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ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG

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Image source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG — Changes to newsletter portfolios — We’re adding out-of-the-money put options to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Booking Holdings from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — We’re making some moves in the newsletter portfolios today.  — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is currently indicated down 900+ points in pre-market trading during the session Monday, February 24. We laid out a thesis where the US markets could experience a “crash,” and we encourage you to read that take here, “Is a … Read more

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Agricultural Equipment Industry

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Structure of the Agricultural Machinery Industry The agricultural machinery industry is composed of firms that make farm and construction equipment. Demand for agricultural equipment is levered to farm incomes and commodity prices, while purchases of construction equipment are dependent on global economic health. Population growth and the increasing need for food/energy are the major long-term drivers for new orders across the industry. Still, firms are competitive, capital intensive, and possess significant operating leverage. A strong/dependable brand and an expansive distribution network are keys to success. We’re neutral on the group. We’ve optimized our industrials coverage. Our reports can be found here.

Improving Our Coverage

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Valuentum continues to scour the stock market for new ideas. We’ll be following the set of companies in this list via commentary on our website and a data sheet updated periodically. By Valuentum Analysts The list of companies in the download below were previously covered by our team via 16-page report and dividend report fashion. Going forward, we are now covering these companies with commentary on the website and via a data sheet updated periodically. This will be a much better use of members’ time, especially as members scour our Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, stock methodology, dividend methodology, and the hundreds of stock valuation reports and dividend reports on our website, available through the Symbol search box.  We … Read more

Caterpillar Crushed by Expectations for No Growth in China

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Image Source: Mining.com Heavy equipment giant Caterpillar saw its share price drop significantly following its fourth quarter report January 28 as it reported disappointing bottom-line results for the quarter and announced expectations for softness in China. By Kris Rosemann Concerns regarding macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China have dominated headlines of late, and these areas, as expressed through notable company outlooks, will remain in focus throughout this earnings season. Caterpillar’s (CAT) fourth quarter report, released January 28, was no exception as its comment on the recent demand environment and forward-looking expectations were closely dissected. The market was significantly disappointed with what it found, particularly as it relates to the company’s operating … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

Deere Expects Replacement Cycle to Continue Despite Trade Tensions

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Image Source: David Wright Deere & Co’s fiscal 2018 fourth quarter report included expectations for the replacement cycle for farm machinery to continue despite global trade tensions and other geopolitical uncertainty. Its equipment operations have performed well of late as it continues to ride a wave of solid demand. By Kris Rosemann Ag equipment giant Deere & Company (DE) reported fiscal 2018 fourth quarter earnings November 21, and the company continues to take advantage of the replacement cycle for farm machinery amid global trade tensions and other geopolitical uncertainty. New and innovative products are also helping drive its top line, according to management, and net sales advanced 18% in the fiscal fourth quarter on a year-over-year basis. Equipment net sales … Read more

Near-term Optimism at Caterpillar and Deere

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Caterpillar and Deere serve notoriously cyclical end markets, but both companies appear to be quite optimistic with their near-term outlooks, even as trade issues weigh on their international operations. Shares of Cat yield ~2.4%, while shares of Deere yield ~1.9%. By Kris Rosemann Caterpillar Raises Guidance Despite Tariff-Related Costs With trade issues casting a shadow of uncertainty for a number of multinational corporations, stocks such as Caterpillar (CAT) have attracted a notable amount of negative attention. Caterpillar’s operations source material amounts of inputs that are subject to tariffs, and the company serves markets and regions that may be most impacted by global trade tensions. Caterpillar is taking the pressure in stride, however. During in its second quarter report, released July … Read more