BP

Chevron: Cash Flow and Dividends Are Inextricably Linked

by

We think it’s worth reviewing case studies at times to help members build a greater understanding of and an increased conviction in the products, tools, and proprietary analysis we make available to them. In the case of Chevron (CVX), the efficacy of the Dividend Cushion ratio in helping to predict a company’s future dividend policy was undeniable. The Dividend Cushion ratio is calculated for every non-financial operating company in our coverage universe and can be found in the data strip at the top of each firm’s Dividend Report. A ratio above 1.25 is generally viewed as GOOD. For new members, Chevron had been a holding in the Dividend Growth portfolio since its inception. However, the company was removed from the … Read more

Are the Oil & Gas Markets Doomed?

by

Q: Are the oil and gas markets doomed? Valuentum’s Brian Nelson: In short, no. For one, if we thought the oil and gas space (XLE) were doomed, we would not be holding onto Chevron (CVX), Kinder Morgan (KMI), and Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) in the Dividend Growth portfolio. Instead, I think what we are witnessing in the oil and gas market is a flight to quality and balance-sheet strength. Our outlook for oil and gas equities has not changed before or after the recent fall in energy prices. Valuentum’s thesis accepts the fact that crude oil (USO) and natural gas prices will be extremely volatile, and that’s why we’ve gravitated toward firms such as Chevron, which has the strongest balance … Read more

$45 Oil Prices!?!? There Is Never a Sense of Urgency When One Is Prepared

by

Image Source: Macrotrends The bull market in energy (XLE) has lasted for the better part of a decade. Ever since the turn of the new century, energy perma-bulls have made the case that “black gold” (USO) should continue its ever-upward price advance thanks to ongoing demand from emerging and developing economies coupled with reduced inventories and areas of supply. We’re seeing this thesis challenged right at this moment. In deciding not to cut crude oil output in the face of oversupply and falling prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), for the lack of a better phrase, is now essentially engaged in a price war with producers in the US that are using breakthrough technology to produce oil … Read more

Look Out Below: Crude Oil Prices Continue to Tumble

by

West Texas Intermediate crude oil (Dec’14) fell under $75 per barrel today, now almost $30 lower than its 52-week high, reaching the lowest level since September 2010. Brent crude also fell to a four-year low. We view the move in crude as a net-negative for the economy and S&P 500 earnings, even though many from transportation to retail will benefit from lower energy costs. The energy sector accounts for roughly 10% of the S&P 500 (SPY), and ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) top the index’s top 10 holdings.  We think falling crude oil prices are more a reflection of expectations for declining global economic activity, which in itself, signals that trouble is on the horizon. North American shale production continues … Read more

Dividend Increases for the Week Ending October 31

by

Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending October 31. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Access Midstream Partners (ACMP): now $0.615 per share quarterly distribution, was $0.5950. AFLAC (AFL): now $0.39 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.37. Allison Transmission (ALSN): now $0.15 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.12. Associated Banc (ASBC): now $0.10 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.09. Atlas Energy (ATLS): now $0.52 per share quarterly distribution, was $0.49. Atlas Pipeline (APL): now $0.64 per share quarterly distribution, was $0.63. … Read more

Big Oil Round Up: Earnings Portal

by

Our take on the major oil and gas space remains little changed as a result of second-quarter results from the majors. We continue to expect rising energy prices over the long haul, and we highly encourage new readers to take a look at our comprehensive outlook for oil and gas prices. Please access it at the following link: ‘Our Comprehensive Outlook for Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices.’ We have a very unique thesis on the group, and for holders of exploration and production entities, we expect a long-term tailwind in investors’ favor. Generally,it’s difficult not to like many entities in the large oil and gas space. ConocoPhillips continues to execute nicely, while Exxon remains a consistently strong economic-value generator … Read more

Valuentum Economic Castleâ„¢ Rating Update

by

Read: Keeping the Horse Before the Cart: Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ Rating The Economic Castle Focuses on the Magnitude of Economic Value Creation The Valuentum Economic Castle™ rating is an enhancement of the competitive advantage framework (commonly known as economic moat analysis) that has become widespread and ubiquitous within the investing world. Whereas an economic moat framework evaluates a firm on the basis of the sustainability and durability of its competitive advantages, Valuentum’s Economic Castle™ rating evaluates a firm on the basis of the firm’s future economic profit spread (return on invested capital less its weighted average cost of capital). The companies with the strongest Valuentum Economic Castle™ ratings are poised to generate the most economic value for shareholders in the … Read more

Why We’re Keeping Chevron As Our Favorite Dividend Growth Idea in Big Oil

by

Our dividend growth thesis on Chevron (CVX) has been rather simple at the core: For investors seeking dividend growth exposure to Big Oil, Chevron hands-down has the most financial flexibility of all the majors – irrespective of what happens to energy prices – and therefore, we think the firm is extremely well-positioned among its peer group to have the best dividend growth prospects through the course of the multi-year (and inevitably volatile) energy price cycle. A look at a breakdown among the net cash positions across the energy majors in the third quarter of last year, for example, shows Chevron with a net-neutral net cash position, while its peers BP (BP), Exxon (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP) and Shell (RDS) all revealed … Read more

Chevron’s Balance Sheet Slowly Losing Luster

by

Energy giant Chevron (CVX) posted lackluster fourth-quarter results Friday. Though we were largely expecting the results (given the preannouncement earlier this month), we were quite disappointed with the performance of the company’s balance sheet, as the firm has now swung from a net cash position to a net debt position. Part of the reason we hold Chevron in the portfolio of the Dividend Growth Newsletter originates from its pristine balance sheet, which we view as a necessity for us to hold onto a commodity-producing entity through the course of the economic cycle (especially for dividend growth). However, we can’t really say Chevron’s balance sheet is pristine anymore, as its $16.2 billion in cash at the end of 2013 now falls … Read more

Chevron Releases Fourth Quarter Update

by

The fundamentals of a commodity-producing business are cutthroat. Not only are the prices of the relevant commodity extremely volatile, but a focus on the cost structure associated with extracting and producing the commodity is first and foremost on executives’ minds. Excessive financial leverage (a hefty debt load) doesn’t mix well with the uncertainty of a commodity-producing company’s operations, increasing the risk of financial distress during the depths of the economic and/or commodity pricing cycle. The latter consideration is why we prefer Chevron (CVX) as one of our top dividend growth ideas in the energy sector; unlike its major energy peers, the company has negligible net debt, offering significant financial flexibility to scoop up undervalued assets or to advance its lofty dividend. … Read more