LVMHF

Has the Stock Market Crash Begun?

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Image: CDC. Transmission electron microscopic image of an isolate from the first U.S. case of COVID-19, formerly known as 2019-nCoV. The spherical viral particles, colorized blue, contain cross-section through the viral genome, seen as black dots. Dear members: This article is our fourth update on COVID-19. The previous three installments can be found here (Feb 22), here (Feb 7) and here (Jan 31). We trust you and yours are well during this global crisis. It’s hard to turn on the television these days without hearing about COVID-19, a novel coronavirus and respiratory illness that continues to spread from person to person around the world. COVID-19 is deadly, and particularly deadly among those 60 years of age and older and those … Read more

ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG

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Image source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG — Changes to newsletter portfolios — We’re adding out-of-the-money put options to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Booking Holdings from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — We’re making some moves in the newsletter portfolios today.  — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is currently indicated down 900+ points in pre-market trading during the session Monday, February 24. We laid out a thesis where the US markets could experience a “crash,” and we encourage you to read that take here, “Is a … Read more

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Cole Haan Files to Go Public

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By Callum Turcan Maker of footwear, handbags, sunglasses, and various other accessories Cole Haan Inc (TBD:CLHN) has filed to go public. One thing that makes this planned IPO particularly interesting is that Cole Haan was free cash flow positive in both fiscal 2018 (period ended June 2, 2018) to fiscal 2019 (period ended June 1,2019), generating $35 million and $38 million in free cash flows, respectively. The firm plans on trading on the NASDAQ Global Select Market, run by Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ), under the ticker CLHN. Additionally, please note that after the planned IPO, funds advised by British private-equity firms Apax Partners LLP and Apax Partners are expected to continue to own a “majority… of the shares eligible to vote … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Luxury Goods – Ultra & Aspirational Industry

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Image Source: Jill Clardy Structure of the Luxury Goods Industry Luxury goods firms differentiate themselves based on brand name, perception, and quality in order to generate excess returns on invested capital through the economic cycle. Building a large, successful luxury brand is difficult, leaving those that possess them with intangible competitive advantages that are not easily overcome by new entrants. Growth in emerging middle classes and China will be the key demand drivers going forward, though the strongest brands will also grow successfully via market share gains. Though changes in consumer preferences should be watched closely, we like the structure of the group. We’ve optimized our consumer discretionary coverage. For their reports, please click here.

Facebook’s Huge New Opportunity in Instagram Checkout, Reiterating Fair Value Estimate ~$230

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Image Source: Facebook’s Instagram We continue to like Facebook, and we’re huge fans of Instagram Checkout. Many may not know it yet, but Instagram Checkout may mark the beginning of retailers’ websites becoming obsolete. The sell-off last summer in Facebook was a big gift for those that stuck with our thesis. Brian Nelson, CFA I think one of the things that financial advisors and financial planners do extremely well is explain the concept of patience to their clients. Can you imagine if a client cashed out upon every 15%-20% decline? That’d be a recipe for continuous disaster. On the path to the market setting broader market highs in 2018, there have been many disappointments along the way. There have been … Read more

Here It Comes… Apple’s Shot Across the Bow

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Image Source: Tinh tế Photo Apple surprised the market by issuing first-quarter 2019 guidance below expectations. The company pointed to weakness in China as the main culprit. We continue to expect heightened levels of volatility, and investors in key American icons that might be impacted by consumer backlash in China should be on high alert. No changes to the simulated newsletter portfolios as a result of the news. By Brian Nelson, CFA We had yet another volatile day to kick off the new year. The Dow opened with a near 400-point slide and then jumped considerably mid-session only to barely finish higher. You have to read Value Trap. You’ll know exactly what I’m talking about. In case you missed the announcement, … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com