JNJ

Our Overview on Merck in Light of Recent Clinical Events

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Clinical data reads can have an outsize impact on the fortunes of the research-based pharma industry, irrespective of the size of the organization. We came away very impressed with the recent release from Merck and felt a timely overview of the various pharmaceutical products developed by the company would be of value to readers. By Alexander J. Poulos Third Quarter Results Image Source: Merck On October 27, Merck (MRK) released its third-quarter results. The results were met with an immediate sell-off in the shares as the pace of the clinical pipeline disappointed. To say the least, we were surprised by the aggressiveness of the sell-off–the catalyst for the leg down in the share price, in our view, is the declaration … Read more

Bioverativ’s Takeout, Visa’s Surge, and General Electric’s Pain

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From Bioverativ’s takeout to Visa’s stock price surge to General Electric’s continued pain, there’s a lot going on in the stock market. Let’s cover some ground. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA It’s hard to believe this but our best idea in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, Visa (V), is now a $124+ per share stock. We know how to pick ‘em, would you say? We don’t get everything correct, of course, but if you’ve read anything on our website, we can only hope that you’ve witnessed Visa’s meteoric rise. The high end of our updated fair value estimate range for Visa is north of $130 per share. What a wild ride it has been, to say the least, … Read more

GlaxoSmithKline: Not All Dividends Are Created Equal

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Many seeking ideas to generate dividend income may be drawn to slow-growing entities with large dividend yields. However, without proper examination of the balance sheet and competitive position, an investor may enter a position banking on a steady dividend stream only to be caught by a sudden cut in the dividend. It is growing increasingly likely that GlaxoSmithKline may be ready to sacrifice the dividend on the altar in the name of additional M&A, in our view. By Alexander J. Poulos GSK Overview GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) remains a venerable European entity with a number of business lines similar to its US rivals such as Pfizer (PFE). At GSK’s core is its heavy reliance on research to bring forth additional novel branded … Read more

The New Theorem of the Stock Market

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about the new theory of the stock market and explains how syllogisms developed by Noble prize winners and the largest asset managers may not accurately reflect active management at the investor level, which Nelson argues is what matters. Running time: ~15 minutes. To view Valuentum’s updated YouTube page, please see here.  Excerpts from Value and Momentum Within Stocks, Too (Valuentum) Read the paper from the beginning here (pdf).   Tickerized for stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Mutual Fund Tragedy, ROE, and the Time Horizon

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Comparisons between growth versus value stocks may never go away, but President of Investment Research Brian Nelson explains why you should know better than to think stocks can easily be divided up as such. He talks about this, as well as the pitfalls of ROE (return on equity) and how to think about the time horizon. Running time: ~10 minutes.

Admit It: You Know Nothing About the Dividend

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson talks about how the concept of a dividend is completely miscontrued due to societal and cultural reasons, but he also explains why he likes dividends. Warning: He’s going to bust out Monopoly pieces. You don’t want to miss this! Running time: ~15 minutes.

I Love Dividends But the Dividend Discount Model is DEAD!

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson gives a plethora of reasons why the dividend discount model is dead and expresses his worries about how it continues to be used academically and professionally. Also included is a discussion about why the weighted average cost of capital, or the WACC, is used in the enterprise free cash flow valuation process, or the free cash flow to the firm process. Running time: ~13 minutes.

Video: Quants! You’re NOT Measuring VALUE and Nelson’s Theory of Universal Value

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President of Investment Research Brian Nelson defines the concept of universal value and shows how quantitative statistical methods are inextricably linked to those of fundamental, financial, business-model related analysis. Value does not exist in respective process vacuums! Value is universal. Find out why. Running time: ~10 minutes.  Tickerized for Valuentum’s stock and ETF coverage universe. Transcript Hi this is Brian Nelson from Valuentum Securities, and this is the tenth edition of a series that I call “Off the Cuff,” where I get in front of the camera and I talk for ten minutes. This is what we have to talk about today. We have to talk about this concept: The Theory of Universal Value. Value does not exist in vacuums … Read more

A “Terrible” Negative Alpha-Generating “Trade” and More

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Let’s walk through some of the news before the Thanksgiving holiday, and one of the bigger missteps we made during 2017. By Brian Nelson, CFA I’d like to run through the news before many of you take a break for the Thanksgiving holiday. Thanks again for your attention. It means the world to our team that you see and understand the things that we’re doing, the great calls we make with our top-weighted ideas (see here and here), the extensive valuation processes we perform with respect to the discounted cash-flow process (see here), and how we provide that in downloadable pdf form (see here) – and we’re here to talk about our expectations! You can get reports from anybody, of … Read more

Valuentum’s “Home Runs” During 2017

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Image Source: Keith Allison By Brian Nelson, CFA We’re doing a lot of things right, but you (yes, you!) mean the world to our team. For best ideas, see the portfolio on page 8 of the Best Ideas Newsletter here (pdf). For best dividend growth ideas, see the portfolio on page 5 of the Dividend Growth Newsletter here (pdf). I want to make sure you have these at your fingertips. We appreciate your business so much! We wrote up an analysis of ideas that were included in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio at the beginning of 2017. The ideas included in these respective portfolios are our best ideas for each respective strategy, with two distinctions … Read more