RSG

Republic Services Continues to Price in Excess of Cost Inflation

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On February 17, Republic Services (RSG) reported fourth quarter results that were mixed with non-GAAP earnings per share coming in better than expected but revenue coming in a bit light relative to forecasts. Total revenue growth in the quarter was 2.2% thanks to 2.9% organic growth from its recycling and waste business, 1.3% growth from acquisitions, and a 2% organic decline from its environmental solutions business. Core price on total revenue increased by 5.8%. Volume decreased total revenue by 1%. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.3 billion or 31.3% of revenue, an increase of 30 basis points from the same period a year ago. Quarterly net income was $545 million on a margin of 13.2%, … Read more

Republic Services’ Pricing Strength Drives Results

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Trash taker Republic Services (RSG) recently reported third quarter results that were mixed. Revenue growth of 3.3% missed the consensus analyst estimate, while non-GAAP earnings per share exceeded the consensus mark by $0.12. Total revenue growth was driven by 1.7 percentage point organic growth and 1.6 percentage point growth from acquisitions. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.90 versus $1.81 per share in the prior-year period, while its adjusted EBITDA came in at $1.38 billion on a margin of 32.8%, up 80 basis points over the prior year quarter. Management had the following to say about the results: We delivered strong third-quarter results as we continue to execute our strategy for sustainable, profitable growth. Despite … Read more

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Republic Services Remains a Cash Cow

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA Garbage hauler Republic Services (RSG) recently reported second quarter results that were mixed. The firm beat non-GAAP earnings per share estimates but missed when it came to revenue growth. Total revenue growth of 4.6% included 3.1% organic growth and the balance coming from growth from acquisitions. Net income was $550 million in the quarter, reflecting a margin of 13%, while adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.77, an increase of 9.9% over the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.36 billion, as its adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 100 basis points, to 32.1%. Management had the following to say about the results: We are pleased with our second quarter results which demonstrate the resilience … Read more

Waste Management Grows Adjusted Operating EBITDA Double Digits in Second Quarter

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On July 28, Waste Management (WM) reported second quarter results that came in better than expected on both the top and bottom lines. Adjusted revenue increased 19% year-over-year, to $6.43 billion, while adjusted income from operations came in at $1.215 billion, up from $1.075 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Adjusted operating EBITDA increased 18.9%, to $1.923 billion. Adjusted net income came in at $777 million, up from $732 million in the second quarter of 2024, while adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.92 was 6% higher than the quarterly mark last year. Management had the following to say about the results: As we described at our recent Investor Day, WM … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

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Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

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By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Republic Services Continues to Price Ahead of Inflation

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Image: Republic Services’ shares have done quite well the past few years. By Brian Nelson, CFA On April 24, trash taker Republic Services (RSG) reported mixed first quarter results with non-GAAP earnings per share outpacing the consensus forecast, but revenue coming in a bit light compared to what the Street was looking for. Total revenue growth was 3.8%, including 2.9 percentage points of organic growth and the balance coming from acquisitions. Revenue growth from average yield increased 4.5%, above the rate of cost inflation, while volume decreased revenue by 1.2%. Management had the following to say about the quarter: We are off to a solid start to the year, and our business continues to perform well even with increased volatility … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more

Republic Services Pricing Strength Continues to be Evident

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Image Source: Republic Services By Brian Nelson, CFA Republic Services (RSG) reported mixed third quarter results October 29, with revenue coming in a bit light relative to the consensus forecast, while non-GAAP earnings per share outpaced what the Street had been looking for. The trash taker posted 6.5% revenue growth with 4.2 percentage points coming from organic means, while 2.3 percentage points came from acquisitions. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $1.81, beating consensus expectations by $0.20. Management had the following to say about the quarter: Our strong performance during the third quarter is a direct result of executing our strategic priorities. By pricing ahead of cost inflation and effective cost management, we delivered double-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA and … Read more