BABA

Starboard and Yahoo

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The Marissa Mayer hype has been exciting and refreshing. But with Mayer and the executive suite having done little to turn around the core operations of Yahoo (YHOO), and more recently snubbing talks about tying the knot with AOL (AOL), the time may be ripe for a shakeup. Activist investor and investment management firm Starboard Value thinks so. In an open letter to Mayer and the board of directors of Yahoo, Starboard Value announced that it has acquired a significant ownership stake in the beleaguered, and once-relevant, Internet portal.  Starboard outlined a case for Yahoo to monetize the company’s non-core minority equity investments (Alibaba, Yahoo Japan) in a tax-efficient manner and tie-up with AOL, which itself has been on the … Read more

Gaming Troubles: Macau Gaming Revenue Under Pressure

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Gambling in Macau, the Las Vegas of China or the “Monte Carlo of the Orient,” continues to fall, with September likely marking the fourth consecutive month of declines. According to some estimates, the gaming revenue drop in September will be in the double-digits. There are several issues plaguing Macau and driving uncertainty for many of the operators. Casino City Times perhaps said it best in their piece: Macau mired in cold streak: The mainland Chinese government is on an anti-corruption crusade, which has frightened off some high-end customers. Meanwhile, new visa restrictions implemented by Beijing have slowed visitation from neighboring provinces. A smoking ban on mass-market gaming floors will be implemented Oct. 6, adding uncertainty to revenue trends. Also in … Read more

What Is Fat Pitch Investing?

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“I call investing the greatest business in the world … because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate, the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! and nobody calls a strike on you. There’s no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it.” —Warren Buffett, Interview in Forbes magazine (1 November 1974) “The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don’t have to swing at everything — you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you’re a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, ‘Swing, you bum!’” –Warren Buffett, 1999 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, … Read more

Assessing Materiality of 5 Relatively Poor Incremental Data Points from eBay

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eBay (EBAY) has one of the strongest business models on the market today. The firm uniquely benefits from a network effect in its auction business and a secular trend toward consumer online consumption in its payments business, PayPal. Recent same-store sales performance has also been solid, albeit slowing, in recent periods. According to ChannelAdvisor same-store sales growth at eBay came in at 11.5% in May, down from 14% in April. eBay retains a vibrant Economic Castle. Before we start walking through the five relatively poor incremental data points from eBay, we need to make a couple things clear. First, we hold eBay in the portfolio of our Best Ideas Newsletter, and we do not expect to make any changes to … Read more

Baidu’s Internet Presence in China Is Phenomenal

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By Brian Nelson, CFA With a population of over 1.3 billion people, more than 4 times the population of the US, China is flush with opportunities. We at Valuentum think one of the greatest long-term investment opportunities in the country has to do with ongoing Internet penetration, specifically related to search engine use and technology. Baidu (BIDU) is at the forefront of increased Internet penetration in China, and its recent results have showed fantastic sales expansion. For example, the firm noted that total revenue advanced nearly 60% in its most recently-reported first quarter from the corresponding period in 2013. For me, the relationship with Baidu goes back almost ten years when I worked at a buyside firm that was lucky to … Read more

Baidu Dollars Likely Shifting to Alibaba Near Term; Raising Our Fair Value of Yahoo

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Valuentum previewed the valuation of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba in October 2013. Today, we’ve updated our analysis of the company in the table below and have raised our intrinsic value estimate to approximately $100 billion from $75 billion previously. This revision has had a relatively large per-share upward re-valuation of the shares of 24%-owner Yahoo (YHOO) in its 16-page report. Softbank, which owns more than 35% of Alibaba, will also see a more optimistic slant towards its own valuation in coming periods. Our updated valuation details of Alibaba are shown below. The previous table had a typo regarding the long-term growth rate of the perpetuity calculation, which has been corrected in the table above. Though we think our forecasts are … Read more

Get To Know Yahoo!’s Management; We Value Alibaba at $75 Billion

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The only question that comes to mind after looking at the below slide is: What turnaround? Image Source: Yahoo GAAP revenue down 5%. Revenue ex-TAC down 1%. Adjusted EBITDA down 19%. Income from operations down 39%. Non-GAAP operating income down 27%. Net earnings down 91%. EPS attributable to Yahoo down 89%. Non-GAAP EPS down 13%. Free cash flow down 73%. Cash and marketable securities down 66%. It’s flat-out puzzling that CEO Marissa Mayer included the following statement in the third-quarter press release: “I’m very pleased with our execution, especially as we’ve continued to invest in and strengthen our core business.” We understand the importance of staying positive, but her statement is quite a stretch considering actual financial performance at the core Yahoo business.  The only line item in … Read more

US Congress Is Getting Ready to Pass a Massive ~$2.2 Trillion Fiscal Stimulus Bill

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Image Shown: US equities have started to recover some of their lost ground as the likelihood that the US Congress will pass a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus and emergency spending package, dubbed the CARES Act, has increased significantly over the past week as seen through the bounce in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY). President Trump has clearly indicated that he intends to sign such a bill into law as soon as possible, with the US House of Representatives expected to take up the legislation this upcoming Friday morning on March 27. By Callum Turcan On March 25, the US Senate worked late into the night to secure a bipartisan compromise on a massive ~$2.2 trillion fiscal stimulus … Read more

How Do We Use the Valuentum Buying Index?

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How Do We Use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI)? By Brian Nelson, CFA   Hi everyone,     Hope you are doing great!  We often receive questions about how we use the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI) rating system, one of the key metrics we use to source ideas for our members, but we think it is equally important to mention up front that the VBI is only one of the many facets of our website and services. For example, if you haven’t checked out the Dividend Cushion ratios on the stocks in your portfolio or the dividend growth product (from individual reports to the newsletter and beyond), surely you are not maximizing your membership! Don’t forget about the Economic Castle rating, … Read more