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Disney Reports Earnings and Provides an Update on the Novel Coronavirus Epidemic

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Image Shown: Walt Disney Company recently reported earnings and provided an update as to what investors should expect going forward given the ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic in China. By Callum Turcan On February 4, Walt Disney Company (DIS) reported earnings for the first quarter of its fiscal 2020 (period ended December 28, 2019). While Disney beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates, shares sold off modestly the next trading day over fears concerning the ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic (abbreviated as ‘2019-nCoV’) in China, and how that would impact its financial performance going forward.   On January 13, 2020, we added shares of DIS to our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (link covering our portfolio changes here) with a modest weighting given … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Health Care Sector Remains Hot

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Image Shown: The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF, a holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios, has been on an upward tear over the past several years. Strong macro tailwinds combined with the ability for industries within the health care sector to generate meaningful shareholder value have been key to supporting strong capital appreciation of equities operating in the area of late. By Callum Turcan The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) is a top holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. We like the exposure and diversification to health care equities that XLV provides. XLV yields ~1.5% as of this writing. State Street Corp (STT) acts as … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Pharmaceuticals – Big Industry

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Image Source: A 4 Structure of the Pharmaceuticals – Big Industry The big pharma industry is primarily composed of makers of branded drugs. Intellectual property protection is vital to the successful commercialization of medicines and offers makers of branded drugs a unique competitive advantage via patents, which can extend for decades. When branded drugs lose market exclusivity, however, makers of generic pharmaceuticals can generate intense price competition, causing drastic revenue losses on unprotected therapies. Long-term success for branded pharma companies depends on a strong and diverse drug pipeline, which can be augmented by M&A activity. We generally like the group and expect continued industry consolidation. We’ve optimized our health care coverage, the reports of which can be found here.

Biotech and Pharma Roundup

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Image Source: e-Magine Art Some big news in the world of biotech and pharmaceuticals has come out this week, starting Monday October 21, that we want to get out in front of our members. In alphabetical order by ticker symbol: BIIB, BMY, MRK, NVS. By Callum Turcan Biogen Inc (BIIB) reported third quarter 2019 earnings on Tuesday October 22 that easily beat both top and bottom line estimates. That was partially due to strong sales at its SPINRAZA offering, which is used to treat spinal muscular atrophy. Shares of BIIB rocketed higher during the trading session as investors priced in the upside that Biogen’s Aducanumab treatment could generate, with the company announcing that it was going to ask the US … Read more

Merck Shows Impressive Margin Expansion

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Image Source: Merck & Co Inc – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Pharmaceutical giant Merck (MRK) has performed well during the past few fiscal years by reducing operating costs while utilizing strong growth at some of its oncology drug offerings to drive sales higher. Shares of Merck yield 2.7% as of this writing and are trading at the upper half of our fair value estimate range after an impressive run up in Merck’s stock price began in April 2018. Management recently raised Merck’s full-year sales and non-GAAP EPS guidance for 2019, which we will cover in a moment. Enhancing Profitability Levels From 2016 to 2018, Merck cut its GAAP operating expenses from $35.1 billion to $33.6 billion (down over 4%) … Read more

Elanco Buys Bayer’s Animal Health Unit, Gaining Scale and Greater Exposure to the Humanization of Pets” Trend”

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Image Shown: Shares of Elanco Animal Health Inc (ELAN) sold off after the company announced on August 20 it was acquiring Bayer AG’s (BAYRY) animal health unit through a cash and deal stock deal worth $7.6 billion at the time the deal was announced. By Callum Turcan On August 20, Elanco Animal Health Inc (ELAN) agreed to acquire Bayer AG’s (BAYRY) animal health unit for $7.6 billion (at the time the deal was announced) through a cash and stock deal. That includes $5.3 billion in cash and $2.3 billion in stock, keeping in mind shares of ELAN initially shifted lower after the news. Bayer plans to exit its stake in Elanco over time as management seeks to rebuild the company’s … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

Eli Lilly Bursts Higher, Fair Value Estimate Under Review

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We continue to be impressed with the recent developments at Eli Lilly as the company is poised to radically ramp sales growth potential in the event the commercialization of new products and its late-stage pipeline come to fruition. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways The share price of Eli Lilly has performed wonderfully of late as the company reported a beat-and-raise quarter thanks in large part to sales growth in newer products. Lilly scored a key patent win for its oncology mainstay Alimta, thus ensuring a steady revenue stream. With a patent win protecting Alimta, Lilly is in good shape to weather the revenue hit from a generic version of Cialis entering the market. We suspect Lilly will be able … Read more