SCHG

Bitcoin, U.S. Large Cap Growth, and Technology Continue to Dominate Returns

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Image source: Seeking Alpha, retrieved November 28 —– Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are free.  The Benefits of Premium Membership Sign Up Today. First 14 days FREE!  At Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m], we strive to stand out from the crowd. Most investment research publishers fall into a few camps, whether it be value, growth, income, momentum, chartist or some variant of the aforementioned. We think each in its own right holds merit, but the combination of these approaches is even more powerful. After all, stock price movements aren’t just driven by investors of the value or … Read more

Large Cap Growth Has More Room To Run

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“The stylistic area of large cap growth has been one of our favorite areas because of the strong net cash rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses that make up much of the space. The image is a rundown of the key Valuentum statistics for the top 15 holdings of the Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG). We believe where large cap growth goes, so does the broader market, considering the hefty weightings of some of these stocks in other broad-based indices. Based on the high end of our fair value estimate range for this group of bellwethers, the broader U.S. markets still have room to run, to the tune of 7%+, despite the many highs already reached … Read more

Valuentum Weekly

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Image: Bitcoin, technology and large cap growth have led the pack the past 5 years while pipeline MLPs, crude oil and energy stocks have fallen way behind. Large cap growth > small cap value. Bonds, non-US stocks continue to lag. The Valuentum Weekly is a brand-new weekly market commentary from Valuentum Securities, released each weekend in digital form. The Valuentum Weekly offers members a weekly synopsis of the markets and major events. It will be straight and to-the-point. Our goal is to deliver to you the latest information and insights. We welcome your feedback on how we can make the Valuentum Weekly as useful and as relevant for you as ever! Takeaways The markets offer investors an asymmetric risk opportunity, … Read more

Risk Management: Diversified Stock Selection or Modern Portfolio Theory?

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Image Shown: If one had concentrated in large cap growth the past 10 years (blue fill), or basically in undervalued stocks that had strong momentum, one would have outperformed the category of small cap value (IWN, second best in chart) and the 60/40 stock/bond portfolio (VBINX, orange) by an incredible 200+ percentage points. Image Source: Morningstar. By Brian Nelson, CFA I hosted a small estate sale late last week. Hours in the blistering sun brought a number of interested buyers and some small change, but that several people and families found use for my brother’s things has left a feeling in me that’s priceless. It’s been a while since one of our emails hit your inbox, but things have been slow … Read more

Markets Back on Track – Seeking Net-Cash-Rich, Free Cash Flow Generators with Pricing Power!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The past few trading sessions have tested the conviction of many equity holders, but we remain focused on the long run and believe the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, and the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio (available to registered members of that publication) are well positioned for long-term capital appreciation potential, dividend growth potential, and sustainable high yield dividend income, respectively. During the trading session May 13, the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio was led by some of our favorite net-cash-rich, free-cash-flow powerhouses. Moving convincingly higher, Apple (AAPL), Cisco (CSCO) and Microsoft (MSFT) have strong net cash positions on the balance sheet and generate impressive free cash flow well in excess of expected cash … Read more

ALERT: Bull Raids, Short Squeezes and Highly Unusual Market Activity

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We are putting short investors on high alert! By Brian Nelson, CFA In late 2018, Valuentum published Value Trap, a book that warned to all that would heed its warning that a collapse in the traditional quant value factor was coming and that excessive volatility in the markets caused by price-agnostic trading–or those that aren’t paying attention to fair value estimate calculations–would only build and build to eventually reach extreme and irrational levels. The book, while hugely successful winning award after award, was largely ignored by the media, despite our best efforts to get the word out. Now, the chickens are coming home to roost. Image Shown: The book Value Trap warned about the impending collapse of the value factor, … Read more

Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Holdings Are Surging!

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Image: The holdings in the Best Ideas Newsletter during the trading session November 4. We continue to pound the table on our best ideas. By Brian Nelson, CFA If you were like me, you stayed up as long as you could last night watching the U.S. election coverage before it became too difficult to keep your eyes open. When I went to sleep, it seemed as though Donald Trump would be re-elected. The only state that appeared to flip to the Democrats from the 2016 election was Arizona, meaning Trump would still retain greater than the 270 electoral votes required to gain re-election. Well, that was last night, and this is today. As more and more votes came in last … Read more

We’re Still Huge Fans of Microsoft

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Image Shown: A snapshot of Microsoft Corporation’s first quarter fiscal 2021 performance. We continue to be huge fans of the cash-rich tech giant. Image Source: Microsoft Corporation – First Quarter Fiscal 2021 IR PowerPoint Presentation By Callum Turcan On October 27, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) reported first quarter fiscal 2021 earnings (period ended September 30, 2020) that blew past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Its GAAP revenues were up 12% year-over-year, hitting $37.2 billion, while its GAAP diluted EPS jumped 32% higher on a year-over-year basis, hitting $1.82 last fiscal quarter. Leading the charge was Microsoft’s cloud-computing Azure segment, which reported 48% year-over-year sales growth, and its Dynamics 365 segment (includes offerings that meet enterprise resource planning and customer relationship … Read more

Microsoft Boosts Its Dividend and Announces a New Strategic Partnership

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Image Shown: Shares of Microsoft Corporation are up significantly year-to-date as of this writing, and we see room for further capital appreciation upside. Shares of Microsoft are included as a holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. By Callum Turcan On September 15, Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio holding Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) announced a ~10% sequential increase in its quarterly per share dividend, boosting its payout up to $0.56 per share or $2.24 per share on an annualized basis. As of this writing, shares of MSFT now yield ~1.1% on a forward-looking basis. Furthermore, Microsoft noted its 2020 Annual Shareholders Meeting would be held on December 2 and would be conducted through … Read more

This Stock Market Doesn’t Scare Me

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Dear members:   It’s amateur hour at Seeking Alpha, it seems. Most have been calling for a market crash the past week or so, but it’s hard for me to take many writers over there too seriously. Neither should you. We had the crash in February/March of this year, and the Fed/Treasury will do what it takes to prevent another one, in my view. Let me say it for the first time: This stock market doesn’t scare me.  The reality is that we finally bumped up into fair value range. It wasn’t a day or two after I sent out a market alert to you to let you know that markets are now fairly valued when we started to see some … Read more