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2015 Marks Record Year for US Auto Industry

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The US auto industry set a sales record in 2015, as the largest automakers finished the year on a high note and pushed the full-year sales tally above the 17.4 million units sold mark set in 2000. 17.5 million light-vehicle sales were made in the US in 2015, which represents an increase of nearly 6% from 2014. December’s unit sales growth rate of 8.9% was one of the highest marks of any month during the year. December was a strong month for each of the major automakers in our coverage universe, as the lowest unit sales growth rate among the group was the 5.7% growth reported by General Motors (GM). Fiat Chrysler (FCAU) reported the highest growth in the month … Read more

GM and Ford Tune Up Operations for the Future of Automaking

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Image source: GM first-quarter earnings report The US auto behemoths continue to place a greater importance on efficient operations and the health of their bottom lines as the industry may be reaching a relative peak in terms of light vehicle production for this economic cycle and as the future of the auto landscape remains uncertain. By Kris Rosemann Key Takeaways Both GM and Ford are keeping a keen eye on the future of the evolving auto and personal transportation markets. We continue to like shares of GM relative to Ford, even as we say we like the direction in which Ford appears to be heading. GM’s shares are trading at an ultra-low earnings multiple, and it pays a very strong … Read more

General Motors Cuts Guidance on Higher Input Costs

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Simulated newsletter portfolio idea General Motors cut its full-year guidance due to higher than expected commodity cost increases and devaluation of key currencies in South America. Peers Ford and Fiat Chrysler also lowered 2018 guidance measures following a tough second quarter for the group. By Kris Rosemann The July 25 trading session was a tough one for simulated newsletter portfolio idea General Motors (GM) as it faced meaningful external pressures on its business and lowered guidance for 2018. Greater-than-expected impacts from rising commodity prices and currency devaluations in Brazil and Argentina were the primary drivers behind the guidance cut. However, some of those pressures may be easing as President Trump has reportedly agreed to work with the European Commission in … Read more

There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more

2,350-2,750 on the S&P? Could the Coronavirus Catalyze a Financial Crisis?

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Image: We think a rather modest sell-off in the market to the target range of 2,350-2,750 on the S&P 500 is rather reasonable in the wake of one of the biggest economic shocks since the Global Financial Crisis. The chart above shows how far markets have advanced since 2011, and an adjustment lower to the target range of 2,350-2,750 is rather modest in such a context and would only bring markets to late 2018 levels (note red box as the target range). The range reflects ~16x S&P 500 12-month forward earnings estimates, as of February 14, adjusted down 10% due to COVID-19. When companies like Visa talk about a couple percentage points taken off of growth rates, one knows that … Read more

US Congress Is Getting Ready to Pass a Massive ~$2.2 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus Bill

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Image Shown: US equities have started to recover some of their lost ground as the likelihood that the US Congress will pass a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus and emergency spending package, dubbed the CARES Act, has increased significantly over the past week as seen through the bounce in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). President Trump has clearly indicated that he intends to sign such a bill into law as soon as possible, with the US House of Representatives expected to take up the legislation this upcoming Friday morning on March 27. By Callum Turcan On March 25, the US Senate worked late into the night to secure a bipartisan compromise on a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus … Read more

Investing Versus Speculating: Ford, GM, Tesla

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Ford is making some changes at the top, but we still like General Motors. Tesla’s stock remains “uninvestable,” in our view. By Brian Nelson, CFA There are many definitions of investing and speculating that run the gamut from the views of investor Benjamin Graham to famed trader Jesse Livermore, but I have rather simple definitions of investing and speculating. Investing involves estimating a company’s intrinsic value and buying a stock when one thinks the price is far below intrinsic value and holding that security until price reaches intrinsic value, or through the high end of an informed fair value range, for example. This definition of investing and the art of intrinsic value estimation are core and vital to the Valuentum … Read more