Brian Nelson

General Motors Pops on SoftBank Deal; Dollar General Drops on Weak Customer Traffic

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We continue to believe that General Motors is one of the most attractively priced equity considerations in the market today, on the basis of its dividend yield and price-to-earnings ratio. Though Dollar General’s first-quarter results weren’t up to par, we continue to like the discount retailer. Dollar General may be more resilient than other retailers in the face of e-commerce competition and under a scenario where the economy may head south. By Brian Nelson, CFA On May 31, simulated newsletter portfolio ideas General Motors (GM) and Dollar General (DG) were in the news. General Motors is included in both the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and the simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, while Dollar General is only included in the … Read more

Strong Backdrop Driving Homebuilders’ Top Lines But Rising Costs Making Presence Known

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Image Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission Homebuilding stocks have experienced volatility following recent earnings reports from major companies in the industry. The economic backdrop for the group has translated into robust top-line growth, but cost increases have called into question the group’s ability to turn that growth into bottom-line gains, at least for some operators. By Kris Rosemann A strong job market with low levels of unemployment and rising wages are providing tailwinds to homebuilders as the US housing market recovery marches on, and rising home prices are offering additional equity for buyers to spend on new move-up homes, too. Supply remains relatively constrained while home ownership and new household formation continue to rise. For example, PulteGroup (PHM) notes that … Read more

Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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To read the study, please click on the image to download the pdf document (pdf).

Uncertainty of Italy’s Political Future Weighing on Global Investors’ Minds

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Italy holds ~$2.7 trillion in public debt, and global investors are worried that a new government could implement policies that would weaken the country’s credit status. Though a sovereign debt crisis does not seem probable at this point, bond markets are suggesting that risks are rising. By Brian Nelson, CFA We do not want investors to be worried by events unfolding in Italy (EWI) of late, as they may not be any more significant than the impact of Brexit (EWU) on equity market returns during the past few years. We can’t cast a blind eye to developments either, however, as Italy’s sovereign debt is not-at-all small by any country’s standards (it’s the third-largest in the world), and the political uncertainty … Read more

CVS Health Story Unchanged; Still Okay with Its Removal

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Image Source: Mike Mozart CVS Health continues to face long-term threats to its business, and relatively weak near-term performance expectations have done little to inspire confidence. The company’s long-term debt load has exploded as it prepares to acquire Aetna, and we don’t expect the company to bounce back onto our radar given the materially increased financial leverage amidst other challenges. By Kris Rosemann Shares of former simulated newsletter portfolios idea CVS Health (CVS) continue to face pressure, and its first quarter 2018 report, released May 2, offered little support. Our opinion of the risks facing the company are unchanged, as threats such as Amazon (AMZN) teaming up with Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A, BRK.B) and JP Morgan (JPM) to form a new healthcare company … Read more

PPL’s UK Business Provides Drag to Otherwise Strong Earnings

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Former simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio idea PPL Corp turned in strong earnings from ongoing operations growth in the first quarter of 2018 despite its UK segment, its largest business, taking a meaningful step back in the period. By Kris Rosemann It has been tough sledding for shares of former simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio idea PPL Corp (PPL) as the high-yielding utility stock has not fared well amid a rising interest-rate environment. We parted ways with the idea in December 2017 in anticipation of rising rates, and a potentially material regulatory overhang exists in pending UK legislation to enact energy price caps on electricity and gas utilities. Some observers believe the cap could be in place by Christmas 2018, … Read more

The Most Important Topic in Stock Investing

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President of Equity Research, Brian Nelson, discusses why price vs. value is the paramount consideration in stock investing. Brian Nelson, CFA: This is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities. Today, I wanted to talk about a number of investment concepts that I think are absolutely paramount for every investor to know.  The very first concept is price versus value, and this one is paramount to any investment process. Now I’m not just giving this lip service–this is just one of the core concepts of investing, equity investing. The reality of stock investing is that each company has a present value of future free cash flows that it generates, and those future free cash flows roll up to a fair value, the … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending May 25

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 25. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week American Tower (AMT): now $0.77 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.75. Apollo Tactical Income Fund (AIF): now $0.104 per share monthly dividend, was $0.10. B&G Foods (BGS): now $0.475 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.465. Bunge (BG): now $0.50 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.46. CoreSite Realty (COR): now $1.03 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.98. Cracker Barrel (CBRL): now $1.25 per share quarterly dividend, was … Read more

Understanding the Phenomenon of “Price Risk” in High Yield

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  Image Source: Julien Carnot We want you to learn about a unique risk innate to the high yield space like the back of your hand. We’ll explain the “information contained in prices” and talk about what you should be on the lookout for, the “avalanche effect.” Order the High Yield Dividend Newsletter here. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — I received a question from a dear member of ours, and I think it may be helpful that I share the response. The question had to do with why we may be ultra-cautious on high-yielding stocks that are facing considerable price declines. The risk described below makes the high yield space uniquely different than other equity strategies, in our view, … Read more

Tiffany Rallies 20%+ on 1Q’18 Report; Positive Read-Through for China, High-End Retail Margins

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Tiffany’s first-quarter 2018 results were from another planet! Strong increases in comparable store sales almost across the board, blowing by consensus estimates, and the company’s free cash flow outlook has only improved. The read-through is significantly positive for aspirational and luxury players, in our view, and Ralph Lauren’s gross-margin improvement during its quarterly release bodes well for many brands across most of the high-end apparel space. Foreign tourism and high-end consumer spending remain very strong on the basis of Tiffany’s quarterly results, and geopolitical concerns did not impact the breakneck pace of jewelry sales in China or the Korean Peninsula. It’s hard to imagine Tiffany having a better first quarter than it did. By Brian Nelson, CFA On May 23, … Read more