AXP

Nelson: I’m Not Worried About This Market

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Dear members: — First of all, I wanted to share a heartfelt thank you to all that sent kind words regarding the passing of my brother. My inbox was overflowing with your love and kindness. Len was a great person and my best friend. Without him, I don’t think Valuentum would have come into existence. Your words have been very comforting to me and my family during this difficult time. Thank you again. — With that said, I continue to be bullish on the markets over the long haul. We maintain our view that longer-duration enterprise free cash flows are worth more than they were prior to the COVID-19 market collapse, and valuation adjustments are being reset higher as a … Read more

Apple’s Growing Financial Tech Business

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Image Shown: Shares of Apple Inc, a holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios, have surged higher year-to-date. We see room for additional capital appreciation upside. By Callum Turcan We continue to be huge fans of Apple Inc (AAPL), and shares of the tech giant are included as a holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. Our fair value estimate for Apple sits at $140 per share, comfortably above where shares of AAPL are trading at as of this writing, indicating there is room for meaningful capital appreciation upside. Additionally, shares of AAPL yield a modest ~0.7% as of this writing, and we view its forward-looking dividend growth trajectory quite … Read more

Third-Level Thinking and “Keynesian Convergence”

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Image: The analytical process of the Valuentum Buying Index rating system.  By Brian Nelson, CFA In the 2011 book, The Most Important Thing, co-founder of asset management firm Oaktree Capital Management, Howard Marks, divided stock market analytics into two levels of thinking, first-level and second-level. Marks used a few examples to explain the difference between these two levels of thinking: First-level thinking says, “It’s a good company; let’s buy the stock.” Second level thinking says, “It’s a good company, but everyone thinks it’s a great company, and it’s not. So the stock’s overrated and overpriced; let’s sell.” First-level thinking says, “The outlook calls for low growth and rising inflation. Let’s dump our stocks.” Second-level thinking says, “The outlook stinks, but … Read more

3 Lessons in Portfolio Management Over 10 Years

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Dear members: — We’re finally getting a pause in the rapid ascent of the markets on September 3rd. Though headlines may look scary and momentum/volatility investors could start to pile on to the downside, a modest retracement is actually a good thing. We continue to focus on the long haul with our processes, and we’re viewing the sell-off as profit taking, for the most part. — In the near term, the markets will also have to digest some speculators betting on mean reversion between “value” (cyclical) versus “growth” (secular), but we maintain the view that the value-versus-growth conversation is largely nonsense (see block quotes below), and mean reversion is something akin to the gamblers’ fallacy, in my humble opinion. Investors should also continue … Read more

Valuentum Website Overview

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Overview of the key features of valuentum.com/ (03:55). Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports, dividend reports, and ETF reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. The Benefits of Premium Membership >> Subscribe Now!

Visa Remains Resilient in the Face of COVID-19

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Image Shown: Visa Inc remained a free cash flow cow last fiscal quarter in the face of the pandemic. Image Source: Visa Inc – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On July 29, Visa Inc (V) reported third quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended June 30, 2020) that missed consensus top-line estimates and beat consensus bottom-line estimates. The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic weighed on travel-related purchases across Visa’s cardholder base, a dynamic that held down cross-border transactions which tend to be more lucrative for the payment processor. Keeping pandemic-related headwinds in mind, the company noted its performance was improving in several key markets around the world. We continue to like Visa as a top-weighted holding … Read more

PayPal Posts a Tremendous Quarterly Report, Reinstates Guidance

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Image Shown: PayPal Holdings Inc put up tremendous performance during the first half of 2020 as consumers are increasingly shopping online. In the second quarter of 2020, PayPal continued to grow at a decent clip even in the face of the ongoing pandemic. Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc – Second Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan After the market close July 29, PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) reported second quarter 2020 earnings that beat consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Shares of PYPL moved sharply higher after the report was published, and we continue to like PayPal as a holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. Our fair value estimate sits at $200 per share of PYPL, comfortably above … Read more

Earnings Brief: SAM, MAT, TOT, HON, AXP

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Image Source: Boston Beer. CEO Dave Burwick noted in Boston Beer’s second-quarter press release: “The growth of the Truly brand, led by Truly Hard Lemonade, has accelerated and continues to grow beyond our expectations. Since early January, Truly has grown its velocity and its market share sequentially while other national, regional and local hard seltzer brands have entered the category. Truly is the only hard seltzer, not introduced earlier this year, to grow its share during 2020.” We’re impressed, but still taking a cautious view on SAM’s shares. By Callum Turcan and Brian Nelson, CFA Boston Beer Shares Truly Go Parabolic On July 23, Boston Beer (SAM) reported second-quarter results that blew away the consensus analyst forecasts. Net revenue advanced … Read more

Goldman Posts a Blowout Quarter

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While we still do not like the private ($17 billion) and public equity ($3 billion) positions on Goldman’s balance sheet, we acknowledge that the firm is working them lower through sales and that the bank is aiming to increase managed funds instead. This move is overdue and will help reduce the risk profile of the firm. Though the quarter showed the massive revenue potential of Goldman when markets are at fairly high levels and with extreme volatility, it is difficult to value these earnings streams, given the notoriously volatile nature of the key segments of investment banking and markets (trading). By Matthew Warren Goldman Sachs (GS) posted blowout second-quarter results July 15 thanks to its notoriously volatile Markets and Investment … Read more

Banks & Money Centers Industry Report

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Select the link to download the pdf report below. Thank you! We’ll talk about how banks make money, and the three most important costs of running a bank. The Great Financial Crisis revealed the tremendous risks of banking equities, and we’ll walk through these in depth. We’ll discuss how to conceptualize where we are in the banking cycle, and how that helps inform our valuation process for banks, which is different than traditional operating entities. The stress tests have helped many of the big banks from pursuing hazardous endeavors during the past decade, and we’ll go into how to think about the yield curve in the context of banks. Investors should expect ongoing digitalization of banks and increased M&A as … Read more