BRK.B

Fed Might Slow After All, Bank Reports Just Okay

by

Image shown: The yield curve is flattening. Source: Federal Reserve Bank, St. Louis. The biggest question with Fed policy is whether the FOMC will purposefully cause an inversion in the yield curve. If it thinks the market is manipulating long rates to influence its policy, it may very well go forward with rate hikes. If it doesn’t, it may very well slow the pace of rate hikes or even pause them. The behavioral implications of a yield-curve inversion may be more significant than the inversion, itself, however. No Changes to Simulated Newsletter portfolios Brian Nelson, CFA On January 10, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard offered a number of perspectives on 2019 monetary policy. … Read more

Value Trap, More Volatility; We’re Waiting and Watching

by

Image shown: The decision to remove GE from the simulated newsletter portfolios when we did may have been our best call yet.  In this note, let’s talk about the importance of reading Value Trap, learn why we’ve gone “fully invested,” talk a little bit about put options, learn some of the intricacies of the Valuentum process, find out where to find VBI rankings to download and sort, and talk about some of our recently-highlighted ideas in the simulated newsletter portfolios. No Changes to Simulated Newsletter portfolios Brian Nelson, CFA Trust you are having a wonderful Monday morning! I hope that many of you made the conference call last Thursday at 11amET, but if you didn’t, we’ll have another one coming soon. … Read more

The Intricacies of the Valuentum Process

by

Let’s take a quick overview of the Valuentum processes for capital appreciation and dividend growth with a discussion of how we use the Valuentum Buying Index and the Dividend Cushion ratio. By Brian Nelson, CFA There is a lot behind the Valuentum processes for capital appreciation and dividend growth, respectively, and both the criteria for inclusion to either the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio are different. Our best ideas at any time, however, are always included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We use our research as a means to identify new ideas for consideration in the simulated newsletter portfolios, as well as to consider removing ideas from the simulated newsletter portfolios. As it relates to … Read more

Catching the Bottom?

by

Image shown: The depths of how far the S&P 500 (SPY) has fallen more recently, and the timing of the decision to move to being “fully invested” in simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio.   No Changes to Simulated Newsletter portfolios. This article was sent to members via email January 9. That email can be found at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA On the evening of December 26, we emailed members that we were moving to “fully invested” in both the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. First of all, please let me apologize. I wanted to stay in front of members during one of the most volatile times … Read more

Markets Up Big; Upside Volatility

by

Image shown: The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since August 2017. The index has broken through support and is now bouncing back to resistance. By Brian Nelson, CFA Good morning everyone, Are you watching these markets? This is incredible. The Dow finished down 660 points yesterday (briefly dropping 700 points), and today, the Dow is currently trading up 600 points at the time of this writing. Granted, there was Apple’s (AAPL) poor first-quarter 2019 guidance yesterday and the strong jobs report today, but this volatility is not “normal,” no matter what others are saying. A couple announcements up front. For those that already ordered our book Value Trap, I will send you the pdf download to your email address just to make sure … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

by

This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

by

During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Not Bad Thus Far in 2018

by

Part of what we take pride in at Valuentum is telling things how they are. If things are going great, we let you know. If things aren’t going as good as they could be, we don’t hold back. In the year of crypto and cannabis, 2018 hasn’t been the best year for the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, but it hasn’t been bad either.  By Brian Nelson, CFA We wrote up an extensive piece on the background of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio earlier this year, and we encourage everyone to have a read of that here (pdf). We made some changes to the goals of the newsletter portfolio prior to the beginning of this year. For starters, we … Read more

In The News: Hurricane Florence, Tariffs and Capital Spending Delays, Kroger and Big Tobacco on the Move

by

  Let’s take a look at some of the top stories across the market, including the impact tariffs are having on capital spending plans and bottom lines and recent developments in big tobacco. By Kris Rosemann As Hurricane Florence bears down on the East Coast of the US, risk modeling firm RMS believes US insurers should be bracing for $20 billion in losses. More than 1 million people have been ordered to evacuate the area, and the threat of a combination of storm surge, wind, and inland flooding may prove to be significant as Duke Energy (DUK) estimates 1-3 million customers may be left without power across North and South Carolina. Privately-held Liberty Mutual Insurance and Nationwide Mutual Insurance are … Read more

The Berkshire Breakout

by

Image shown: Berkshire Hathaway’s shares have broken out following the release of its second-quarter 2018 results. We continue to believe Berkshire Hathaway belongs in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have more flexibility to pursue share buybacks, and we’d be flat-out surprised if Berkshire were to buy Southwest outright. Berkshire’s cash balance continues to grow, and we think a stake in Facebook might be the best opportunity for a part of the equity security allocation. By Brian Nelson, CFA Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) reported solid second-quarter results August 4 that sent the stock roaring higher, and B-shares of the equity are now but a stone’s throw away from all-time highs of ~$218, trading at ~$206 … Read more