PMT

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Mortgage REITs Still Dangerous Income Vehicles

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Image: Since late May 2013, mortgage REITs, as measured by the iShares Trust Mortgage Real Estate ETF (REM), middle, have fallen more than 20%, while the master limited partnership space, as measured by the Alerian MLP ETF (AMLP), has fallen by nearly 45%, bottom. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SPY) has rallied more than 75%, all on a price-basis, top.  By Brian Nelson, CFA There’s nothing “safe” about mortgage REITs (REM). The industry caught a lot of attention with the high-profile performance of some of the larger players, including AGNC Investment (AGNC) and Annaly Capital (NLY), in years past, but the hype has fizzled out. Not only has the mortgage REIT industry vastly underperformed a broad market benchmark such as the … Read more

Risks Remain Prevalent For Mortgage REITs

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Image shown: Mortgage REITs have held up better than master limited partnerships (MLPs) since mid-2015, but they haven’t exactly done well. For income investors, they may be the lesser of the two pain areas, but we’re still not really excited about them. By Kris Rosemann “The fundamental point remains sound: these are highly-levered, risky entities that depend on a number of factors beyond their control to generate profits.” – Kris Rosemann The Yield Curve Curve Is A Key Driver The mortgage REIT (mREIT) industry is not easy for many to understand, and even a great understanding of the space may not lead to investment success either. Many have stated that this area is not one in which individual investors should … Read more

Our Data Sheet on the Residential / Mortgage REITs

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Image Source: Jeff Djevdet Structure of the Residential/Mortgage REIT Industry The residential REIT industry consists of REITs that own and manage housing, multi-family and apartment communities as well as mortgage REITs that invest in agency securities in which the principal and interest payments may be guaranteed by the government. The industry has been materially impacted by recent changes in the lending landscape, defaults, credit losses, and significant liquidity concerns during the recent global financial crisis. The firms in this industry generally are not subject to federal taxes on their taxable income to the extent that they annually distribute all of their taxable income to stockholders. As a result of this business structure, many firms have elevated distribution yields, but almost … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

ETF Analysis: Real Estate

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Please select the image below to download the report.

Dividend Growth Still A Resilient Theme

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Rising interest rates may pose headwinds to yield-sensitive dividend payers, but we think dividend growth investing remains a resilient theme. We’re big fans of the concept of yield-on-cost, but close attention to valuations, free cash flow generation and balance-sheet health will remain critical. By Brian Nelson CFA We’re big fans of dividend growth investing. Identifying strong businesses that generate considerable free cash flow and have healthy balance sheets to cushion against their growing dividends is one of the key themes of the Dividend Growth Newsletter and its simulated portfolio. The concept of yield-on-cost is a very important one, too, and something that any dividend growth investor should be aware of. Scooping up a dividend-paying company that has a juicy dividend … Read more

Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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To read the study, please click on the image to download the pdf document (pdf).