Member Articles

Bullets: Recapping the Crash, Where Are We Now?

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Image: The S&P 500 has only retraced a small part of its decline since the top in February 2020. By Brian Nelson, CFA In August 2019, Valuentum took a cautious bent on the markets, removing the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) and the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE), raising cash at the time. Financials and energy have been material underperformers during the swoon, with the Fed/Treasury launching more stimulus than the Great Financial Crisis and Saudi Arabia/Russia continuing their oil-price war. Here’s what we said in August 2019: August 2019: There are myriad risks as we near the end of this now-decade long bull market: a US-China trade/currency war, slowing global economic growth (Germany’s economic growth turned negative during the … Read more

Attack COVID-19 With Forward-Looking, Expected Data

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President of Investment Research at Valuentum Brian Nelson shares his financial wisdom in detailing how the world must attack COVID-19 with forward-looking expected data (not backward-looking, empirical data) as the global economy faces what could become the worst business environment since the Great Depression, irrespective of government fiscal stimulus. — Editor’s note: Brian emphasizes the importance of “expert analysis” over “backward-looking analysis,” and we would like to clarify that he is not giving personalized advice. Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are free. Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY and SCHG. Some … Read more

Republic Services is Well Prepared

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Image Source: Republic Services Inc – March 2020 COVID-19 Investor Update Presentation By Callum Turcan Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Republic Services Inc (RSG), which was added to the portfolio back on January 13, 2020 (link here), is well positioned to ride out the turbulence created by the ongoing novel coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Before getting into its recent refinancing activity, please note that roughly four-fifths of Republic Services’ revenues comes from long-term contracts, and that fundamentally, waste disposal services are almost always in demand (hard to combat a healthcare crisis if trash is piling up on the streets, sidewalks, and can’t be properly disposed of in landfills). While its financials will face some pressures from the pandemic, Republic Services should … Read more

Lululemon’s Pristine Balance Sheet and Digital Sales Channels Provides Support During These Harrowing Times

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Image Source: Lululemon Athletica Inc – Fourth Quarter of Fiscal 2019 Earnings Infographic By Callum Turcan On March 26, Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) reported fourth quarter and full-year earnings for fiscal 2019 (period ended February 2, 2020) that had some bright spots, though shares of LULU initially traded down on March 27. While the company beat on both the top- and bottom-lines, investors are growing increasingly worried about the performance of discretionary consumer goods companies in the face of the ongoing novel coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. In fiscal 2019, Lululemon’s GAAP revenues rose 21% year-over-year and its GAAP gross margin climbed by ~65 basis points, with its financial performance supported by rising direct-to-consumer sales (up 35% year-over-year) which tend to command … Read more

Grocery Outlet Is Firing on All Cylinders

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Image Shown: Discount grocer Grocery Outlet Holdings Corporation has stores in six states; Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. Image Source: Grocery Outlet – December 2019 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On March 24, discount grocer Grocery Outlet Holdings Corporation (GO) reported fourth-quarter and full fiscal-year earnings for fiscal 2019 (period ended December 28, 2019) and the firm beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates (albeit only marginally on the top-line). In the fiscal fourth quarter, the grocer’s GAAP net sales were up 12% year-over-year while Grocery Outlet went from a GAAP net loss of $5 million in the same quarter last fiscal year to a GAAP net profit of $10 million in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019. … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Independent Oil & Gas Industry

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Images Source: Anadarko Structure of the Independent Oil & Gas Industry The oil and gas business is highly competitive in the exploration, acquisition, and production of reserves. Changes in deepwater drilling laws and other regulatory initiatives can add uncertainty to operations. The trajectory of global economic growth, the actions of OPEC, and political and environmental uncertainty are other key factors. A strong balance sheet to manage through the commodity price cycle is necessary for survival. With the group’s profitability largely driven by the volatile prices of oil, natural-gas and NGLs, we’re generally not that excited about the structure of this commodity-producing space. However, the world’s growing need for energy offers tremendous opportunities for constituents. We’ve reallocated our resources to optimize … Read more

Jobless Claims Spike; Restaurants, REITs In Trouble

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Image: DOL. “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 2,898,450 in the week ending March 21, an increase of 2,647,034 (or 1,052.9 percent) from the previous week.” By Brian Nelson, CFA On March 26, the Department of Labor reported a surge in jobless claims for the week ending March 21 to 3.28 million, a number that “shatters the Great Recession peak of 665,000 in March 2009 and the all-time mark of 695,000 in October 1982.” The economic situation remains dire as the White House struggles to contain COVID-19 amid what could become one of the worst economic periods since the Great Depression, or one that can turn into the next Great Depression. We’ve written about … Read more

Nike Reports Blowout Earnings in the Face of COVID-19

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Image Shown: Shares of Nike Inc reclaimed some of their lost ground on March 25 after the sports apparel company reported a blowout earnings report. By Callum Turcan On March 24, Nike Inc (NKE) reported blowout earnings for its third quarter of fiscal 2020 (period ended February 29, 2020) with its revenues and non-GAAP EPS figures coming in well above consensus estimates. The sports apparel firm’s sales rose by 5% year-over-year on a GAAP basis, and 7% on a constant currency non-GAAP basis, due to strong growth at its Nike Direct offering (a digitally oriented direct to consumer distribution system) which helped drive 36% digital sales growth. Please note that Nike sold off its Hurley brand last fiscal quarter, which … Read more

Gut-Wrenching Volatility and Credit Facility Panic

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Image shown: Stock markets have never been this volatile in history. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — The markets are gyrating again Wednesday morning, March 25, as investors digest the passing of a stimulus package to mitigate the dire impact on the U.S. economy of the COVID-19 outbreak, which continues to run rampant around the world, with the World Health Organization pointing to the United States (New York) as the next epicenter of the virus. We’ll have more to say about the stimulus plan later today, but there are a few things I wanted to make you aware of in the meantime. — The Dow Jones Industrial Average registered its largest one-day point gain during the trading session March 24 (one of its highest percentage … Read more

US Fiscal Stimulus Update

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Image Source: frankieleon The US Congress is debating and working on a massive multi-trillion dollar fiscal stimulus package to mitigate the negative impact the ongoing novel coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic is having on the domestic economy and to provide for additional healthcare funds to cash-strapped entities to combat the virus. To read our previous US fiscal stimulus article, click here. By Callum Turcan After a failed vote on the U.S. fiscal stimulus bill (specifically, a shell bill to speed the legislative process along) in the Senate on Sunday, March 22, a program that’s worth around $1.5-$2.0 trillion (negotiations are ongoing), the legislative body picked up where it left off on Monday, March 23. After initially proposing to hold a vote in … Read more