TEVA

Avoiding Troubled Equities Such as General Electric

by

The Valuentum process waits for a stock’s price to be moving higher before it is considered. The stock must not only be undervalued on both a discounted cash-flow basis and relative value basis, in our view, but the market must also believe that its true intrinsic value should be higher, too, as evidenced by a rising share price. The process is symmetrical. We also would wait for a company’s share price to break down before we may consider removing an overpriced stock. In some cases, the information contained in prices can even provide clues when to remove an underpriced stock, as in the case of General Electric. By Brian Nelson, CFA There should be no confusion. General Electric (GE) was … Read more

The “Luck” and “Randomness” of Index Funds

by

Please select the image below to download the document. Image shown, page 1 of 14. Tickerized for Valuentum’s coverage universe.

Hanesbrands Leaps, IBM Falters and More

by

We were pleased to see the recent performance of Hanesbrands, and we continue to think IBM is not yet out of the woods, despite some life with respect to revenue trends. Let’s cover this and more. By Kris Rosemann There are a lot of things happening in the markets these days. For starters, growth in the world’s second-largest economy accelerated for the first time in seven years as China’s reported growth of 6.9% in 2017 was slightly higher than the 6.7% it achieved in 2016 and the projected growth rate for 2017 of ~6.5%. However, many observers are anticipating a return to the slowing trends of years past as the Chinese government works to reduce risky lending in areas such … Read more

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

by

President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

Strategy Versus Tactics in the Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio

by

Image Source: fauxto_digit We made a few tactical tweaks to the Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio during 2017. Let’s walk through them, and how we’re out to win the war, not win every battle. < Note: The introduction is the same as that of the tactical analysis of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. If you have already read through the introduction, please proceed to the section, Dividend Growth Newsletter Portfolio below. > By Brian Nelson, CFA I’m not going to reference The Art of War written by Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu some time in the 5th century, nor am I going to use any quotes from the military treatise (I think it’s too well-traveled of a topic), but I do … Read more

Strategy Versus Tactics in the Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

by

Image Source: Anna & Michal We made a few tactical tweaks to the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio during 2017. Let’s walk through them, and how we’re out to win the war, not win every battle. By Brian Nelson, CFA I’m not going to reference The Art of War written by Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu some time in the 5th century, nor am I going to use any quotes from the military treatise (I think it’s too well-traveled of a topic), but I do believe the approach to portfolio management is much like that of a general on a path to win the war. Now, don’t get me confused: I’m not saying that portfolio management is actually like being in … Read more

How Have Our “Best Ideas” Performed During 2017?

by

The top-weighted ideas are getting the job done, while we avoided one of the biggest missteps in all of 2017. We’ve had better years, but 2017 was still a great one. Key takeaways: 1) “The top-weighted ideas in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Apple and Visa, performed wonderfully from the release of the December 2016 newsletter through November 13, 2017, averaging more than an increase of 45%, excluding dividends, versus a mid-teens percentage advance for the S&P 500, excluding dividends.” 2) “The weighting concept within a portfolio context is an important one because, as a portfolio manager adds more and more ideas to the portfolio, the next best idea is just that–the next best one–so the probability of diluting portfolio … Read more

Restasis Patent Protection Weighing on Shares of Allergan

by

We have witnessed numerous examples over the years of biotech/pharma companies selling-off over fears of the length of patent protection on an essential product. The concern is well-founded–if the company relies on the product for a significant portion of sales, it may be challenging to replace, especially if the clinical pipeline is relatively bereft of viable next-generation products. We believe the recent sell-off in the shares of Allergan may now be wholly factoring in the loss of patent protection of one of its core assets in Restasis, and the equity may not be getting enough credit for its highly diversified revenue stream. By Alexander J. Poulos and Kris Rosemann Overview Allergan (AGN) in its current configuration is an amalgamation of … Read more

The Asset Sales at Teva Have Begun

by

Image Source: Teva We continue to watch the implosion of Teva with some interest; the company was once a Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio idea thanks to its strong ability to generate a copious amount of free cash flow. However, Teva made the classic mistake of purchasing a company that operates in a highly-commoditized industry at a market top while loading up the balance sheet with an enormous amount of debt at the precise time the favorable industry dynamics began transitioning to a headwind. Let’s review the company’s progress for signs of a turnaround. By Alexander J. Poulos Management Shakeup Corporate leadership remains a challenging field where a critical misstep can often end a once-promising career. The management team of Teva … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week Ending August 25

by

Below we provide a list of firms that raised/lowered their dividends during the week ending August 25. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week Altria (MO): now $0.66 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.61. Canadian Imperial Bank (CM): now CAD 1.30 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 1.27. Capital City Bank (CCBG): now $0.07 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.05. Cross Timbers Royalty Trust (CRT): now $0.092836 per share monthly dividend, was $0.077397. Expedia (EXPE): now $0.30 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.28. First Capital (FCAP): now $0.22 per share … Read more