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In the News: Facebook Optimistic, Visa Resilient, Dollar General’s Outlook Not Bad and More

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By Brian Nelson, CFA As the world continues to heal from the coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic, the pace of news has not slowed. The S&P 500 (SPY) is now trading above/near the high end of our fair value estimate range, so we expect some profit taking to ensue in the coming months. The Reddit and meme-stock short-squeezes (with GameStop (GME) as their poster child) have only raised awareness of the hazards and systemic risks of price-agnostic trading and its potential impact on market health. Democrats have called on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to regulate the “gamification” of investing apps, and we hope that such regulation and oversight eventually advances to other questionable areas, including variants of quant and index … Read more

PayPal Expects to Double Its Annual Free Cash Flows By 2025

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Image Shown: PayPal Holdings Inc views its total addressable market across the payment processing and solutions sitting at approximately $110 trillion, an enormous opportunity that the firm is well-positioned to capitalize on. Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc – 2021 Investor Day Presentation By Callum Turcan We continue to be huge fans of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and include shares of PYPL as a top-weighted idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. As of this writing, shares of PYPL have surged higher by ~140% over the past year as the company’s business model has proven to be incredibly resilient in the face of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. PayPal’s ability to generate meaningful free cash flows in almost any environment is supported … Read more

Free Cash Flow Machine Visa Remains One of Our Best Ideas

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Image Shown: Visa’s ability to generate sizable free cash flows continues to impress. We are big fans of the payment processing giant. Image Source: Visa Inc – First Quarter of Fiscal 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan We’re huge fans of Visa Inc’s (V) business model. The credit card network’s free cash flow generating abilities are impressive, aided by its low capital expenditure requirements. We view Visa’s long-term outlook quite favorably and include the company in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio as a top-weighted idea. The top end of our fair value estimate sits at $263 per share of Visa, materially above where V is trading at as of this writing. Overview Visa benefits from the network effect, which … Read more

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios

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January 27, 2021 ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios We are raising the cash position in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. You can read the 2020 recap here. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we’re raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially … Read more

ALERT: We’re Still Bullish! Some Portfolio Tweaks

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By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everybody: Trust you’re doing great, and hope you are enjoying your membership to Valuentum! We’ve received a number of questions from members during the past several weeks, and we’d like to address them briefly in this note. We will write a follow-up note in the coming days that goes into our broader outlook for 2021 and beyond. However, we want to get these takeaways to you as soon as possible, as our inboxes have been overflowing. For starters, if you haven’t read our market/analysis recap for the year 2020, please do so, “2020 Won’t Soon Be Forgotten.” Now on to the questions. First question: Is the stock market in a bubble? Answer: Absolutely not. We … Read more

Recent Data Indicates US Consumer Spending Holding Up Well, Online Sales Surging

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Image Shown: As of this writing, the S&P 500 (SPY) appears ready to end 2020 on a high note, supported by the resilience of the US consumer. By Callum Turcan The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic accelerated the shift towards e-commerce, and that change has long legs. Retailers that previously invested in their digital operations and omni-channel sales capabilities were able to capitalize on this shift while those that relied heavily on foot traffic were hurt badly. Numerous retailers went under in 2020 including J.C. Penney Company Inc (JCPNQ) and Neiman Marcus. Holiday season shopping data indicates that US consumer spending was frontloaded and grew modestly in 2020, aided by surging e-commerce sales, which advanced nearly 50% on a year-over-year basis. … Read more

Congress Seeks to Strike a Deal

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Image Shown: The S&P 500 (SPY) is trading near all-time highs as of December 16, but political risk could cause some choppiness in the near term. The potential for yet another government shutdown is upon us, but according to key leaders on both sides of the aisle, a deal appears to be within reach. Certain provisions may be left out in order to reach an accord sooner rather than later, however. In any case, we remain bullish long term, as the world continues to work to put the COVID-19 pandemic behind it. By Callum Turcan and Brian Nelson, CFA Funding for most US federal government agencies may run out by the end of this week if both sides of the … Read more

Visa Is a Great Company

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Image Shown: Visa Inc’s operations are on the rebound, though meaningful headwinds remain. Image Source: Visa Inc – Fourth Quarter and Full-Year Earnings for Fiscal 2020 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan We have been big fans of Visa Inc (V) for a long time and continue to include shares of V in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio as a top-weighted holding. Visa reported its fourth quarter and full-year earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended September 30, 2020) in late October, which as expected saw the firm’s financial performance face significant headwinds due to the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. However, Visa’s outlook has improved tremendously during the past month as it appears there is a good chance that a safe and viable … Read more

Another Great Day for Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio Holdings!

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Image: The holdings in the Best Ideas Newsletter during the trading session November 5. We continue to pound the table on our best ideas. By Brian Nelson, CFA The votes keep coming in for the Presidential Election of 2020, and it is a very high probability that Democratic nominee Joe Biden will become the next President of the United States. We don’t expect incumbent Donald Trump to go down without a fight however, and while we anticipate a bunch of news headlines in the coming weeks about recounts in battleground states, accusations of voter fraud, and the like, we also expect a peaceful transition of power once the dust settles. With many news outlets projecting Joe Biden will win the key … Read more