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There Is Milk At The Store

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This article first appeared in the September edition of the High Yield Dividend Newsletter. For more information about this publication, please see here. “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” — Winston Churchill By Brian Nelson, CFA Very few of us could have imagined that we’d witness the bull market that began on that fateful day in March 2009 that might very well mark a generational low. In 2009, major investment banks around the globe were struggling to survive, and the fallout in the mortgage markets left the banks holding paper that nobody wanted to own, let alone buy. The global financial system … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending October 21

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending October 21. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Accenture (ACN): now $1.21 per share semi-annual dividend, was $1.10. Amphenol (APH): now $0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.14. AptarGroup (ATR): now $0.32 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.30. AVX (AVX): now $0.11 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.10. Bank First National (BFNC): now $0.16 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Brunswick Corp (BC): now $0.17 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.15. Capital Bank Financial … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending October 20

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending October 20. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week 1st Source (SRCE): now $0.20 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.19. Accenture (ACN): now $1.33 per share semi-annual dividend, was $1.21. AltaGas (ATGFF): now CAD 0.1825 per share monthly dividend, was CAD 0.175. Avianca (AVH): now $0.097 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.091. AVX (AVX): now $0.115 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.11. Canadian Banc Corp (CNDCF): now CAD 0.10883 per share monthly dividend, was CAD … Read more

Top-Weighted Visa Leaps to Mid-$160s, More Earnings Reports

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Top-Weighted Visa Leaps to Mid-$160s, More Reports Image: Visa (V) has been the top-weighted idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter for as long as we can remember. In December 2017, when we migrated to weighting ranges for ideas in the newsletter portfolio, the company’s “weight” was 8.6%. The image above shows its performance relative to the S&P 500 (SPY) since then. Source (pdf). — In alphabetical order by ticker symbol: GOOG, LLY, GE, GM, IR, LL, MA, MCD, MRK, PFE, TXRH, WDC — Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL): Shares of Alphabet, the parent of Google, reported first-quarter performance April 29 that may have revealed weakness in the revenue story at the search giant. The miss was rather large on the top line during the quarter, but … Read more

PayPal and Visa Expand Partnership

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Image Shown: Shares of Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio holding PayPal Holdings Inc have surged higher this year. We continue to be big fans of the company. By Callum Turcan The payment processing and payment solution space is incredibly attractive given the secular growth tailwinds supporting companies operating in the financial tech industry. As consumers are increasingly using cards and digitally-oriented payment services during the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, demand for the various “cash-less” payment options offered by PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) is on the rise. Please note that rising demand for payment processing, cross-border transactions, and similar services is increasing from both consumers and businesses alike. This is more than just a short-term adjustment to cope … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of November 1

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending November 1. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          AbbVie (ABBV): now $1.64 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.55. Adecoagro (AGRO): now $0.174 per share semi-annual dividend, was $0.168. Amcor (AMCR): now $0.1275 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.1250. Associated Banc-Corp (ASB): now $0.23 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.22. Atlas Energy Solution (AESI): now $0.24 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.23. Balfour Beatty plc (BLFBY): now $0.0803 per share semi-annual dividend. Banco … Read more

Economic Roundtable: Quant Quake, Quac-cidental Correlation

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Image Source: Anders Sandberg.  Last week, the markets may have revealed that internals aren’t all that healthy. Major equity markets experienced a “rotation” that reminded many investors of the “quant quake” from August 2007. As Valuentum’s Brian Nelson wrote in Value Trap, “just a few bad days in the market caused a rapid unwinding of many quant long-short strategies (back then). Goldman’s chief financial officer said at the time that the firm was witnessing ‘25-standard deviation moves, several days in a row.’” On the surface, markets last week seemed relatively calm, but as the episode in 2007 revealed the activity last week may just be the calm before the storm. Many are pointing to overcrowded trades in betting against certain … Read more

Earnings Roundup: Chipotle, PayPal, Qualcomm

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Image Shown: PayPal Holdings Inc, a top-weighted idea in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, continued to grow at a brisk pace during the final quarter of 2020. Image Source: PayPal Holdings Inc – Fourth Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan In alphabetical order by ticker: CMG, PYPL, QCOM Several of the newsletter portfolio ideas recently reported earnings, and we are quite pleased with the performance that our favorite ideas have put up so far this earnings season (more on that here). Though the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic created significant headwinds for the three companies we cover in this article, each firm remained incredibly free cash flow positive, highlighting the resilience of their business models. Looking ahead, the … Read more

Nelson on Bogle, Part I

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“The kind of commentary that makes broad generalizations about expectations of future returns is exactly why people are so eager to get into passive investment strategies. Since the 1920s, it seems as though the individual investor has assumed the stock market was rigged or impossible for average Joes to figure out, but instead of the “I’ll get it next time” mentality that was present leading to the crash of ’29, individual investors have “evolved” to the point that now the idea is if you can’t beat the market, just buy the whole thing. Leaders like Bogle continue to take tremendous shortcuts in explaining forecasts, leaving the average investor like a student trying to copy math homework off a peer that … Read more

The “Hierarchy” of Valuentum Idea Generation

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Let’s talk about this hierarchy of idea generation in this note. —  A version of this article was sent to members previously. New content has been added.  — Note: We continue to work to optimize the signal-to-noise ratio in our work, and we are evaluating expanding our update cycle to half-year periods to better bolster the signaling aspects of the Valuentum Buying Index (VBI). In our widely-read case study (see here), the VBI showed its ability to rank equity returns over a forward 12-month period, and we think a migration to less-frequent updating may make the most sense to better capture the forward-looking dynamics of the system. We think this will help weed out false breakouts and other noise that could be harmful. You shouldn’t think of … Read more