Let’s take a look at VBI 9-rated stock AmerisourceBergen, a pharmaceutical sourcing and distribution company that yields 2% as of this writing. We like AmerisourceBergen’s dividend growth story, strong free cash flow generation, guidance raise, and relatively low net debt load. We’ll also cover AmerisourceBergen’s downside risks as well as its upside potential. Shares appear undervalued as things stand today, with ABC trading below the low end of our fair value estimate range. By Callum Turcan Pharmaceutical sourcing and distribution company AmerisourceBergen (ABC) just popped up on our radar; its fundamentals are rock-solid and its technical readings indicate Wall Street is starting to take notice. The company just registered a 9 on the Valuentum Buying Index. This American healthcare company has consistently generated … Read more

Markets Swooning, Expect Extreme Volatility, Finger on Put-Option Trigger

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Image shown: We notified members December 26 that we had  moved  the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to a “fully invested” position, from a 30% and 20% cash “weighting” at the high end of the range, respectively.  — No change to simulated newsletter portfolios…at this time.  — Hi everyone, — Hope you’re navigating these tumultuous markets well.   — If you recall, during the holiday season last year, we had moved the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to “fully invested.” See image above (point of the arrow). Because many members were traveling and out of the office, not all were able to read the notification until a week or two after. They were … Read more