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Thinking Slow: 3 Research Blind Spots That Changed the Investment World

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Dear members: — Daniel Kahneman in his text Thinking, Fast and Slow (1) divided the human psyche into two systems. The first system is instinctive and emotional, often set on autopilot, while the second system is slower and more logical, requiring a calculating conscious. Many of the maxims the investment world takes for granted today suffer from conclusions that are made rapidly, almost without thinking, driven by our first system, creating what I call research blind spots. — In World War II, Allied bombing raids were suffering from very high casualty rates. It was estimated that for those pilots that were flying at the beginning of the war, only about 10% survived, a terrible loss rate. Bombing was crucial to the Allied … Read more

3 Undervalued Stocks to Consider Buying Now

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Dear readers:   With the markets retracing most of their recent drawdown, we’re taking a victory lap as we didn’t panic, nor should have you. We highlighted our wait-and-see approach amidst the worst of the pullback, and we expect the Magnificent 7 (large cap growth and big cap tech) to continue to propel the markets higher, as they have done.   We’ve been busy rolling valuation models as we finetune our assumptions for a great number of companies under coverage. While doing so, we came across three undervalued stocks that are also included in the simulated newsletter portfolios. We think they’re prime for highlight.   The three stocks are UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Nvidia (NVDA) and Alphabet (GOOG). We spend a lot of time on discounted cash-flow valuation, … Read more

Brain Teaser – Reflexive versus Reflective

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Dear members: — Jason Zweig of the Wall Street Journal, wrote in his pioneering text, Your Money and Your Brain, a few fun examples of how sometimes the psychological process of anchoring and adjustment can trip us up. — In one notable example, Zweig wrote about how two psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman had asked volunteers to spin a wheel of fortune numbered from 0 to 100. The contestants didn’t know that the wheel was rigged to produce either a 10 or a 65 for the experiment. — After spinning the wheel, the contestants were then asked whether the percentage of total United Nations membership made up of countries in Africa was higher or lower than the number that came up. … Read more

We Remain Bullish; Is This 1995 – The Beginning of a Huge Stock Market Run?

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Image: Large cap growth stocks have trounced the performance of the S&P 500, REITs, and bonds since the beginning of 2023. We expect continued outperformance in this area of the market. By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re now roughly four years past the depths of the COVID-19 meltdown, where equities collapsed in February and March of 2020. As the markets began to recover through 2020, our long-term conviction in equities only grew stronger. We think the biggest risk for long-term investors remains staying out of the market on the basis of what could be considered stretched valuation multiples. As we outlined heavily in the book Value Trap, valuation multiples hardly tell the complete story about a company and often omit key … Read more

12 Reasons to Stay Aggressive in 2024

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By Brian Nelson, CFA 1. The Fed has signaled that rate cuts could start with inflation at a 2 handle (2 point something) and not at exactly 2.0%. That means that the Fed may become anticipatory to prevent overshooting to the downside with inflation. We see this as positive for long-duration equities, particularly those whose free cash flow generation is robust in the out-years, inclusive of big cap tech and the stylistic area of large cap growth. 2. Unemployment is at structural lows of 3.7%. Employers are working hard to keep talent on board, and with each paycheck, employees are pumping more and more money into the stock market via retirement accounts. This tailwind remains a stiff one and will … Read more

Disney’s Free Cash Flow Is Expected to Surge But A Strong Recovery Is Already Priced In

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  Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA On November 8, Disney (DIS) reported improved fourth-quarter results for its fiscal 2023. Revenue advanced 5% on a year-over-year basis in the quarter, and the firm drove non-GAAP diluted earnings per share to $0.82 from $0.30 in the prior year period. The company’s Disney+ streaming service added 7 million core customers in the quarter, and its commentary that its streaming business would reach profitability in the fourth quarter of next fiscal year was welcome. Cost savings will be key, and the executive team expects free cash flow to grow significantly in fiscal 2024 versus the most recently reported year. All of this was great news, but a massive recovery in free cash flow … Read more

ICYMI: Questions for Valuentum’s Brian Nelson

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Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson, CFA, answers your questions. Q: What Is Valuentum? A: In short, it is a strategy that combines the concepts of value and momentum within individual stocks. We measure value through the cash-based sources of intrinsic value – net cash on the balance sheet and future expected free cash flow. We measure momentum rather simply, generally via relative strength or other technical and momentum indicators. We like stocks with strong net cash positions on the balance sheet, ones that are generating tremendous free cash flow, and have strong secular growth prospects such that the prospect for expectations of free cash flow can continue to be ratcheted higher. Today, most Valuentum stocks are included in the stylistic area … Read more

Disney’s 5-Year Returns Have Been Pitiful

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Image: Since the beginning of 2018, Disney’s shares have fallen, while the S&P 500 has surged. Though we liked the company more recently, we no longer include shares in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Brian Nelson, CFA On May 10, Walt Disney Company (DIS) reported improved second-quarter results for fiscal 2023 that showed solid double-digit consolidated revenue growth and substantial cash flow improvement on a year-over-year basis. Though the market had previously shown some love for shares upon CEO Bob Iger’s return, investors are now having to face reality. The advertising market remains difficult for linear television these days, and subscription growth in the streaming market has become even more challenging. Our fair value estimate for Disney stands at … Read more

Paramount Global Cuts Payout, Dividend Cushion Ratio Caught Another!

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Image Source: Paramount Global By Brian Nelson, CFA The Dividend Cushion ratio is not a perfect predictor of dividend health and the risks of a dividend cut, but it’s a pretty darn good one. On May 4, Paramount Global (PARA) missed expectations for its first-quarter 2023 results on both the top and bottom line and cut its quarterly dividend to $0.05 per quarter (was $0.24). The company’s Dividend Cushion ratio, which considers its balance sheet as well as future expectations of free cash flow relative to future expected cash dividends paid, was -2.5 (negative 2.5). Any ratio below 1 indicates growing risk to the health of the dividend, while any materially negative (below 0) ratio indicates severe risk of a … Read more

Disney: Iger’s Back, Peltz Concedes, Thousands of Jobs Gone, Dividend Coming Back Soon

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  Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA The Walt Disney Company (DIS) has had a rough go at it of late. The firm suffered tremendously during the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic, which forced consumers to stay at home and its parks to close. The firm eliminated its dividend to shore up cash, and recently-ousted CEO Bob Chapek may have sent the company on a crash course with Netflix (NFLX). Former CEO Bob Iger is back, however, and activist Nelson Peltz has conceded that Disney is working to get back on track. With 7,000 jobs on the chopping block and a still-yet-to-be-reinstated dividend, Disney’s wounds have yet to heal, and we remain skeptical the entertainment and media giant will … Read more