Brian Nelson

Retail Roundup: Home Depot and Walmart Report Earnings

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Image Source: Home Depot Inc – June 2019 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan In this article we cover two major retailers that reported strong comparable store sales growth in the face of the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. E-commerce offerings and past digital investments have been key to supporting sales growth at major retail firms, and those that haven’t made these investments are in a far worse position than HD and WMT. Home Depot On May 19, Home Depot Inc (HD) reported first-quarter earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended May 3, 2020) that beat consensus top-line estimates and missed consensus bottom-line estimates. Comparable store sales were up 6.4% year-over-year, including up 7.5% at its US stores. Home Depot announced $850 million … Read more

Video: A Call for More Policy Action in a Post COVID-19 World

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Image: There may no longer be any basis for believing in efficient markets. Investors were bidding up the price of the wrong company because of confusion over its ticker symbol. This is just one example of how markets are inefficient.  Bailouts coupled with Fed and Treasury stimulus from COVID-19 will have profound implications on investment behavior, with expectations for indexing and quantitative strategies to continue to proliferate. New rules may be required to ensure that investors’ interests are truly being put first. President of Valuentum Brian Nelson presents a call to action. To watch the video >> Tickerized for the following: AMTD, BLK, DNB, FDS, IBKR, LPLA, MCO, MORN, NTRS, RJF, SCHW, SPGI, TRI, TROW, VALU –— Valuentum members have … Read more

Earnings Roundup for Week Ended May 17

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Image Shown: We cover several earnings reports in this article across several sectors and industries to provide an overview of how corporates performed during the early stages of the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. 

Reducing expenses, generating efficiency gains, and ultimately improving the cost structure of corporates appears to be a key theme during the first-quarter 2020 earnings cycle. Management teams across the board are hunkering down and preparing for the pain to continue as global economic activity is expected to grind to a halt in the second quarter of 2020, before recovering somewhat due in part to massive fiscal and monetary stimulus measures that were launched to offset the negative impact COVID-19 is having on economic activity.

Cisco Systems Remains Resilient During These Challenging Times

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Image Source: Cisco Systems Inc – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On May 13, Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO) reported earnings for the third quarter of its fiscal 2020 (period ended April 25, 2020) that beat consensus estimates on both the top- and bottom-lines. Within the report, management provided guidance for the fiscal fourth quarter that wasn’t as bad as the market had feared. Though the firm’s revenues are still expected to decline by high single-digits to low double-digits on a year-over-year basis in the fiscal fourth quarter, the market was expecting a significantly worse impact from the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic as it relates to Cisco Systems’ financial performance. Shares of CSCO yield ~3.3% … Read more

Under Armour Potentially Faces a Serious Liquidity Crunch

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Image Shown: Under Armour Inc may face a serious liquidity crunch if its creditors don’t extend the maturity length of the borrowings under its revolving credit facility. By Callum Turcan On May 11, Under Armour Inc (UA) reported earnings for the first quarter of 2020 with its GAAP revenues declining by 23% year-over-year, and management attributed ~1500 basis points of that decline to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. On the flip side, Under Armour’s GAAP gross margins improved by ~110 basis points year-over-year due to reduced pricing discounts, though COVID-19 weighed against the company’s performance in this area as well. Under Armour reported a GAAP net loss of $590 million in the first quarter of 2020 due to rising operating … Read more

Valuentum’s COVID-19 Ideas Have Outperformed Significantly

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Image Shown: Valuentum released two sets of its top 10 ideas for capital appreciation and dividend growth, respectively, during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both sets of ideas have performed extremely well. —By Brian Nelson, CFA —Hi everyone, — I wanted to check in to see how you are doing. I’ll talk a little about the table above in a bit, which goes into our top ideas amid the COVID-19 pandemic, but first, I wanted to keep the Exclusive publication in front of you (if you haven’t yet subscribed). In the Exclusive publication, we’re now setting up to get the 26th consecutive monthly short idea correct! I can hardly believe it.  — The May edition was released last Saturday, and our team continues to … Read more

Digital Realty Trust is Holding Up Quite Well

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Image Shown: Shares of Digital Realty Trust Inc, a holding in both our Dividend Growth Newsletter and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolios, have outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY) by a wide margin over the past year and that’s before taking dividend considerations into account. By Callum Turcan On May 7, the data center real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) Digital Realty Trust Inc (DLR) reported first-quarter 2020 earnings. Though the firm’s near-term guidance disappointed investors, management communicated that the medium- and long-term trajectory of Digital Realty’s financial and operational performance remained strong. Furthermore, its liquidity position and its dividend coverage continued to be rock-solid, particularly after factoring in the data center REIT’s ongoing access to equity markets and lack of near-term … Read more

Realty Income Signals Turbulence Ahead, Shores Up Liquidity Position

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Image Source: Realty Income Corporation – First Quarter of 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On May 4, the real estate investment trust (‘REIT’) Realty Income Corporation (O) posted first-quarter 2020 earnings that saw its adjusted funds from operations (‘AFFO’) per share jump by over 7% year-over-year, hitting $0.78 last quarter. Realty Income pays out a monthly dividend, and shares of O yield ~5.1% as of this writing. We like the REIT’s business model, which invests in single-tenant commercial properties, and we view Realty Income as well-positioned to ride out the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. However, we caution that its near-term financial performance will come under fire from some of its tenants no longer being able to (or willing … Read more

Unicredit Is Best Worth Avoiding

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The combination of revenue pressure from lower rates, a difficult operating environment, weakening efficiency metrics, one-off losses, and arguable low provisions for credit losses make for an ugly picture emerging at Unicredit at this time. We’re paying close attention to the key banking players in Europe to assess the likelihood of a global financial contagion that may accompany the global pandemic that has become COVID-19. By Matthew Warren Unicredit (UNCFF) posted dismal first-quarter results May 6 that showed revenue falling 8.2% and negative “underlying net profit” of EUR 100 million from the same period last year. Stated net profit in the period was even worse at negative EUR 2.706 billion, including integration costs in Italy (EWI), a loss related to … Read more

Republic Services: “The Worst Is Behind Us…”

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The waste industry has a number of cost levers to pull to overcome profit pressures in its residential pick-up operations and reduced volume in its commercial and industrial operations, the latter a higher margin proposition. However, economic activity seems to be picking up, and some are saying the worst may be behind us. Our favorite waste hauler is Republic Services. By Brian Nelson, CFA We talked a lot about the waste industry in the book Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation, explaining why the oligopolistic structure of the trash-taking space is much more attractive than the oligopolistic structure of the airline industry. For one, the former holds tremendous pricing power (consumers might be willing to pay up to get their … Read more