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US Considering $1 Trillion (Or More) Fiscal Stimulus Program

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Image Source: Frank Boston By Callum Turcan A lot has changed in a short period of time since we published our first note covering the potential for a major US fiscal stimulus program back on March 10 (link here). Due to the sheer amount of pummeling the stock and credit markets have taken over the past few weeks, along with consumer, business, and investor confidence at-large (we’ll get a better read on that over time), it seems that both Democrats and Republicans are now more open to a major fiscal stimulus program than before. The ‘Survey of Consumers’ conducted by the University of Michigan notes the ‘Index of Consumer Sentiment’ fell from 101.0 in February 2020 down to 95.9 in … Read more

Top Ten Ideas for Consideration Amid COVID-19

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Image: Key metrics of ten of the top ideas investors might start considering given the massive declines in the equity markets of late. Source: Valuentum calculations, SEC Filings, Yahoo! Finance, Morningstar.  By Callum Turcan The novel coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic continues to sweep the world, and governments are shutting down business activity, driving most of the global economy to a screeching halt. In such an environment, we don’t think investors should go bottom-fishing on some of the worst businesses that have been beaten up the most during this crisis, but rather, we think this crisis is giving investors the opportunity to consider positions in some of the strongest companies out there. In this members-only article, we cover ten high quality, “moaty” names … Read more

Buybacks and Wealth Destruction

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Buybacks and Wealth Destruction — — From Value Trap: “According to S&P Dow Jones Indices, S&P 500 stock buybacks alone totaled $519.4 billion in 2017, $536.4 billion in 2016, and $572.2 billion in 2015. In 2018, announced buybacks hit $1.1 trillion. Given all the global wealth that has been accumulated through the 21st century, it may seem hard to believe that another Great Depression is even possible. However, in the event of a structural shock to the marketplace where aggregate enterprise values for companies are fundamentally reset lower, the vast amount of cash spent on buybacks would only make matters worse. The money that had been spent on buybacks could have been distributed to shareholders in the form of a dividend or even … Read more

Dow Fell 9.99%, Worst Point Drop in History, More Nibbling?

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Dow Fell 9.99%, Worst Point Drop in History, More Nibbling? — Image: On March 12, 2020, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2,353 points, the most in its history, and the most in percentage terms since Black Monday in 1987. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 9.99% March 12, 2020, to 21,200.62. — From Value Trap: During the dark days of 2008 and 2009…where widespread and indiscriminate selling was prevalent, correlations among stock sectors rose considerably. According to data from Morningstar, average daily correlation over the trailing six months between individual stocks increased to 0.66 at the end of 2011 from just 0.10 in 1994. The average sector correlation for monthly returns on the S&P 500 index was 0.84 during the Financial Crisis … Read more

Seeds of Financial Crisis May Have Been Sown, Volatility Soars

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Seeds of Financial Crisis May Have Been Sown, Volatility Soars — Image Shown: The broader market indices continue to reveal tremendous levels of volatility. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 5.86%, or 1,465 points, to 23,553 during the trading session March 11.—From Value Trap: It seems like the markets experience a new financial crisis every decade or so. During the past few decades alone, there have been three significant banking crises: the savings and loan crisis of the late 1980s/early 1990s; the fall of Long-Term Capital Management and the Russian/Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s; and the Great Recession of the last decade that not only toppled Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, Washington Mutual, and Wachovia but also caused the seizure of … Read more

S&P 500 Hits Target Range, Nibbling at Ideas?

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This article was emailed to members the morning of March 10. The email can be accessed here. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Very few bearish targets on the S&P 500 (SPY) ever get hit, but with the momentous all-time worst decline in the stock market March 9 (on a point basis), our target range of 2,350-2,750 has been breached–yet, another great call for those watching at home. The S&P 500 closed at 2,746.56 March 9, off about 19% from the all-time highs it reached just a few weeks ago. You have been ahead of developments. — As we have outlined extensively in Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation, the combination of indexing and quantitative algorithmic trading is creating a situation of tremendous … Read more

Fiscal Stimulus Coming to the US?

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Image Shown: The Trump Administration is reportedly considering pushing for fiscal stimulus to offset the likely slowdown in US economic activity during the first half of 2020, which is arguably why equity markets are looking to rebound on Tuesday, March 10, after a harrowing trading session on Monday, March 9. By Callum Turcan US equity markets (SPY) started up strongly initially on Tuesday, March 10, likely due to reports coming out that the Trump Administration was considering recommending payroll tax cuts, paid leave, and special loans to small businesses to offset the negative impacts of the novel coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) epidemic. There are over 560 reported cases of COVID-19 in the US as of this writing, and unfortunately, that includes roughly … Read more

S&P 500 Circuit Breakers Tripped, Dow Jones Opens Down 2,000+ Points

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Image: The market remains under selling pressure, but the massive sell off the past couple weeks has only amounted to but a blip since the beginning of 2010. There could be more pain ahead. By Brian Nelson, CFA After a pre-market session March 9 that locked futures at “limit down” (futures are limited from dropping more than 5%), most investors were laser-focused on the moves of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which pre-market had been hovering around the $276 per-share range, off about 7%. Shortly after market open, circuit breakers were then tripped with the S&P 500 falling 7%, stopping trading for 15 minutes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 2,000 points. We are maintaining our S&P 500 … Read more

Oil Prices Collapse, Reiterating 2,350-2,750 S&P 500 Target Range; Credit Crunch Looming?

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Image Source: Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation From Value Trap: “The banking sector was not the only sector that faced considerable selling pressure during the Financial Crisis of the late 2000s, of course. Other companies that required funding to maintain their business operations faced severe liquidity risk, or a situation where refinancing, or rolling over debt, might be difficult to do on fair terms, making such financing prohibitive in some cases. Those that faced outsize debt maturities during the most severe months of the credit crunch faced a real threat of Chapter 11 restructuring had the lending environment completely seized. In thinking about share prices as a range of probable fair value outcomes, equity prices tend to face pressure as … Read more

ALERT: Re-establishing “Crash Protection”

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ALERT: Re-establishing “Crash Protection” — —  From Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation:  — “According to some estimates, fundamental traders, or those trading on firm-specific fundamentals, account for just 10% of trading on the exchanges today. Passive and quantitative investing, or price-agnostic trading, accounts for 6 times as much. Prices are set on the marginal trade, not on the amount of assets under management, and if most market participants aren’t trading on underlying business value, this in turn, can cause widespread dislocations in prices versus reasonably estimated intrinsic values (dislocations that may never fully be reconciled even over long periods of time). In such a scenario, the capital-raising function of markets could become significantly less attractive. What CEO would want the … Read more