DASH

Chipotle Sees Bigger Unit Growth Opportunity in North America, Continued Pricing Power

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Image: Chipotle’s shares look like they are poised to break out of a downtrend on news that its long-term unit restaurant opportunity is bigger than expected and that its pricing power remains intact. By Brian Nelson, CFA Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) and Domino’s Pizza Inc. (DPZ) are two of our favorite restaurant ideas, with the former and Yum Brands’ (YUM) helping to drive restaurant stocks higher after the market’s reaction to their respective calendar fourth-quarter reports during the trading session February 9, 2022. Year-to-date, the AdvisorShares Restaurant ETF (EATZ) has held up better than most other investable areas, down modestly, and we think the relative strength is a big win for investors in the restaurant sector in light of … Read more

Large Cap Growth Has More Room To Run

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“The stylistic area of large cap growth has been one of our favorite areas because of the strong net cash rich, free cash flow generating, secular growth powerhouses that make up much of the space. The image is a rundown of the key Valuentum statistics for the top 15 holdings of the Schwab U.S. Large Cap Growth ETF (SCHG). We believe where large cap growth goes, so does the broader market, considering the hefty weightings of some of these stocks in other broad-based indices. Based on the high end of our fair value estimate range for this group of bellwethers, the broader U.S. markets still have room to run, to the tune of 7%+, despite the many highs already reached … Read more

Best Idea Chipotle Mexican Grill’s Growth Runway is Enormous

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Image Shown: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc’s restaurant level unit economics continued to improve in the third quarter of 2021, supporting the company’s growth trajectory. Image Source: Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc – Third Quarter of 2021 Non-GAAP Reconciliation Presentation By Callum Turcan On October 21, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) reported third-quarter 2021 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Comparable restaurant sales grew 15% year-over-year last quarter as Chipotle’s e-commerce business held up well, with digital sales up 9% year-over-year (representing 43% of its total sales during this period), while customers resumed in-store dining activities in earnest. We liked what we saw in Chipotle’s latest earnings report. Shares of CMG are included as an idea in the Best … Read more

Best Idea Chipotle Rockets Higher!

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Image Shown: We include Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc an as idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. On July 21, shares of CMG surged higher after the firm reported a stellar earnings report after the market close on July 20. By Callum Turcan On July 20, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) reported second-quarter 2021 earnings that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The company’s comparable store sales boomed higher by over 31% year-over-year as Chipotle’s customer base returned to its in-store dining offerings in the wake of coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) containment efforts getting eased across the US. Its digital sales were up almost 11% year-over-year and represented a little under half of its total revenues. Chipotle’s momentum is expected to … Read more

Energy: A Small Part of the S&P 500 But Making a Comeback

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Image Source: Bureau of Land Management By Callum Turcan and Brian Nelson, CFA The energy sector remains a small part of the S&P 500 (SPY), coming in at just ~3% nowadays. Collapsing energy resource prices, overspending on capital projects, and a fallout in the pipeline MLP space have been primary causes for the sector’s ever-shrinking representation in the S&P 500 over the past five years or so, but we still think some exposure is warranted. For starters, we currently include a 1-2% weighting in the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) and a 3%-5% weighting in energy-heavy Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. During the past several months, raw energy resource pricing, from crude oil (USO) to natural … Read more

Domino’s Pizza Well-Positioned for Long Run

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Image Shown: Domino’s has the right business model for the long haul. Unit economics are fantastic for franchisees, while same-store sales continue to benefit from first-mover digital initiatives. Earnings per share growth has been stellar for the past decade. Image Source: April 2021 Presentation. By Brian Nelson, CFA It could be a Tuesday afternoon or a Friday night. It’s never been easier to have your order from Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) delivered to your doorstep. With a few clicks on the app, you can place your order, track the pizza from the oven through delivery, and even know the name of the driver – all within a matter of minutes. From the young family looking for something quick and easy to … Read more

Chipotle Could Double the Number of Restaurants in the Long Run

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Image Source: Valuentum By Brian Nelson, CFA “Letting winners run” is an important dynamic behind the concept of compounding, and it often makes having a long-term horizon necessary. I talk about how we think about “letting winners run” in the following video, “Valuentum’s Brian Nelson on the Latest Howard Marks’ Memo: “Something of Value.” Compounding returns is one powerful aspect of investing. That said, we can understand why it may be confusing to see us continue to highlight ideas in the simulated newsletter portfolios that may be trading above the high end of the fair value estimate range, but per the Valuentum methodology, we would only look to remove them when their shares start to roll over in a meaningful … Read more

Chipotle Improving Its Digital Menu to Support Its E-commerce Growth Runway

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Image Shown: Over the past year, shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc have been on an upward tear, supported by the restaurant’s improving omni-channel selling capabilities. By Callum Turcan Shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) surged higher during normal trading hours March 9 after the firm announced it was adding customizable quesadilla offerings to its digital menu in the US and Canada starting March 11. This offering is only available for customers ordering while using Chipotle’s digital platforms (potentially due to the longer preparation times) and will likely require new cooking equipment at the company’s restaurants. The company offers both home delivery and curbside/drive-thru pickup services (including its order ahead and pickup services) through its digital platform. We continue … Read more

Earnings Roundup: BYND, DASH, DPZ, NVDA

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Image Shown: Shares of DoorDash Inc tumbled after the food delivery service reported its latest earnings report near the end of February 2021. In alphabetical order by ticker: BYND, DASH, DPZ, NVDA By Callum Turcan In this article, we’ve highlighted four companies that just reported their latest results. Domestic and international economic activities continued to face major headwinds from the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic near the end of last year and into the beginning of this year, though corporates are now starting to plan for a world when “pre-pandemic” activities (such as going to eat indoors at a restaurant) can resume in earnest. Global health authorities are working to put an end to the public health crisis via ongoing COVID-19 vaccine … Read more

ALERT: Bull Raids, Short Squeezes and Highly Unusual Market Activity

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We are putting short investors on high alert! By Brian Nelson, CFA In late 2018, Valuentum published Value Trap, a book that warned to all that would heed its warning that a collapse in the traditional quant value factor was coming and that excessive volatility in the markets caused by price-agnostic trading–or those that aren’t paying attention to fair value estimate calculations–would only build and build to eventually reach extreme and irrational levels. The book, while hugely successful winning award after award, was largely ignored by the media, despite our best efforts to get the word out. Now, the chickens are coming home to roost. Image Shown: The book Value Trap warned about the impending collapse of the value factor, … Read more