NKE

Dick’s Sporting Goods Finds E-Commerce Success

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Image Shown: Shares of Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc rallied by ~16% during normal trading hours on August 26 after reporting stellar same-store sales growth. By Callum Turcan On August 26, Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc (DKS) reported second quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended August 1, 2020) that beat consensus estimates on both the top- and bottom-lines. Driving this outperformance was Dick’s Sporting Goods’ 20.7% year-over-year increase in same-store sales as its e-commerce sales rose by 194%, which includes sales conducted through its curbside contactless pickup option. E-commerce sales represented ~30% of the sporting goods retailer’s total sales last fiscal quarter. Average ticket sizes and the number of transactions both grew last fiscal quarter according to management commentary included in the … Read more

L Brands Beats Low Expectations

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Image Shown: Though shares of L Brands Inc are up year-to-date, they remain down significantly over the past five years as of this writing (before taking dividend considerations into account). By Callum Turcan The owner of the Victoria’s Secret, PINK, and Bath & Body Works retail brands L Brands Inc (LB) reported second quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended August 1, 2020) on August 19 that smashed past both consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. However, those estimates were a low bar to beat as analysts had already factored in the significant headwinds the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic created for its business. Last fiscal quarter, L Brands reopened most of its stores and leaned on e-commerce sales channels to meet customer demand … Read more

Lululemon Athletica Buys MIRROR

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Image Source: Lululemon Athletica Inc – First Quarter Fiscal 2020 Quarterly Financial Supplements By Callum Turcan On June 29, Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) announced it was acquiring home fitness company MIRROR for $500 million in cash. MIRROR sells ~$1,500 (before taxes and installation fees) screens that come with a camera and speaker system that allow users to participate in at-home workouts assisted by trainers/videos. That offering comes with a $39 per month digital subscription which allows the user (or users, up to six people per household) to access on-demand and live workout sessions, and additionally, personal training sessions cost up to $40 each. Overview Lululemon first invested in MIRROR back in mid-2019 and will run the firm as a standalone … Read more

July Dividend Growth Newsletter

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“The COVID-19 pandemic has all but shown it’s not the economy, or next quarter’s earnings, or last year’s book-to-market ratio or last year’s P/E ratio that drives market prices and returns; it’s enterprise valuation. Read about the duration of value composition in Value Trap.” — Brian Nelson, CFA — To add our new options commentary to your membership, please register here ($500/year). — Hi everyone!  — Trust you are doing great. I thought we could all share in on a little chuckle with this meme of Mr. T. I’ve been working for years and years explaining how important enterprise valuation, or the discounted cash flow process, is to understanding stock market prices and returns, and how most valuation ratios such as the P/E ratio, for example, … Read more

Nike Doubles Down on Its Digital Strategy

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Image Shown: Shares of Nike sold off moderately on June 26 after reporting its full-year earnings for fiscal 2020 (period ended May 31, 2020), though please note shares of NKE have rebounded sharply from their March 2020 lows. Over the past year shares of Nike are still up ~15% as of this writing, outpacing the 4% gain seen at the S&P 500 (SPY) before taking dividend considerations into account. By Callum Turcan Retailers of consumer discretionary products that invested heavily in their digital presence and direct-to-consumer sales/distribution systems before the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic put themselves in a much better position to ride out the storm. Nike Inc (NKE) reported that its digital sales in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020 … Read more

Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks

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Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks Image: The NASDAQ 100 Index remains resilient, bouncing off support, after breaking out to new highs recently. Some of our best ideas are included in the NASDAQ 100, and our favorite concentrations include exposure to big cap tech and large cap growth. We continue to be bullish on equities for the long run. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Hi everyone, — Hope you are doing great! First, I wanted to let you know that we’re still working to get the second release of the survey out to you. Your participation in the survey will determine whether we launch a new business, so please do fill it out and keep a watchful eye out for … Read more

Lululemon Supported by Strong Digital Sales

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Image Source: Lululemon Athletica Inc – Third Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Infographic By Callum Turcan On June 11, Lululemon Athletica Inc (LULU) reported first quarter fiscal 2020 earnings (period ended May 3, 2020) that missed consensus top- and bottom-line estimates. The company’s strong digital sales were offset by the negative impact of containment efforts to stop the spread of coronavirus (‘COVID-19’), namely store closures (both company-owned and third-party retail locations). Shares of LULU are still up comfortably year-to-date as of this writing, in large part due to its pristine balance sheet and past investments in its digital infrastructure and digital sales channels. We covered these two aspects of its business model and why that would be a source of strength … Read more

ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected

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ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected Image: The market’s levels of volatility so far in 2020 have been among the greatest in history. Expectations for increased volatility in the marketplace as a result of the proliferation of price-agnostic trading (indexing and quantitative trading) is a key theme of Valuentum’s text, Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. We continue to emphasize the importance of due diligence, enterprise valuation, behavioral thinking, the information contained in prices, and stock selection across equity portfolios. Page 256. — Hi everyone, — Hope you all are doing great!  — Many of you have already filled out the survey, and I can’t thank you enough for that. For those that may have missed the email housing … Read more

*ALERT* Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes

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*ALERT* Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes Image: Why are stock prices increasing while the near-term economy and near-term earnings outlook isn’t as bright as before…How unlimited quantitative easing, runaway government spending, increased inflation expectations impact equity values…Why this year’s earnings expectations or next year’s earnings expectations don’t matter much…Why Valuentum thinks equity values are rising today, even as the near-term outlook remains unclear. Scribbles on page 76 of Value Trap. — “I know it sounds crazy to say so during a global pandemic and during a recession, but the right multiple and the right earnings to use to value this market is an 18-20x multiple on $196 earnings, putting a fair value range on the S&P 500 today of 3,530-3,920. The … Read more

Valuentum Research Update

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— Valuentum Research Update — Hi everyone! — Hope you all are doing great! I must say I couldn’t be more pleased with the research we’ve been putting out, and thank you very much for your continued interest. In this piece, I wanted to get some of our latest work to you.  — First, please note that we’ve done a great job holding the line on many of our fair value estimates (ranges) on our website. Many stocks have been bouncing back, and we’re glad we didn’t rush through any updates. Updating fair value estimates (ranges) too frequently doesn’t make much sense to us. We’re after the right answer, not any answer.  — Second, our team has been busy writing up some very … Read more