MS

Morgan Stanley Puts up a Tremendous Quarter

by

Morgan Stanley truly shined during this quarter of extreme volatility. While credit provisioning was higher year over year, Morgan Stanley simply does not have many of the credit exposures that are leading to huge multi-billion-dollar credit provisions at some of its money-center banking peers. Though its wealth management business’ net income (applicable to Morgan Stanley) was down 10% year over year, and Investment Management was up only 20%, it was the Institutional Securities stunning 95% advance in net income that made this quarter a (temporary) gem of notable brilliance. By Matthew Warren Morgan Stanley (MS) put up a tremendous quarter July 16, blowing away analyst consensus estimates on both the top and bottom lines. As you can see in the … Read more

Bank of America is Working Through a Difficult Time

by

When putting all the puzzle pieces together, we see Bank of America facing the headwinds of low rates and sizable credit provisioning with relative ease thanks to its substantial pre-tax, pre-provision earnings power. As long as the economy doesn’t get drastically worse from here, long term investors will benefit from normalized valuations on more normalized earnings in the not-too-distant future. By Matthew Warren Bank of America (BAC) posted difficult second quarter results July 16, though it beat analyst consensus estimates on both the top and the bottom lines. As you can see in the upcoming graphic down below, total revenue was down 3% compared to last year while net income was down 52% thanks to substantial provisioning for future credit … Read more

Citigroup Navigating the Banking Downturn Fairly Well

by

All in all, we think Citigroup management is doing a decent job of navigating this economic downturn. The shares trade at a discount to tangible book value. We think a large part of the reason for this is that this is a very complex bank, operating across a wide variety of products and geographies. If the team can make it through this downcycle without any skeletons coming out of the closest, we think the stock has the potential to re-rate higher. By Matthew Warren On July 14, Citigroup (C) posted a difficult second-quarter set of results, though the firm did manage to beat analyst consensus estimates on both the top and bottom lines. Outsize revenue gains in investment banking and … Read more

JPMorgan Reports Second Quarter, Notes Peculiar Times

by

Image Shown: Overview of JPMorgan’s 2Q2020 earnings. Image Source: JPMorgan 2Q2020 Earnings Presentation There was a fair amount of discussion on JPMorgan’s conference call about how the company (and the rest of the banking industry) are taking large provisions now for charge offs that they expect to come in the future. The future and the timing and magnitude of the eventual write-offs are quite murky indeed, which helps explain the volatility of banking shares in general, and especially for those institutions that might fall over in an “adverse scenario.” JPMorgan is not one of those banks that is at risk. It stands on high ground in the industry thanks to its scale, diversification (a huge benefit this quarter), high quality … Read more

Wells Fargo Has Become An “Epic Disappointment”

by

Wells Fargo is so far out of line with its large US banking peers that it is truly competing with one arm tied behind its back. Or perhaps both arms. While some might try to be heroic and bet on a huge turnaround, we think it is more prudent to watch from the sidelines. What an epic disappointment this bank has become, so far a fall from grace as compared to when it used to be regarded as one of the best in class of the biggest US banks. What a shame! By Matthew Warren Wells Fargo (WFC) delivered a stinker of a second quarter July 14, missing on both the top and bottom lines, and cutting the dividend by … Read more

Warren: Four Ways to Play the Market at This Juncture

by

Image Source: Daniel Lobo In this piece, we examine where the economy and stock markets have been recently, where we are now, and where we are going next. We also highlight four key ways to play this volatile market. We think this is a helpful way to think about overall portfolio construction, especially so that one does not overly expose themselves to a particular set of risks that could come to fruition—like an extended downturn in the economy or a rapid discovery of a vaccine for Covid-19 on the other hand. By Matthew Warren Macro Matters When you turn on the television to the stock channel, there is a tremendous amount of discussion about where we are now and where … Read more

Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks

by

Reiterating Our Bullish Long-Term View on Stocks Image: The NASDAQ 100 Index remains resilient, bouncing off support, after breaking out to new highs recently. Some of our best ideas are included in the NASDAQ 100, and our favorite concentrations include exposure to big cap tech and large cap growth. We continue to be bullish on equities for the long run. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Hi everyone, — Hope you are doing great! First, I wanted to let you know that we’re still working to get the second release of the survey out to you. Your participation in the survey will determine whether we launch a new business, so please do fill it out and keep a watchful eye out for … Read more

ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected

by

ICYMI: Survey Coming Later Today, More Market Volatility Expected Image: The market’s levels of volatility so far in 2020 have been among the greatest in history. Expectations for increased volatility in the marketplace as a result of the proliferation of price-agnostic trading (indexing and quantitative trading) is a key theme of Valuentum’s text, Value Trap: Theory of Universal Valuation. We continue to emphasize the importance of due diligence, enterprise valuation, behavioral thinking, the information contained in prices, and stock selection across equity portfolios. Page 256. — Hi everyone, — Hope you all are doing great!  — Many of you have already filled out the survey, and I can’t thank you enough for that. For those that may have missed the email housing … Read more

*ALERT* Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes

by

*ALERT* Scribbles and More Newsletter Portfolio Changes Image: Why are stock prices increasing while the near-term economy and near-term earnings outlook isn’t as bright as before…How unlimited quantitative easing, runaway government spending, increased inflation expectations impact equity values…Why this year’s earnings expectations or next year’s earnings expectations don’t matter much…Why Valuentum thinks equity values are rising today, even as the near-term outlook remains unclear. Scribbles on page 76 of Value Trap. — “I know it sounds crazy to say so during a global pandemic and during a recession, but the right multiple and the right earnings to use to value this market is an 18-20x multiple on $196 earnings, putting a fair value range on the S&P 500 today of 3,530-3,920. The … Read more

Valuentum Research Update

by

— Valuentum Research Update — Hi everyone! — Hope you all are doing great! I must say I couldn’t be more pleased with the research we’ve been putting out, and thank you very much for your continued interest. In this piece, I wanted to get some of our latest work to you.  — First, please note that we’ve done a great job holding the line on many of our fair value estimates (ranges) on our website. Many stocks have been bouncing back, and we’re glad we didn’t rush through any updates. Updating fair value estimates (ranges) too frequently doesn’t make much sense to us. We’re after the right answer, not any answer.  — Second, our team has been busy writing up some very … Read more