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ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline

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ICYMI — Video: Exclusive 2020 — Furthering the Financial Discipline — — In this 40+ minute video jam-packed with must-watch content, Valuentum’s President Brian Nelson talks about the Theory of Universal Valuation and how his work is furthering the financial discipline. Learn the pitfalls of factor investing and modern portfolio theory and how the efficient markets hypothesis holds little substance in the wake of COVID-19. He’ll talk about which companies Valuentum likes and why, and which areas he’s avoiding. This and more in Valuentum’s 2020 Exclusive conference call.   Note: This video was originally published August 2, 2020.    To watch the video >>   The Theory of Universal Valuation —– Valuentum members have access to our 16-page stock reports, … Read more

Dividend Growth Opportunity Home Depot Posts a Solid Earnings Report

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Image Source: Home Depot Inc – First Quarter of Fiscal 2021 Earnings Press Release By Callum Turcan New home construction activity along with do-it-yourself (‘DIY’) and do-it-for-me (‘DIFM’) activities remains robust in the US, which is great news for Home Depot Inc (HD). On May 18, Home Depot reported first quarter fiscal 2021 earnings (period ended May 2, 2021) that beat both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. Home Depot’s GAAP revenues rose by 33% year-over-year and its GAAP operating income grew by 76% year-over-year as the home improvement and construction retailer reported strong demand from both its professional and retail customer base. We are huge fans of Home Depot and include the company as an idea in our Dividend Growth … Read more

Home Depot Shows the Home Has Never Been More Important

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Image Source: Home Depot. By Brian Nelson, CFA On Tuesday, February 23, Home Depot (HD) reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results (period ending January 31, 2021) that came in better than consensus estimates across the board. Not only did the top- and bottom- lines beat, but comparable store sales growth of 24.5% exceeded even some of the most optimistic forecasts for the home improvement retailer during the period. The average ticket price and the number of transactions advanced, while both professional (“Pro”) and Do-It-Yourself (“DIY”) customer revenue increased at a double-digit pace in the quarter. Home Depot also raised its dividend 10% and now yields ~2.5% on a forward-looking basis ($6.60 per-share dividend on an annualized basis). We continue to like … Read more

Zillow Continues to Disrupt Real Estate Market

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Image Source: Zillow Group Inc – May 2020 IR Presentation By Callum Turcan Record low interest rates for mortgages in the US, largely a product of the Fed’s monetary stimulus measures (quantitative easing and near-zero interest rates), has gone a long way in stimulating demand for homes. According to the US Census Bureau, the national homeownership rate stood at 67.4% in the second quarter of 2020, up ~260 basis points from the same period the prior year. For reference, the domestic homeownership rate has been steadily climbing higher since 2015-2016 (when homeownership rates were in the low-60s% range) according to data provided by the US Census Bureau. Homeownership rates peaked in 2005-2006 at the high-60s% level before sliding significantly lower … Read more

News Brief: Stay at Home Stocks, REITs, Housing, Oracle, and AT&T

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Image: Number of COVID-19 cases reported weekly by WHO Region, and global deaths, 30 December 2019 through 18 October 2020. Source: WHO. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage on, though the healthcare community has become more adept at reducing the incidence of death given the many treatments now available to battle the disease. We continue to stay the course with the newsletter portfolios. Many of our favorites include Apple, Microsoft, Facebook, Alphabet, and PayPal, among other moaty, net-cash-rich, free-cash-flow generating powerhouses tied to secular growth trends. Our focus remains on the long haul. The business models of many stay-at-home stocks are solid as they continue to reap the rewards of the accelerated trends of home office use and e-commerce proliferation. … Read more

Valuentum Website Overview

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Overview of the key features of valuentum.com/ (03:55). Valuentum (val∙u∙n∙tum) [val-yoo-en-tuh-m] Securities Inc. is an independent investment research publisher, offering premium equity reports, dividend reports, and ETF reports, as well as commentary across all sectors/companies, a Best Ideas Newsletter (spanning market caps, asset classes), a Dividend Growth Newsletter, modeling tools/products, and more. Independence and integrity remain our core, and we strive to be a champion of the investor. Valuentum is based in the Chicagoland area. Valuentum is not a money manager, broker, or financial advisor. Valuentum is a publisher of financial information. The Benefits of Premium Membership >> Subscribe Now!

Earnings Brief: BOX, CRM, WMT, TOL, HD/LOW

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Image Source: Toll Brothers. Iron Oak at Alamo Creek, Danville, CA.  By Brian Nelson, CFA Let’s cover some trends that may emerge out of the COVID-19 pandemic, including accelerated e-commerce proliferation and its impact on brick-and-mortar giants, as well as an increased likelihood of suburban sprawl that may propel some names while leaving others behind. Box, Inc. According to its website, Box (BOX) is “a leading Cloud Content Management platform that enables organizations to accelerate business processes, power workplace collaboration, and protect their most valuable information, all while working with a best-of-breed enterprise IT stack.” The company’s balance sheet isn’t as clean as we would like given its operating lease liabilities, but it does hold more than $270 million in cash … Read more

Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks

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Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks Image: The NASDAQ 100 Index remains resilient, bouncing off support, after breaking out to new highs recently. Some of our best ideas are included in the NASDAQ 100, and our favorite concentrations include exposure to big cap tech and large cap growth. We continue to be bullish on equities for the long run. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Hi everyone, — Hope you are doing great! First, I wanted to let you know that we’re still working to get the second release of the survey out to you. Your participation in the survey will determine whether we launch a new business, so please do fill it out and keep a watchful eye out for … Read more

ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected

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ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected Image: The market’s levels of volatility so far in 2020 have been among the greatest in history. Expectations for increased volatility in the marketplace as a result of the proliferation of price-agnostic trading (indexing and quantitative trading) is a key theme of Valuentum’s text, Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. We continue to emphasize the importance of due diligence, enterprise valuation, behavioral thinking, the information contained in prices, and stock selection across equity portfolios. Page 256. — Hi everyone, — Hope you all are doing great!  — Many of you have already filled out the survey, and I can’t thank you enough for that. For those that may have missed the email housing … Read more

*ALERT* Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes

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*ALERT* Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes Image: Why are stock prices increasing while the near-term economy and near-term earnings outlook isn’t as bright as before…How unlimited quantitative easing, runaway government spending, increased inflation expectations impact equity values…Why this year’s earnings expectations or next year’s earnings expectations don’t matter much…Why Valuentum thinks equity values are rising today, even as the near-term outlook remains unclear. Scribbles on page 76 of Value Trap. — “I know it sounds crazy to say so during a global pandemic and during a recession, but the right multiple and the right earnings to use to value this market is an 18-20x multiple on $196 earnings, putting a fair value range on the S&P 500 today of 3,530-3,920. The … Read more