FB

Valuentum: Outlook for Europe, China Is Bleak

by

Video: Valuentum’s Associate Director of Research and Co-Portfolio Manager of the simulated newsletter portfolios, Callum Turcan, shares his thoughts about the global economy. Europe is facing considerable pressure from energy prices, while China may face a mortgage meltdown. Join Valuentum for this brief 6 minute video to get up to speed on the goings-on of the global economy and what troubles may be lurking ahead. –——— Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE. Some of the other securities written about in this article may be included in Valuentum’s simulated newsletter portfolios. Contact Valuentum for more information … Read more

Stocks Up 70%+ Since COVID-19 Pandemic Bottom, Best Ideas Outperforming So Far in 2022

by

Image Source: Mike Cohen By Brian Nelson, CFA Investors are building in near worst-case scenarios for future free cash flow expectations across our coverage universe in most cases, and it may not make a lot of sense, in our view, given the resilient nature of the global economy through thick and thin. Within the discounted cash flow model that we use to derive the fair value estimates for companies in our coverage, we apply a 10-year baseline (discount) Treasury rate of 4.5%, which is still meaningfully above the current 10-year Treasury rate that is now hovering around 3.5%. What that means is that there still remains an adequate margin of safety within our analytical framework before we might grow concerned … Read more

Taiwan Semi Firing on All Cylinders

by

Image Source: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company – First Quarter of 2022 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan Semiconductor components, or “chips,” are the bedrock of the digital economy. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) operates numerous semiconductor fabrication sites all of the world, with its major manufacturing hub located in Taiwan, that produce chips utilized in all sorts of applications. Furthermore, Taiwan Semi is one of only a handful of companies capable of producing high-end chips at scale. Taiwan Semi’s business model revolves around producing chips for third-parties as the firm does not design semiconductor components itself, and the company is the largest semiconductor foundry in the world (foundries are chip fabrication sites specifically built to meet third-party needs). We are … Read more

Shares of Best Idea Meta Platforms Leap Higher After Stellar Earnings Report!

by

Image Shown: Shares of best idea Meta Platforms Inc surged higher by ~18% in afterhours trading on April 27 after its first quarter 2022 earnings report indicated that investor fears over its core business were overblown as its daily active user base posted solid growth in March 2022. By Callum Turcan The company behind Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, Meta Platforms Inc (FB) reported first quarter 2022 earnings on April 27 that missed consensus top-line estimates but smashed past consensus bottom-line estimates. Shares of FB surged higher in the wake of its latest earnings report as the company’s family daily active people (‘DAP’) stood at 2.87 billion in March 2022, up 6% year-over-year, while its Facebook daily active users (‘DAU’) stood … Read more

Weekly: We’re Bullish on This Self-Inflicted Market Sell-Off; Plus Meta (Facebook), PayPal, Consumer Staples, and HPQ

by

Dear members: — This Valuentum Weekly is not taking on its traditional form for a number of important reasons as we want to hammer home some of our opinions in this volatile market environment. — First, I want to highlight the Recession Resistant/Consumer Staples industry, which comprises 30 fine names, many with strong dividend growth prospects. All of their stock and dividend reports have been refreshed on the website for your convenience. The stock reports for the Recession Resistant/Consumer Staples industry can be accessed by link below this introductory note. — Second, I wanted to address the sell-off that the markets have experienced to start 2022. The SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF is down roughly 6% so far year-to-date. Nothing … Read more

Valuentum Weekly: Outsized Energy Exposure Continues to Buoy Newsletter Portfolios

by

Image: Light crude oil futures once traded for roughly -$40 (negative $40) during the COVID-19 crisis, but have now rocketed to more than $120 in recent trading. Image Source: TradingView. This note was emailed to members Sunday, March 6, 2022. Markets   The S&P 500, as measured by the SPY, is down 9% year-to-date, a modest pullback, in our view, particularly in light of the fantastic performance the past few years. Though not necessarily welcome, a down year every now and then for the broader market indexes and a modest bear market can only be expected, at times. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, as measured by the DIA, is down more than 7% year-to-date (not too bad), while the Nasdaq–as measured by the … Read more

Weekly: Why We Missed Big on T and FB; Overpriced Staples, Our Call To Action; and More!

by

In this Valuentum Weekly, in video form, President of Investment Research Brian Nelson, CFA, explains why Valuentum missed big on T and FB, how volatility on names with huge market caps is spiking recklessly, and why the call to action in the book Value Trap remains as relevant as ever given current incentives. ———- Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, Valuentum Buying Index ratings, Dividend Cushion ratios, fair value estimates and ranges, dividend reports and more. Not a member? Subscribe today. The first 14 days are free.    Brian Nelson owns shares in SPY, SCHG, QQQ, DIA, VOT, BITO, and IWM. Valuentum owns SPY, SCHG, QQQ, VOO, and DIA. Brian Nelson’s household owns shares in HON, DIS, HAS, NKE. … Read more

Undervalued PINS, SNAP Rallying; FB Incredibly Mispriced, and Refreshed Consumer Discretionary Reports

by

Image: Valuentum’s Periodic Screener, February 4.  — By Valuentum Analysts — Two of the most undervalued stocks in our coverage Pinterest, Inc. (PINS) and Snap Inc. (SNAP) are indicated to rally hard February 4 after issuing positive earnings reports, providing further evidence of the importance of the discounted cash flow process and the magnet that intrinsic value estimates are to stock prices. Pinterest is indicated up ~14%, while Snap is indicated up ~47% based on the latest information we have. — The refreshed Valuentum periodic data screener is now available for download on our website (it can be found in the ‘Stock Screens’ section in the left column of our website). The periodic data screener, which also includes updated fair value estimates on … Read more

The Facebook (Meta Platforms) Thesis Just Got Even More Complicated

by

Image: Facebook’s free cash flow generation remains robust. Image Source: Meta Earnings Presentation Q4 2021 By Brian Nelson, CFA We like simple ideas — underpriced investment ideas with moaty characteristics, net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential that are tied to secular growth trends over the long haul. The company formerly known as Facebook, now Meta Platforms (FB), has had all these things going for it, but it is no longer a simple idea. That doesn’t mean we’re abandoning ship, however. No story is perfect. Nevertheless, we’re putting Meta Platform’s fair value estimate under review following its fourth-quarter 2021 results, released February 2, and while we expect shares to still come out underpriced following our model … Read more