PSMT

Gap Buys Itself Some Time

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Image Shown: An overview of Gap Inc’s net sales by brand. Image Source: Gap Inc – First Quarter Fiscal 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On June 4, Gap Inc (GPS) reported first quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 2, 2020) that missed both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Shares of GPS have gotten crushed due to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic as consumers (particularly those in the US) have spent far less on discretionary goods (like apparel) over the past several months. Combined with the negative impact of physical store closures and the lack of a meaningful online presence, Gap shares sank as its outlook turned dire. Though Gap operates stores in over 40 countries, please note … Read more

Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks

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Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks Image: The NASDAQ 100 Index remains resilient, bouncing off support, after breaking out to new highs recently. Some of our best ideas are included in the NASDAQ 100, and our favorite concentrations include exposure to big cap tech and large cap growth. We continue to be bullish on equities for the long run. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Hi everyone, — Hope you are doing great! First, I wanted to let you know that we’re still working to get the second release of the survey out to you. Your participation in the survey will determine whether we launch a new business, so please do fill it out and keep a watchful eye out for … Read more

ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected

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ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected Image: The market’s levels of volatility so far in 2020 have been among the greatest in history. Expectations for increased volatility in the marketplace as a result of the proliferation of price-agnostic trading (indexing and quantitative trading) is a key theme of Valuentum’s text, Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. We continue to emphasize the importance of due diligence, enterprise valuation, behavioral thinking, the information contained in prices, and stock selection across equity portfolios. Page 256. — Hi everyone, — Hope you all are doing great!  — Many of you have already filled out the survey, and I can’t thank you enough for that. For those that may have missed the email housing … Read more

*ALERT* Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes

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*ALERT* Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes Image: Why are stock prices increasing while the near-term economy and near-term earnings outlook isn’t as bright as before…How unlimited quantitative easing, runaway government spending, increased inflation expectations impact equity values…Why this year’s earnings expectations or next year’s earnings expectations don’t matter much…Why Valuentum thinks equity values are rising today, even as the near-term outlook remains unclear. Scribbles on page 76 of Value Trap. — “I know it sounds crazy to say so during a global pandemic and during a recession, but the right multiple and the right earnings to use to value this market is an 18-20x multiple on $196 earnings, putting a fair value range on the S&P 500 today of 3,530-3,920. The … Read more

Data from Visa Indicates the Economic Outlook is Improving

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Image Shown: Visa Inc reports that US processed transactions volumes across its payment processing network improved materially on a year-over-year basis in May, relatively speaking, versus the downturn seen in the second half of March and the first half of April. Image Source: Visa Inc – 8-K SEC Filing By Callum Turcan One of our favorite secular growth industry tailwinds is happening in the payment processing, payment solutions, and financial technology space. The world is shifting toward a “cashless” society, and that has accelerated due to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic, in part due to the rise of e-commerce and in part due to the preference of many consumers to use contactless payment options when in physical stores. Visa Inc … Read more

Valuentum Research Update

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— Valuentum Research Update — Hi everyone! — Hope you all are doing great! I must say I couldn’t be more pleased with the research we’ve been putting out, and thank you very much for your continued interest. In this piece, I wanted to get some of our latest work to you.  — First, please note that we’ve done a great job holding the line on many of our fair value estimates (ranges) on our website. Many stocks have been bouncing back, and we’re glad we didn’t rush through any updates. Updating fair value estimates (ranges) too frequently doesn’t make much sense to us. We’re after the right answer, not any answer.  — Second, our team has been busy writing up some very … Read more

Macy’s Secures Additional Financing

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Image Shown: Shares of Macy’s Inc have started to recover some of their lost ground after the company secured additional financing to ride out the storm created by the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Store closures have decimated the company’s bottom-line, but the reopening of the US economy and many of the retailer’s stores has improved Macy’s outlook. By Callum Turcan Back on April 21, 2020, we published a note on Valuentum (link here) highlighting why it would be hard for Macy’s Inc (M) to unlock the (fair) value of its real estate assets. We are following up on that piece given recent events that we will cover in this article, and we strongly encourage our members to check out that … Read more

ICYMI — Stay Optimistic. Stay Bullish. I Am.

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  Image: My great-grandfather (second from left) and his buddies in the 88th Division of the United States Army during World War I, at the time of the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-1919. He would serve under Major General William Weigel, become proficient in the 37mm gun, and take part in the largest offensive in U.S. military history, the Meuse-Argonne Campaign. As a corporal, he would survive the Great War and the Spanish flu pandemic, returning to the U.S. in May 1919 from the port of Saint-Nazaire, France on his way to Omaha, Nebraska.  This article was published May 15, 2020. — New (updated June 4): We continue to encourage members to study the ‘Duration of (Stock) Value Composition’ in Value Trap: Theory of … Read more

Campbell Soup Sees Its Sales Surge

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Image Source: Campbell Soup Company – Third Quarter of Fiscal 2020 Earnings IR Presentation By Callum Turcan On June 3, 2020, Campbell Soup Company (CPB) reported third quarter earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended April 26, 2020) and raised guidance for the full fiscal year to reflect the surge in demand for consumer staples goods due to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. The firm beat consensus bottom-line estimates but missed consensus top-line estimates. Campbell’s net organic sales (a non-GAAP figure) jumped up by 17% year-over-year (GAAP revenues were up by 15%) and its adjusted diluted EPS (a non-GAAP figure) climbed higher by 57% year-over-year (GAAP diluted EPS was up 34%). Quarterly Update Sales of its ‘meals and beverages’ products rose … Read more

Dow Jones Surges Past 27,000; Bull Market Continues!

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Dow Jones Surges Past 27,000; Bull Market Continues! — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Hi everyone! — What a bull market off the lows we are having. I don’t think we’re finished, as I have pounded the table time and time and time again about how bullish I am. In the words of Frank Sinatra, “The Best Is Yet to Come,” and I truly believe that. Yesterday, I explained to readers why we’re seeing this huge rally, “Stay Optimistic. Stay Bullish. I Am.”  — If you understand the duration and composition of equity value (page 74-83 in Value Trap), you can start focusing on what drives share prices and returns. How else could a market rally this much with 13% unemployment, right? How wonderful it … Read more