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Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Improving Our Coverage

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Valuentum continues to scour the stock market for new ideas. We’ll be following the set of companies in this list via commentary on our website and a data sheet updated periodically. By Valuentum Analysts The list of companies in the download below were previously covered by our team via 16-page report and dividend report fashion. Going forward, we are now covering these companies with commentary on the website and via a data sheet updated periodically. This will be a much better use of members’ time, especially as members scour our Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, stock methodology, dividend methodology, and the hundreds of stock valuation reports and dividend reports on our website, available through the Symbol search box.  We … Read more

Ebix Might Be a Value Trap

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Image Source: Ebix Inc – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Ebix Inc (EBIX) is a leading international provider of on-demand software and e-commerce services to the healthcare, insurance, financial, and e-learning industries. In our latest 16-page stock report covering Ebix, which can be viewed here, the low end of the fair value estimate range stands at $44/share. With shares of Ebix trading well below that at ~$34/share as of this writing, it would appear at first glance that the technology company may be an appealing capital appreciation opportunity. However, please note that the firm’s techincals are terrible and have been getting worse after staging a short-lived recovery in early-2019, indicating the firm may represent a Value Trap. As of this … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Software Industry

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Structure of the Software Industry Firms that serve the mature software markets—or those consisting of basic business applications—have powerful distribution channels, large installed bases, and fortress balance sheets. These entrenched competitors benefit from significant customer switching costs, which make it nearly impossible for new entrants to gain a foothold. Participants generally benefit from high-margin license revenue and generate significant returns on investment. Still, the shift to cloud computing has created both opportunities and challenges, and the enterprise software landscape continues to evolve. We like the group. We’ve optimized our tehnology coverage. To access the reports, please select here.

Booking Holdings’ Quarter; Still More MLP Transparency Needed, More Reports

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— Booking Holdings’ Quarter; Still More MLP Transparency Needed, More Reports —  In alphabetical order by ticker symbol: ALB, BKNG, DDD, ET, GPRO, JD, KDP, OSTK, SONO, YELP  —  Albemarle (ALB): Albemarle remains on our list of unique ideas in the chemicals space. The company is heavily tied to lithium production, and it has one of the lowest-cost positions for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide (a source of sustainable competitive advantage). We view this as a fantastic opportunity, especially as it relates to expectations for a surge in electric vehicle demand in coming years. Though lithium represents just one portion of its specialty chemicals operations (it also produces bromine specialties and catalysts), the company’s diversification has rewarded shareholders with more than … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

Valuentum’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Distribution

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The weighted average cost of capital is one of the most subjective measures in corporate finance, but it is also one of the most important ones. “The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates…If interest rates are destined to be at low levels…It makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money. The bogey is always what government bonds yield….Any investment is worth all the cash you’re going to get out between now and judgment day discounted back. The discounting back is affected by whether you choose interests rates like those of Japan or interest rates like those we had in 1982…When we had 15 percent short-term rates in 1982, it was silly to pay … Read more

Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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To read the study, please click on the image to download the pdf document (pdf).