ACIW

Is a Stock Market Crash Coming? — Coronavirus Update and P/E Ratios

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Image Source: World Health Organization, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Situation Report — 32 We don’t think this is the environment to put new capital to work, and we remain highly cautious of what COVID-19 means for global economic growth not just in the first quarter of 2020 but for the rest of this year (maybe longer). Right now, the US markets are not really factoring in anything related to COVID-19, and perhaps may be adjusting to China’s stimulus in artificially propping up the markets as if the outbreak is somehow a “positive thing.” With the S&P 500 trading at 19.0 forward earnings estimates–estimates that are likely too high given the evidence we are seeing with respect to a slowdown due … Read more

PayPal Closes Out a Stellar 2019 and the Future Looks Bright

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Image Shown: PayPal Holdings Inc has been a big winner in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and we expect that to continue being the case going forward. By Callum Turcan PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) is one of our favorite companies out there in the payment processing/financial tech space, up there with top weighted Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Visa Inc (V), and back on January 13 (link here) we increased our weighting in shares of PYPL in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We like PayPal’s rock-solid balance sheet, quality cash flow profile, and most importantly, its growth outlook. Guidance Commentary On January 29, PayPal reported fourth-quarter and full year earnings for 2019, and the company continued to outperform. The firm … Read more

Resetting Your Mental Model

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Image Source: affen ajlfe A version of this article was originally published on our website October 6, 2013. Having the right mental model and using the right information can be the reason why you win or lose in investing. “What is the definition of timeliness? Many believe it is getting information to investors as quickly as possible after an event, or updating something every single day or week for immaterial information. I believe in a different definition of timeliness. I believe timeliness is using all information available in a mosaic approach to accurately predict the event before it even happens. Take Kinder Morgan as the latest example. We were the only ones predicting what was going to happen before it did. To investors, … Read more

Visa Enhances Its Long-Term Outlook

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Top weighted Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Visa continues to augment its long-term outlook for the betterment of its shareholders, in our view. By Callum Turcan On January 13, top weighted Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding Visa Inc (V) announced it was buying financial tech company Plaid for $5.3 billion. Plaid primarily offers a network that allows consumers to connect financial accounts to apps securely and safely, meaning that when a consumer downloads a mobile financial-oriented app to their phone (for example), Plaid is the company that ensures a smooth connection between app and the relevant financial institution when it comes to transferring information and ultimately money. What’s important about this acquisition is that Visa, once again, is showcasing its … Read more

Improving Our Coverage

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Valuentum continues to scour the stock market for new ideas. We’ll be following the set of companies in this list via commentary on our website and a data sheet updated periodically. By Valuentum Analysts The list of companies in the download below were previously covered by our team via 16-page report and dividend report fashion. Going forward, we are now covering these companies with commentary on the website and via a data sheet updated periodically. This will be a much better use of members’ time, especially as members scour our Best Ideas Newsletter, Dividend Growth Newsletter, stock methodology, dividend methodology, and the hundreds of stock valuation reports and dividend reports on our website, available through the Symbol search box.  We … Read more

Our Reports on Stocks in the Financial Tech Services Industry

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Image Source: frankieleon Structure of the Financial Tech Services Industry The financial tech services industry is primarily composed of firms that generate revenue by charging fees to customers for providing transaction processing and other payment-related services. Constituents operate in a rapidly-evolving legal/regulatory environment, particularly with respect to interchange fees, data protection, and information security. Several participants benefit from a significant competitive advantage – the network effect. As more consumers use credit/debit cards, more merchants accept them, thereby creating a virtuous cycle. The industry is one of the most attractive in our coverage. We’ve optimized our tehnology coverage. To access the reports, please select here.

Portfolio Holdings Intel and Visa Hit It Out of the Park

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Image Shown: Shares of Intel Corporation leapt higher on Friday October 25 as the market digested its solid earnings report and guidance for this quarter. By Callum Turcan Intel One of our favorite Dividend Growth Newsletter and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolios holdings, Intel Corporation (INTC), posted third quarter fiscal 2019 earnings (period ended September 28) on October 24 that handily beat consensus top and bottom line estimates. Revenue in the third quarter on a GAAP basis came in at $19.2 billion, flat year-over-year, which management noted was $1.2 billion higher than guidance issued out in July. This outperformance was driven by Intel’s ‘data-centric’ offerings, with sales up 6% year-over-year, as Intel Xeon processors for data centers sold well. Additionally, Intel … Read more

Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Holding PayPal Can Thrive in a Post-eBay World

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Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan We continue to like Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding PayPal Holdings (PYPL) as a way to gain exposure to the very attractive payment processing and financial technology industry, complementing our top-weighted Visa Inc (V) holding. Our fair value estimate stands at $125 per share of PYPL, and we love its ability to generate shareholder value (indicated by PayPal’s Very Attractive Economic Castle rating). The company does not pay out a common dividend at this time, however; if PayPal did, it could be a significant one given its strong free cash flows. From 2016-2018, PayPal’s annual free cash flows averaged $3.0 billion as the firm is very capex-lite (relatively speaking, … Read more

Why We Like BIN Holding Visa So Much

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Image Source: Visa Inc – 2018 Annual Report By Callum Turcan One of our favorite holdings in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio is Visa (V), which has been included in the portfolio since November 2011 (see BIN transaction log here). Visa’s growth story is straightforward. The company is a secular growth play on the emergence of a global cashless society, one that is increasingly relying on debit and credit cards for most transactions. We think there’s still an enormous amount of room left to go on this front, especially in emerging and developing markets. We assign Visa a fair value estimate of $182/share (updated in the middle of August) and the top end of our fair value estimate range sits … Read more

Best Ideas Holding Visa Posts a Great Quarter, We Continue to Like the Name

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Image Source: Visa Corporation – IR Presentation By Callum Turcan One of our favorite companies out there and a top holding in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Visa Corporation (V) reported fiscal third quarter FY2019 earnings on July 23 that were overall a net positive. Shares initially sold off on July 24 before recovering throughout the trading session and ended up over 1%. At the upper end of our fair value estimate range, we value Visa at $184 per share, and while Visa has performed tremendously since we added it to our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, we remain confident that shares have room to climb higher. Please note that Visa’s fiscal third quarter for fiscal year 2019 ended on June … Read more