TXRH

Mortgage REITs Floundering, More Reports

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In alphabetical order by company name: NLY, CAKE, CLX, CVS, EL, PBI, PSA, QCOM, O, SMG  — Annaly Capital (NLY): We’ve been warning about the mortgage REITs (REM) for as long as we can remember, and we just issued yet another warning recently about the sustainability of group’s dividends. These equities are high-risk, and they’ve been underperformers for years. On May 1, Annaly Capital pre-announced a dividend cut to $0.25 per share, down from $0.30 per share previously. Economic leverage at the mREIT was 7x at the end of the quarter, and mortgage market dynamics remain as difficult to predict as ever. CEO Kevin Keyes characterized the current environment as one hindered by a “flattening yield curve and compressed spreads.” Buyer … Read more

Recent Dividend News Across our Coverage Universe

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Let’s take a look at some of the most recent dividend-related news among companies within our coverage universe. By Kris Rosemann Valuentum members are familiar with our forward-looking, cash-flow based dividend analysis, which culminates in the Dividend Cushion ratio, and the measure has built an impressive track record of highlighting risks in dividend health across a large number of equities. We would be remiss if we did not once again highlight the efficacy of the Dividend Cushion ratio as the metric caught both of Owens & Minor’s (OMI) recent dividend cuts. The company’s Dividend Cushion ratio was firmly in negative territory prior to the announcement of both reductions in the payout. Investors seeking more background reading on the Dividend Cushion … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

Comps Accelerate and Margins Expand in Chipotle’s Third Quarter

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Image Source: Mike Mozart The once beaten down fast casual restaurant chain Chipotle is back to delivering solid comparable restaurant sales growth thanks to menu price increases, and restaurant level operating margin expanded significantly as lower marketing and promotional spending was required to appease cautious consumers. By Kris Rosemann Simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea Chipotle (CMG) reported 8.6% year-over-year revenue growth in the third quarter of 2018, results released October 25, driven by new store openings and a 4.4% increase in comparable restaurant sales. Average check moved higher from the year-ago period due in part to a 3.8% effective menu price increase but was partially offset by a 1.1% decline in comparable restaurant transactions. This weakness in traffic was … Read more

In The News: 10-Year Treasury Yield, Wage Pressure in Restaurants, Cannabis Volatility

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Let’s take a look at some of the hottest topics around the markets. By Kris Rosemann Financial stocks (XLF) rallied during the trading session September 19 as the 10-year US Treasury yield crossed the 3% threshold for the first time since late May 2018 and investors anticipated rising net interest margins for banks. Strong levels of consumer confidence are likely helping the banking sector as well, but we’re watching closely as the Fed continues on its hawkish path with two more rate hikes expected in 2018 after completing seven hikes since December 2015. The potential for an inverted yield curve cannot be ruled out, but some observers are expecting a continued rise in the 10-year Treasury yield through the end … Read more

Oracle Gobbling Up Its Shares; Cracker Barrel Hit By Weak Traffic

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Image Source: Mike Mozart Simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio ideas Oracle and Cracker Barrel both issued less than compelling forward-looking guidance in their most recent fiscal quarter reports. Oracle continues to throw off robust levels of free cash flow that is being used to fund significant levels of share buybacks, but Cracker Barrel may be forced to stop serving up special dividends that have become common in recent years. By Kris Rosemann Oracle Throwing off Free Cash Flow, Gobbling Up Shares Simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio idea Oracle’s (ORCL) fiscal first quarter report, released September 17, was met with a mixed reaction as management’s guidance for its fiscal second quarter left a bit to be desired. Total revenue grew 2% … Read more

Valuentum’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Distribution

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The weighted average cost of capital is one of the most subjective measures in corporate finance, but it is also one of the most important ones. “The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates…If interest rates are destined to be at low levels…It makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money. The bogey is always what government bonds yield….Any investment is worth all the cash you’re going to get out between now and judgment day discounted back. The discounting back is affected by whether you choose interests rates like those of Japan or interest rates like those we had in 1982…When we had 15 percent short-term rates in 1982, it was silly to pay … Read more

Restaurant Traffic Down, Chipotle Still a Favorite Idea

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Image Source: Chipotle (page 89 of 160) In late April of this year, we added Chipotle to the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Brian Nelson, CFA We like Chipotle (CMG) for three primary reasons: 1) in CEO Brian Niccol, the company has a new bold visionary at the helm and he is hiring top talent to fill gaps, 2) buyouts in the restaurant space will only offer support for shares as the fast-casual segment remains a key focus area for private equity (here and here), and 3) Chipotle has been plagued with so many health issues (“foodborne illnesses”) in the past that, even with the recent bounce in shares, the market’s expectations are still rather low. Though our fair value … Read more

Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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To read the study, please click on the image to download the pdf document (pdf).