VRE

REITs Will Likely Continue To Underperform

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Stock prices and returns are in part a function of the cash-based sources of intrinsic value: net cash on the balance sheet and future expectations of free cash flow. Though there are many ways to slice and dice a company with respect to equity analysis, to arrive at an intrinsic value estimate of a firm, it generally comes down to these two important cash-based dynamics. Due to the nature of their business models, most REITs have lofty net debt positions, and many are investing in real estate at a pace that is faster than that which they are generating operating cash flow. One good example of the trouble brewing on many a REIT’s cash flow statement … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of September 29

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending September 29. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Accenture (ACN): now $1.29 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.12. Bancolombia S.A. (CIB): now $0.892 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.852. Bankinter, S.A. (BKNIY): now $0.1105 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.0818. Barratt Development plc (BTDPY): now $0.5893 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.2535. Bid Corporation Limited (BDDDY): now $0.266 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.240. CenterPoint (CNP): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more

ICYMI: Let’s Play Devil’s Advocate: What’s the Bear Case for Realty Income?

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By Brian Nelson, CFA We like Realty Income Corp. (O) a lot, but it’s not hard to see that the REIT could potentially have all the makings of a black swan. For one, the stock is loved by almost everyone–REIT investors, income investors, and dividend growth investors alike. Many are simply enamored by its monthly dividend, which it has raised nearly 120 times since it was listed on the NYSE in 1994. Over its 54-year history, the REIT has paid 632 consecutive monthly dividends, too. There’s a ton of things to like about Realty Income, but for this note, let’s build and examine the bear case, one that can be broken into three pillars: 1) its retail exposure, 2) its … Read more

SVB Financial, Silvergate Capital, Credit Suisse Reveal Cracks in Global Financial System

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Image: SVB Financial looks to be collateral damage of the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle, and we can’t rule out that other regional banks could have also managed interest-rate risk wrong. Shares of SVB Financial have collapsed, and other banks could be facing similar issues that have yet to come to light. Image Source: TradingView By Brian Nelson, CFA We don’t include any banks in the newsletter portfolios, but we include slight “exposure” to the Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, primarily for diversification reasons. We have never been fans of the banking business model, and here is what we wrote in the first edition of Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation: It’s likely we will have … Read more

Why Are the Dividends of REITs So Risky?

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Not all REIT dividends are safe. Many REITs remain capital-market dependent, and some office REITs, retail REITs, and healthcare REITs may be difficult places to generate dependable long-term income in the coming decades, in our view. Office REIT SL Green (SLG) recently cut its payout 13% on December 5, 2022, while another office REIT Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) cut its dividend 29% on January 18, 2023. These are just two of the latest high-profile REIT dividend cuts, and there may be more to come. Contrary to popular opinion, the REIT sector has not been a great source of dependable, reliable income, particularly during the COVID-19 crisis. Five REITs cut their dividends in 2019: Medalist Diversified REIT … Read more

REITs May Continue to Face Pressure

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Image: The Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most powerful financial tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based and forward looking. Since its creation in 2012, the Dividend Cushion ratio has forewarned readers of approximately 50 dividend cuts. We estimate its efficacy at ~90%. By Brian Nelson, CFA Times are tough for equity REITs (VNQ) and mortgage REITs (REM), with the VNQ and REM down 25% and 30%, respectively, so far in 2022. This is against a backdrop of Valuentum’s simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio and High Yield Dividend Newsletter portfolio that are doing far better. The lesson in 2022, … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of December 22

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending December 22. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          BDO Unibank, Inc. (BDOUY): now $0.0852 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.0847. Beaver Coal Company (BVERS): now $115.00 per share quarterly dividend, was $90.00. Big Banc Split Corp. (TSX:BNK:CA): now CAD 0.12 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.0662. Britvic plc (BTVCY): now $0.5477 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.1830. Calvin B. Taylor Bankshares (TYCB): now $0.40 per share special dividend, was $0.34. China … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of May 10

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending May 10. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          ADENTRA (HDIUF): now CAD 0.14 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.13. Admiral Group plc (AMIGY): now $0.61 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.16. AerCap (AER): now $0.25 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.24. Allianz (ALIZY): now $1.053 per share annual dividend, was $0.873. Annaly Capital Management, Inc. PFD SER G (NLY.PR.G): now $0.6287 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.6181. ANTA Sports Products Limited … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of August 9

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending August 9. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          American States Water (AWR): now $0.4655 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.4300. AngloGold Ashanti (AU): now $0.22 per share interim dividend, was $0.19. Annaly Capital Management, Inc. PFD STK I 6.75% (NLY.PR.I): now $0.6761 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.4219. Ashtead Group plc (ASHTY): now $3.52 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.58. Atlas Energy Solution (AESI): now $0.23 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of November 15

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending November 15. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Aker BP ASA (AKRBY): now $0.3003 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.1752. Amkor Technology (AMKR): now $0.0827 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.0788. ArcelorMittal S.A. (AMSYF): now $0.25 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.22. Australia and New Zealand Banking (ANZGY): now $0.5487 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.2635. Autoliv (ALV): now $0.70 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.68. Equity Commonwealth (EQC): now $19.00 per … Read more