AVGO

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Nvidia Shines in Second Quarter of Fiscal 2026

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Image Source: Nvidia By Brian Nelson, CFA On August 27, market darling Nvidia (NVDA) reported better than expected fiscal second quarter results with both revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in ahead of the consensus forecast. Total revenue increased 56% from the year-ago period, to $46.74 billion (consensus was at $46.13 billion), with Data Center revenue of $41.1 billion advancing by a similar clip, the latter coming in slightly below the consensus estimate of $41.29 billion. In the quarter, GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins were 72.4% and 72.7%, respectively. GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share were $1.08 and $1.05, respectively. Consensus was at $1.01. Blackwell Data Center revenue increased 17% on a sequential basis, and there were no … Read more

Broadcom Is a Cash Cow

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Image: Broadcom’s shares have done quite well the past few years. By Brian Nelson, CFA On June 5, Broadcom (AVGO) reported second quarter fiscal 2025 results that came in better than expected on both the top and bottom lines. Revenue increased 20% from the same period a year ago, to $15 billion, while non-GAAP net income came in at $7.8 billion, up from $5.4 billion in the same period last year. Adjusted EBITDA of $10 billion was 67% of revenue and better than the $7.4 billion achieved in last year’s quarter. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.58 for the second quarter versus $1.10 in last year’s quarter. Management had the following to say about the quarter: Broadcom achieved record … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

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Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

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By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more

Broadcom Remains a Free Cash Flow Cow

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Image: Broadcom’s shares have done quite well since the beginning of 2023. By Brian Nelson, CFA Broadcom (AVGO) reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 results on March 6, where revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share topped the consensus estimates. Revenue leapt 25% for the first quarter from the prior-year period, while non-GAAP net income came in at $7.8 billion in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was 68% of revenue in the first quarter, coming in at $10.08 billion. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.60 for the first quarter. Management had the following to say about performance in the press release; Broadcom’s record first quarter revenue and adjusted EBITDA were driven by both AI semiconductor solutions and infrastructure software. Q1 AI revenue grew … Read more

Taiwan Semiconductor Benefiting from Strong Smartphone and AI Demand

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Image: Taiwan Semiconductor released better than expected results. By Brian Nelson, CFA Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported excellent third quarter results on October 17. In the quarter, consolidated revenue came in at NT$759.69 billion, net income was NT$325.26 billion while diluted earnings per share was NT$12.54 (US$1.94 per ADR unit), all coming in ahead of expectations. On a year over year basis, revenue grew 39%, while net income and diluted earnings per share increased 54.2%. On a sequential basis, revenue advanced 12.8%, while net income leapt 31.2% higher. Return on equity was 33.4% in the quarter, up 7.6 percentage points on a year-over-year basis. On a US-dollar basis, third quarter revenue of $23.5 billion advanced 36% year-over-year, ahead of guidance calling … Read more

Brain Teaser – Reflexive versus Reflective

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Dear members: — Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal, wrote in his pioneering text, Your Money and Your Brain, a few fun examples of how sometimes the psychological process of anchoring and adjustment can trip us up. — In one notable example, Zweig wrote about how two psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman had asked volunteers to spin a wheel of fortune numbered from 0 to 100. The contestants didn’t know that the wheel was rigged to produce either a 10 or a 65 for the experiment. — After spinning the wheel, the contestants were then asked whether the percentage of total United Nations membership made up of countries in Africa was higher or lower than the number that came up. … Read more

Broadcom Misses with Guidance for Its Fiscal Fourth Quarter

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Image: Broadcom’s shares fell after the company issued fiscal fourth quarter guidance that came up short with respect to the consensus estimate. By Brian Nelson, CFA On September 5, Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) reported better than expected fiscal third quarter results with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus forecast. Revenue was up 47% from the same quarter a year ago, while non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $1.24 for the period. Adjusted EBITDA came in at 63% of revenue, while traditional free cash flow, as measured by cash flow from operations less all capital spending, of $4.89 billion amounted to 37% of revenue. Management was upbeat with its comments in the press release: Broadcom’s third quarter results reflect … Read more