SMH

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Semiconductor Equipment Industry

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Image Source: Applied Materials Structure of the Semiconductor Equipment Industry The semiconductor equipment industry is highly competitive and characterized by rapid technological change. Success hinges on the ability to commercialize new technology in a timely manner, continuously enhance products to improve efficiency of customer fab operations, and manage costs and inventory effectively. Performance of constituents is heavily influenced by manufacturing capacity and fab utilization rates, which together create volatile demand cycles. The potential for unexpected shifts in demand for the group’s products leaves us unexcited about the industry’s structural characteristics. We’ve optimized our technology coverage. Reports can be found here.

Semiconductors Broadcom and Cree Push Forward in an Uncertain Environment

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Image Source: Broadcom Inc – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Broadcom (AVGO) posted third quarter earnings for its fiscal 2019 on September 12. The semiconductor and enterprise software giant reported GAAP revenues of $5.5 billion (up 9% year-over-year) and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $5.16 (up 4% year-over-year). The initial reaction from Wall Street was pessimistic on September 13 but shares of AVGO climbed later in the trading session to recover some of those initial losses. Reiterating FY2019 Outlook, FY2020 Outlook Uncertain Right off the bat, one thing we think is very important is that Broadcom reaffirmed revenue guidance for FY2019 calling for $22.5 billion in net sales ($17.5 billion from semiconductor solutions and $5.0 billion from infrastructure software sales). However, … Read more

Intel Seeks 5G Network and IoT Growth to Offset Data Center Weakness

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Image Source: Picture taken by the author. By Callum Turcan A holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, Intel Corporation (INTC) reported earnings on July 25. The semiconductor boosted full-year revenue guidance by $0.5 billion to $69.5 billion while increasing non-GAAP EPS up to $4.40 (from $4.35 previously) for fiscal year 2019, keeping in mind Intel’s top- and bottom-lines are expected to weaken modestly on a year-over-year basis due to poor performance at its data center segment. Management reiterated that Intel still expects to generate $15.0 billion in free cash flow in fiscal year 2019 after spending $15.5 billion on capital expenditures. We like Intel’s free cash flows and income growth trajectory. Shares of INTC … Read more

Broadcom Plummets After Cutting Guidance

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Image Source: Florian Knodt Broadcom resets investor expectations, sending shares of the company and peers lower. Broadcom sports a juicy yield. By Callum Turcan Global semiconductor and infrastructure software giant Broadcom (AVGO) spooked the market during its fiscal second quarter report, released June 13, by sharply revising its revenue forecast for FY2019 lower (its FY2019 ends November 3, 2019). Shares of the company finished lower ~6% on the trading session June 14. As of this writing, Broadcom’s shares yield a juicy 4.0% Guidance Moves Lower Earlier this year, Broadcom set some lofty expectations. In its fiscal first quarter FY2019 (ended February 3, 2019) earnings release, released March 14, management issued guidance for the full fiscal year that called for $24.5 billion in … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

The Inflating Index Fund Bubble

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Image Source: Mac.Else von Berlin The investment industry is changing fast, and we’re happy to be an instrument for change. We’ve been clamoring to make index funds free for a long time, and we’re glad to see it finally happen. Let’s cover the implications of indiscriminate buying regardless of price with the observation that the number of publicly-traded companies is vastly shrinking. How long will the inflating index fund bubble last? By Brian Nelson, CFA Those that know Valuentum know that we stand up for the individual investor, and we work our tails off to make sure that we get the individual investor the very best of information and informed judgment. The CFA Institute via its Enterprising blog showcases a … Read more