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Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Altria Back Above $70, Dollar General Pleases, Verint Sells Off

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Image shown: Dollar General’s stock has performed very well since being added to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We were very happy to see newsletter portfolio idea Altria surge back above $70 per share in recent days. Dollar General continues its strength as the economy churns out more of its demographic, and we continue to believe the dollar store arena may be one of the few spaces of retail that is truly insulated from the Amazon effect. Verint Systems, on the other hand, has faced selling pressure, which we think is flat-out unwarranted. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA In case you missed the latest video from President of Investment Research Brian Nelson here, we’ve been following very closely developments … Read more

Strategy Versus Tactics in the Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio

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Image Source: fauxto_digit We made a few tactical tweaks to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio during 2017. Let’s walk through them, and how we’re out to win the war, not win every battle. < Note: The introduction is the same as that of the tactical analysis of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. If you have already read through the introduction, please proceed to the section, Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio below. > By Brian Nelson, CFA I’m not going to reference The Art of War written by Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu some time in the 5th century, nor am I going to use any quotes from the military treatise (I think it’s too well-traveled of a topic), but I do … Read more

Strategy Versus Tactics in the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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Image Source: Anna & Michal We made a few tactical tweaks to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio during 2017. Let’s walk through them, and how we’re out to win the war, not win every battle. By Brian Nelson, CFA I’m not going to reference The Art of War written by Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu some time in the 5th century, nor am I going to use any quotes from the military treatise (I think it’s too well-traveled of a topic), but I do believe the approach to portfolio management is much like that of a general on a path to win the war. Now, don’t get me confused: I’m not saying that portfolio management is actually like being in … Read more

How Have Our Best “Dividend Growth Ideas” Performed During 2017?

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Read about the ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio >> We wrote recently about how well the top-weighted ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio have performed during 2017, but what about the top-weighted ideas in the other newsletter portfolio, the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio? How have they performed during 2017? Please tell us you know how well the top-weighted ideas have been performing. Key Takeaways: 1) “Excluding dividends, the SPDR S&P 500 Dividend ETF has advanced less than 9% this year. Meanwhile, excluding dividends, the two top-weighted ideas in the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio, Johnson & Johnson and Intel, are up ~20% and ~24%, respectively, more than double that of the SPDR S&P 500 Dividend ETF.”  2) “We’re viewing … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending August 25

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending August 25. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Altria (MO): now $0.66 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.61. Canadian Imperial Bank (CM): now CAD 1.30 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 1.27. Capital City Bank (CCBG): now $0.07 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT): now $0.092836 per share monthly dividend, was $0.077397. Expedia (EXPE): now $0.30 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.28. First Capital (FCAP): now $0.22 per share … Read more

Apple, Hanesbrands Power Higher

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Image shown: Performance of the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) since the beginning of 2017. There aren’t two other companies within the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio that may be more controversial positions than Apple and Hanesbrands — one is on the cutting edge of technology and the other makes T-shirts and underwear, a very interesting dichotomy. By Brian Nelson, CFA The stock market continues to roar ahead, and the latest rally is starting to set some new records. According to Charlie Bilello at Pension Partners, the S&P 500 (SPY) currently has the fourth-longest streak in history without a 5% drawdown, at 275 consecutive trading days. That’s incredibly low volatility. The S&P 500 now also has had 9 consecutive months where it … Read more

Newsletter Notifications — July 31

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Boeing (BA) has been an incredible performer since it was added to the portfolio of the Dividend Growth Newsletter just a few short months ago. We are making a number of changes to the newsletter portfolios today. Important upcoming dates   Release date of August Dividend Growth Newsletter — the evening of August 1.   Release date of August Nelson Exclusive publication — the evening of August 5.   Release date of August Best Ideas Newsletter — the evening of August 15.    Newsletter portfolio changes   Boeing (BA): We added the top-performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in 2017 to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio in January of this year at $168.44 per share. Shares have simply surged, and we’re not … Read more

Altria Keeps Smoking; Is Smokeless the Future for Big Tobacco?

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Tobacco giant Altria reported another solid quarter thanks in large part to its pricing power, but big tobacco may be altering its strategy as it finds an unexpected ally. By Kris Roseman Newsletter portfolio holding and tobacco giant Altria (MO) reported a solid second quarter of 2017 with top- and bottom-line growth before the open July 27. Its quarterly strength was largely driven by pricing power, a line we’ve written many times over in recent years with respect to the tobacco industry. Cigarette volumes continue to decline–the decline was more pronounced in the second quarter of 2017 due to a large excise tax increase in California–as industry-wide volumes fell 4.5%, but Altria and its peers continue to grow the overall … Read more

Nelson: Reminding You of Some of Our Favorites

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Sometimes we talk way too much about the incremental, the periphery, and the tactical tweaks, and not enough about our favorite ideas included in the newsletter portfolios. Let’s cover four of our favorites. By Brian Nelson, CFA Apple The market has seemingly always had Apple’s (AAPL) shares mispriced. Our fair value estimate of the iPhone giant has been above its trading price for years, and we’ve included the company in both newsletter portfolios since inception. It’s been a win-win for Valuentum investors and dividend growth investors alike. A look at Apple’s rating history (newest to oldest) showcases just how much conviction we’ve had in the idea, and shares have now almost converged to our present $165 per share fair value … Read more