ISCA

ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG

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Image source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG — Changes to newsletter portfolios — We’re adding out-of-the-money put options to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Booking Holdings from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — We’re making some moves in the newsletter portfolios today.  — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is currently indicated down 900+ points in pre-market trading during the session Monday, February 24. We laid out a thesis where the US markets could experience a “crash,” and we encourage you to read that take here, “Is a … Read more

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Disney Reports Earnings and Provides an Update on the Novel Coronavirus Epidemic

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Image Shown: Walt Disney Company recently reported earnings and provided an update as to what investors should expect going forward given the ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic in China. By Callum Turcan On February 4, Walt Disney Company (DIS) reported earnings for the first quarter of its fiscal 2020 (period ended December 28, 2019). While Disney beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates, shares sold off modestly the next trading day over fears concerning the ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic (abbreviated as ‘2019-nCoV’) in China, and how that would impact its financial performance going forward.   On January 13, 2020, we added shares of DIS to our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (link covering our portfolio changes here) with a modest weighting given … Read more

AT&T Continues to Follow Through With Its Mission

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Image Source: AT&T Inc – Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan One of our holdings in the High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio, AT&T Inc (T), reported full-year and fourth quarter results for 2019 on January 29. Shares of T sold off modestly on the mixed report (adjusted non-GAAP EPS beat consensus estimates but revenues fell short of expectations), and now shares of T yield ~5.6% as of this writing. We continue to like what we see in AT&T as management is delivering on major value creating initiatives: deleveraging, margin expansion, and ultimately free cash flow growth. More information on the High Yield Dividend Newsletter >> Free Cash Flow Giant AT&T generated almost $48.7 billion in net operating … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Disney Joins the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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Image Shown: Shares of The Walt Disney Company have performed well over the past year, and we see room for additional upside. By Callum Turcan Media and entertainment giant The Walt Disney Company (DIS) was just added to our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio (article link here announcing recent portfolio changes). Though the firm does not register the typically high Valuentum Buying Index rating that we would prefer with new additions (sometimes we have to relax criteria to achieve newsletter portfolio goals), we like Disney’s business model and its future free cash flows are underpinned by: a top quality intellectual property (‘IP’) portfolio that’s practically impossible to replace, the immense profitability of its theme parks (which benefit from its strong and ever-growing IP … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Media Entertainment Industry

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Structure of the Media (entertainment) Industry The media (entertainment) industry spans firms with diversified worldwide entertainment operations to those that specialize primarily in motion picture production and technologies. Firms with media network businesses compete for viewers with other networks, while companies with studio entertainment businesses compete with all forms of entertainment. A significant number of companies produce theatrical/television films, and success depends on unpredictable public preferences. The strongest participants will consistently create filmed entertainment and/or cable programming that consumers want. We’re neutral on the group. For our coverage of firms in the Media (entertainment) industry, please click here.

Apple Surges Higher!

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Image Shown: Shares of Apple continue to surge higher and were supported by positive US-China trade talk news on Friday October 11. By Callum Turcan One of our favorite companies, Apple (AAPL), has been off to the races with shares pushing up into the mid-$230s as of this writing. Apple is a top holding in both our Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolios. We value Apple at up to $266 per share at the top end of our fair value estimate range, and shares of AAPL yield 1.3% as of this writing. Please note Apple’s fiscal year ends in late September. Let’s start out by covering an area Apple has had some trouble with over the past few … Read more

Apple Makes Its Big Push Into Services

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Image Shown: Apple announced that Apple TV+ would launch November 1, 2019, during its big update event on September 10. This marks the beginning of Apple’s transition from a hardware and software company to a hardware, software, and services giant. By Callum Turcan On September 10, Apple Inc (AAPL) held its big hardware and software event but the real star of the show was services. Namely, Apple TV+ which will launch this upcoming November 1 at the relatively low price of just $4.99 per month. That’s below the starting price point offered by Apple’s (future) video streaming competitors including Netflix (NFLX), Walt Disney Company (DIS), and others. Apple is coming out swinging with star studded launches of its own exclusive … Read more

Netflix Misses Net Subscriber Growth Estimates, Shares Plummet

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By Callum Turcan Shares of Netflix Inc (NFLX) were crushed during the trading session July 18 after the video streaming company posted second-quarter 2019 earnings. The big miss in its net subscriber additions was the main reason why. The company added 2.7 million net paying subscribers to its ranks during the quarter (way below guidance calling for 5.0 million), bringing its total paid subscriber count to 151.6 million worldwide at the end of the second quarter. That’s along with 6.1 million free trial accounts, which could be viewed as a growth pipeline considering some, but not all, of those subscribers will likely become paying members. Most see the big miss on net subscriber additions as the key culprit behind Netflix’s … Read more