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ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG

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Image source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  ALERT: Adding Market Crash ‘Protection,’ Removing MSFT, BKNG — Changes to newsletter portfolios — We’re adding out-of-the-money put options to both the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Microsoft from the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. — We’re removing Booking Holdings from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — We’re making some moves in the newsletter portfolios today.  — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) is currently indicated down 900+ points in pre-market trading during the session Monday, February 24. We laid out a thesis where the US markets could experience a “crash,” and we encourage you to read that take here, “Is a … Read more

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Why *NOW* Do You Care About Boeing’s Stock?

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Image Source: Robert Sullivan In no, way shape or form should you *now* be interested in Boeing’s stock. Let’s explain. By Brian Nelson, CFA I used to cover Boeing (BA) full-time when I worked as a senior equity analyst at Morningstar many moons ago. I remember pounding the table on the name to many a buyside shop in Chicago when it must have been trading well under $100 at the time (now more than 10 years ago). I remember posting an old video of me with Pat Dorsey, who now runs his own shop in Chicago, Dorsey Asset Management. That video used to be here, but as in what usually happens on the Internet, the darn thing doesn’t exist anymore. … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Improving Our Coverage

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Valuentum continues to scour the stock market for new ideas. We’ll be following the set of companies in this list via commentary on our website and a data sheet updated periodically. By Valuentum Analysts The list of companies in the download below were previously covered by our team via 16-page report and dividend report fashion. Going forward, we are now covering these companies with commentary on the website and via a data sheet updated periodically. This will be a much better use of members’ time, especially as members scour our Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, stock methodology, dividend methodology, and the hundreds of stock valuation reports and dividend reports on our website, available through the Symbol search box.  We … Read more

Google, Intel — Yes!

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Google, Intel — Yes! — Let’s talk Google and Intel, remind you that we’ve removed Chipotle, Xilinx, and Boeing from the newsletter portfolios some time ago. I’ll talk a little about PayPal’s run higher and address some other themes, including contingent liabilities with J&J and 3M. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — We don’t get everything right, of course, but lately, we’ve been really doing a great job getting the right ideas in front of you! I’m super proud of our team at Valuentum, and I hope that you are capitalizing on our research. — In a prior article, I talked about how Facebook (FB) and Visa (V), two top-weighted ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, were on fire … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Major Airlines Industry

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Image Source: Cory Hatchel Structure of the Major Airlines Industry The airline industry has undergone meaningful changes since the beginning of the last decade. The painful restructuring by most of the legacy carriers via Chapter 11, significant consolidation by the majors, the introduction of ancillary revenue streams, and the ongoing efforts to rightsize capacity to slow weakening real yields are but a few. Though unarguably these are steps in the right direction, airlines remain shackled to the very poor structural characteristics of their industry, which has sent more to bankruptcy than any other in our coverage. Airline stocks should be viewed as merely speculative bets. We have dropped coverage of the Major Airlines industry.

FB/FIZZ Methodologically Speaking and CMG, AAPL, BA!

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, Hope you are doing great. There a few things I wanted to put on your radar this evening. We’re going to talk the importance of having CFA charterholder research at your advisory practice. We’ll discuss Facebook (FB) and National Beverage (FIZZ) in the context of our methodology, and we’re going to touch on a couple things at Chipotle (CMG), Apple (AAPL) and Boeing (BA). Did you hear about the 737 MAX 8? Not good. I also wanted to remind you of the new 40/40 Goal (click here), of which we are already making progress (the book reviews keep coming in). Thank you! First, just a quick reminder on the 40/40 Goal. We now have 15 reviews … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com