LMT

Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

Lockheed Martin Raises 2025 Guidance

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA On October 21, Lockheed Martin (LMT) reported better than expected third quarter results, with revenue and GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus forecasts. Third quarter sales of $18.6 billion increased compared to $17.1 billion in the third quarter of 2024. Net earnings in the third quarter were $1.6 billion, or $6.95 per share, compared to $1.6 billion, or $6.80 per share in the third quarter of last year. Cash flow from operations was $3.7 billion in the third quarter, compared to $2.4 billion in the third quarter of 2024. Free cash flow was $3.3 billion in the third quarter, compared to $2.1 billion in the third quarter of last year. Management had … Read more

Lockheed Martin Announces Program Losses

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Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA Lockheed Martin (LMT) recently reported disappointing second quarter results that showed a miss on the top line versus consensus and pre-tax losses on programs of $1.6 billion and other charges of $169 million, combining to impact earnings per share by $5.83. Second quarter sales came in at $18.2 billion, up from $18.1 billion in the second quarter of 2024. Net earnings of $1.46 per share compared to $6.85 per share in last year’s quarter. Cash from operations was $201 million compared to $1.9 billion in last year’s quarter, while free cash flow dipped into negative territory, compared to $1.5 billion in the second quarter of 2024. Management had the following to say about … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

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Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Magnificent 7 Earnings Reports Not Bad Thus Far

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By Brian Nelson, CFA   Shortly after Trump’s Liberation Day, where the President unveiled lofty tariffs on numerous countries, we released our wait-and-see outlook for the equity markets, which thus far has proven to be the right move, with the markets largely recovering from the depths reached in April. The S&P 500 (SPY), for example, is down just 3.3% year-to-date, excluding dividends.   A lot has happened since Liberation Day, including easing of tariffs to a 10% baseline for most, if not all, countries, with the key exception of China, where tariffs remain extremely elevated and prohibitive. Many countries are now reportedly negotiating trade agreements with the White House, and we expect China to be added to that list soon, even if … Read more

Lockheed Martin Reaffirms 2025 Outlook

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Image: Lockheed Martin’s shares have been on a wild ride the past few years. By Brian Nelson, CFA On April 22, Lockheed Martin (LMT) reported better than expected first quarter results with revenue and GAAP earnings per share exceeding the consensus forecast. Sales increased 4%, while net earnings came in at $1.7 billion, or $7.28 per share, compared to $1.5 billion, or $6.39 per share, in the same period a year ago. Cash flow from operations came in at $1.4 billion compared to $1.6 billion in last year’s quarter, while free cash flow dipped to $955 million from $1.3 billion in the year-ago period. Management was optimistic in the press release: The momentum we created last year continued into the … Read more

Trump Tariffs Higher than Expected; What We’re Doing

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By Brian Nelson, CFA The Trump tariff increases came in larger than what we were expecting, and it remains to be seen how they will flow through the global economy, as we monitor potential retaliatory tariffs from other countries. As it relates to the equity markets, we’re taking a wait and see approach at the moment as we monitor new policy changes related to trade, immigration, fiscal (tax), and regulations. In short, we’re not overreacting to the sell off as we won’t have a great handle on the tariff impact to companies for a few quarters when they report results post-tariff increases. That said, we’re expecting continued market volatility, with meaningful risk to the downside, before trade uncertainty alleviates in … Read more

Lockheed Martin’s Earnings Impacted by Classified Program Losses

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Image Source: Lockheed Martin By Brian Nelson, CFA On January 28, Lockheed Martin (LMT) reported lower than expected fourth quarter results with revenue and GAAP earnings per share missing the consensus forecasts. Quarterly revenue dropped 1.3%, while net earnings for the fourth quarter came in at $527 million, or $2.22 per share, a level that includes $1.7 billion of charges for classified programs in its Aeronautics and Missiles and Fire Control (MFC) business segments. Net earnings were $1.9 billion, or $7.58 per share in the fourth quarter of 2023. Cash flow from operations was $1.0 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, after a pension contribution of $990 million, compared to $2.4 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023. Free … Read more

Boeing Burning Through Cash

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  Image: Boeing’s shares have seen better days. By Brian Nelson, CFA Aerospace giant Boeing (BA) reported disappointing third quarter results on October 23, with revenue and non-GAAP earnings per share coming in lower than expected. Revenue fell 1% in the quarter, while the firm posted large operating and net losses, which reflected impacts from the IAM strike and previously announced charges on its commercial (777X, 767) and defense (T-7A, KC-46A Tanker, Commercial Crew, and MQ-25) programs. GAAP loss per share was $9.97, while core non-GAAP loss per share came in at $10.44. These numbers aren’t reflective of Boeing’s long-term earnings power, but they showcase the challenges the firm continues to face. Management acknowledged that the path ahead will be … Read more

Lockheed Martin Raises 2024 Guidance, F-35 Program in Focus

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Image: Lockheed Martin’s shares have done well of late. By Brian Nelson, CFA On October 22, Lockheed Martin (LMT) reported mixed third quarter results with revenue coming up short relative to the consensus forecast but non-GAAP earnings per share beating what the market had been expecting. Net sales advanced 1% on a year-over-year basis, while net earnings of $1.6 billion fell from $1.7 billion in the third quarter of last year. Net earnings per share came in at $6.80, up from $6.73 per share in the year-ago period. Cash flow from operations was $2.4 billion, down from $2.9 billion in the same period last year, while free cash flow was $2.1 billion in the third quarter of 2024, down from … Read more