Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio
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AMGN
Incyte’s Ongoing Disappointments and Ultragenyx’s Exciting Development
The pharma/biotech sector, unlike other mainline industries, is driven by the clinical data readouts on the next-gen molecules in the clinical pipeline. We have witnessed many exaggerated moves with an often-binary outcome on the smaller single molecule entities, but we also have witnessed a negligible impact on the broader, more-diverse industry behemoths. We wanted to touch on a few recent data readouts to illustrate the volatile, risky yet potentially lucrative nature of the industry. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways The iShares Nasdaq Biotech ETF serves as an excellent proxy for investors to gain broad exposure to a number of biotech equities, but it is not for the faint of heart. Incyte has disappointed on a number of occasions. From … Read more
ICYMI: Valuentum’s Improved Stock and ETF Web Pages
Valuentum has rolled out improved stock and ETF web pages on its website valuentum.com/. Now, subscribers can access key proprietary information on the stock and ETF web pages in addition to the customary stock and ETF reports. Dear reader, We have some exciting news that we can’t wait to share with you! At valuentum.com/, we have rolled out new stock and ETF pages that conveniently include a variety of our proprietary metrics from the Dividend Cushion ratio to the Economic Castle rating and beyond! There’s even mouseover functionality so you can learn about how we define the key metrics across our stock-selection and dividend growth methodologies. You’ll still have access to the stock and dividend reports on the landing pages, … Read more
PCSK9 Woes Weigh on Amgen and Regeneron
Image shown: Amgen and Regeneron have both meaningfully trailed the market since October of 2017. The robustness of the clinical pipeline offers an important clue regarding the health and vitality of a biotech/pharma company, as the clinical pipeline is critical towards maintaining and growing the top line. One of the most promising, and dare-we-say, overhyped new treatments to enter the market is the PCSK9 cholesterol-lowering agents, with Amgen and Regeneron leading the pack. Let’s discuss the results of Regeneron’s treatment along with a discussion of the path forward for the treatment. By Alexander J. Poulos Amgen’s Repatha The PCSK9 class is delineating into two competing treatments with little to differentiate between the two products. The key to perhaps gaining a … Read more
The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds
Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.
Gilead Sciences’ HCV Guidance Is the Star of the Show
Shares of Gilead Science have been held hostage due to the vagaries of the HCV business. The shares blasted through $100 as the initial sales ramp for its suite of HCV meds took the market by storm. The record revenues posted in 2015 proved to be unsustainable, however, as the curative nature of the treatment meaningfully decreased the eligible pool of patients much to the benefit of society. The Street subsequently punished shares of Gilead as the equity made a near roundtrip back down the high $60’s. The investment community has maintained a near-maniacal obsession with the HCV pipeline with the latest fear of a new competitor stealing share. Let’s examine these key points a bit further. By Alexander J. … Read more
2018 Healthcare and Biotech Outlook
Image Source: Global Panorama.
2017 will undoubtedly go down as one of the most fabulous years for the stock market, and while we continue to warn of the dangers associated with the market continuing to trade at lofty valuations, we are intrigued by the outlook for big cap pharma and biotech in the near term. Changes in the US tax laws will likely have a profound impact on the industry.
Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value
President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes. Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more
Celgene Implodes
The pharma/biotech industry operates in a boom-bust environment where the market cap of a company can post a meteoric rise or suffer a precipitous fall based on the data published from recently completed clinical trials. The industry remains one of the most innovative fields, but the quest for new products leads to constant disruption and a subsequent spike in volatility. Of late, the volatility pendulum for Celgene has swung in favor of the bears with the company posting a costly phase 3 failure. By Alexander J. Poulos Mongersen The vitality of the clinical pipeline, in our view, is the critical differentiator in the biotech space (XBI, IBB) due to the loss of revenue once patent protection lapses on existing products. … Read more
Restasis Patent Protection Weighing on Shares of Allergan
We have witnessed numerous examples over the years of biotech/pharma companies selling-off over fears of the length of patent protection on an essential product. The concern is well-founded–if the company relies on the product for a significant portion of sales, it may be challenging to replace, especially if the clinical pipeline is relatively bereft of viable next-generation products. We believe the recent sell-off in the shares of Allergan may now be wholly factoring in the loss of patent protection of one of its core assets in Restasis, and the equity may not be getting enough credit for its highly diversified revenue stream. By Alexander J. Poulos and Kris Rosemann Overview Allergan (AGN) in its current configuration is an amalgamation of … Read more