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Fed Cuts 50 Basis Points, Expect More Market Volatility Ahead

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Image Source: FOMC  The emergency 50-basis point Fed rate cut announced March 3 was largely expected by the marketplace in light of growing economic concerns due to COVID-19, but it does nothing to immunize against COVID-19 and little to stabilize the situation. We continue to monitor the situation closely, and we expect ongoing volatility in the coming days and months as the situation with COVID-19 remains fluid. Having moved to defensive positions in both the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio in January and having capitalized on the “crash protection” put, we are preparing for our next move. For now, we’re watching and waiting, and we encourage readers that have not yet picked up their copy of … Read more

COVID-19 Crisis Intensifies

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Image Source: CDC. Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).  Our dearest members: — The world is being challenged today by what some including Bill Gates believe might be a “once-in-a-century pathogen.” We do not know the eventual outcome, whether the impact of this illness ends up being as profound as the Spanish Influenza of 1918-1919 (which inflicted a death toll in the tens of millions), but we maintain our view the markets have yet to come to grips with the impact of COVID-19 on economic activity and potential ramifications on the global economy and the banking system.  — What is currently a “biological” crisis may turn into an all-out global financial crisis, one that could end up worse than the 2008/2009 mortgage meltdown. Instead … Read more

Has the Stock Market Crash Begun?

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Image: CDC. Transmission electron microscopic image of an isolate from the first U.S. case of COVID-19, formerly known as 2019-nCoV. The spherical viral particles, colorized blue, contain cross-section through the viral genome, seen as black dots. Dear members: This article is our fourth update on COVID-19. The previous three installments can be found here (Feb 22), here (Feb 7) and here (Jan 31). We trust you and yours are well during this global crisis. It’s hard to turn on the television these days without hearing about COVID-19, a novel coronavirus and respiratory illness that continues to spread from person to person around the world. COVID-19 is deadly, and particularly deadly among those 60 years of age and older and those … Read more

ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG

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Image source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG — Changes to newsletter portfolios — We’re adding out-of-the-money put options to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Booking Holdings from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — We’re making some moves in the newsletter portfolios today.  — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is currently indicated down 900+ points in pre-market trading during the session Monday, February 24. We laid out a thesis where the US markets could experience a “crash,” and we encourage you to read that take here, “Is a … Read more

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Cisco Continues to Showcase Its Free Cash Flow Strength

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Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – Second Quarter Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On February 12, Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) reported second-quarter earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended January 25, 2020) that beat consensus estimates on both the top- and bottom-line. However, shares of CSCO still fell initially on the news, possibly due to the company’s forward guidance for the third quarter falling short of expectations. Cisco is currently undergoing a major transition from a company that primarily sells hardware to one that also offers material subscription-based services and software, in order to offset the structural declines facing the enterprise data application management space (which can be summed up as many/most enterprises around the world switching their … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Communications Equipment Space

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Image Source: Seth Stoll Structure of the Networking Equipment Industry Firms in the networking equipment industry provide products for transporting data, voice, and video within businesses and around the world. Participants must adapt to address virtualization/cloud-driven needs in the enterprise data center market; the convergence of video, collaboration, and networked mobility technologies; and the move toward programmable, virtual networks. The industry is characterized by low barriers to entry, rapid technological change and significant pricing competition. Gross margins can be volatile and should be watched closely. We don’t like the structure of the group. We’ve optimized our tehnology coverage. To access the reports, please select here.

Cisco Remains a Free Cash Flow Cow Supported By a Solid Net Cash Position

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Image Shown: A breakdown of Cisco Systems Inc’s revenue as of the end of its fiscal 2019. Image Source: Cisco Systems – Fiscal 2019 Annual Report By Callum Turcan On November 13, Cisco Systems (CSCO) reported first quarter earnings for its fiscal 2020 (period ended October 26, 2019) that saw shares of CSCO sell off on November 14. That was likely due to the weak guidance management put out for the second quarter of the firm’s fiscal 2020, but we continue to like Cisco’s quality free cash flows and net cash balance. Cisco’s GAAP revenues came in at $13.2 billion last quarter, up 1% year-over-year, and that growth rate rises to 2% when excluding sales related to the divestiture of … Read more

Brace for More Volatility

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Image shown: The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) since August of last year. The markets have broken through key support levels, and now support has become resistance. Volatility remains heightened since the low-vol ETN blew up in February. This article is the introduction to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter and High Yield Dividend Newsletter, both of which will be released today due to the holiday January 1. By Brian Nelson, CFA Markets are facing big pressure on the trading session January 3. There’s more to the story than rising interest rates. There’s more to the story than the US-China trade war. There’s more to the story than concerns about the political environment. Price-agnostic (indexing and quant) trading, as I outline in … Read more