HMC

Trump “Tweet Storm” Reveals Increased Frustration with Fed, China

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— Markets are starting to look toppy. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — The markets are under heavy pressure Friday, August 23, as China escalated the trade war with new retaliatory tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S. goods (soybeans and autos), including a 5% tariff on U.S. crude oil prices. Removing the Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) from the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio August 14 looks to have been a savvy move. Following the much-anticipated speech from Fed Chairman Powell today, President Trump responded with a series of tweets that showed tremendous frustration with the current situation. Here is the Twitter thread, reproduced below: — As usual, the Fed did NOTHING! It is incredible that they can “speak” without knowing or … Read more

Investors Aren’t Sold on Lear’s Ostensibly “Cheap” Valuation and Neither Are We

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Image Shown: While Lear Corporation appears attractive at first glance, its technical performance tells a different story. The market is concerned that the global synchronized downturn that has emerged will get worse, which would weigh on Lear’s expected financial trajectory. Global automotive sales are already coming under pressure, and there’s not much Lear, as a leading auto parts supplier, can do about that. We think the market might be right on this one. By Callum Turcan On August 16, we updated our reports for the auto parts supplier industry and those updated reports can be accessed here. Lear Corporation (LEA) stood out right away. The company supplies auto parts to customers all around the world, namely electrical power management systems … Read more

How About the New Vette? General Motors Bouncing Back

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Image Source: GM Chevrolet Next-Generation Corvette, 2020 Stingray revealed July 18 Shares of General Motors held up well in an otherwise weak market August 1 after posting a solid second quarter 2019 earnings report. By Callum Turcan A holding in both our Dividend Growth Newsletter and Best Ideas Newsletter portfolios, General Motors (GM) held up well August 1 after reporting a nice earnings beat with revenue coming in-line with consensus analyst estimates. GM’s North America division led the way, aided by its all-new Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra offerings taking market share in the pickup truck market (according to third-party data cited by GM). GAAP revenue declined by 2% year-over-year and non-GAAP adjusted EBIT moved lower by 6%, but GM’s … Read more

Viewing Intrinsic Value as a Range of Outcomes: Tesla’s Margins Come Under Fire in Second Quarter, Shares Sell Off

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By Callum Turcan On July 24, Tesla Inc (TSLA) posted second quarter 2019 earnings that did not go over well with investors. For starters, the electric vehicle maker’s company-wide GAAP gross margin tanked by ~100 basis points while Tesla’s ‘Automotive’ segment’s gross margin came in at 18.9% during the quarter, down ~170 basis points from 20.6% in the same period last year. This is entirely a result of Tesla ramping up production and deliveries of the less profitable Model 3 to meet demand while production and deliveries of its higher margin Model S/X move lower. Shares of TSLA are under considerable pressure as the market adjusted its long-term view of Tesla’s gross margins and ultimately future free cash flows. Here … Read more

Hardcore: Tesla’s Stock May Collapse to Double Digits

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Image: The Valuentum Buying Index almost called the top in Tesla’s shares. Whenever a CEO comes out saying that the company must engage in “hardcore” cost cutting, bad things happen. Morale is likely in the pits at the car company, and cost takeouts will probably cut more than just some excess fat. The downward spiral at Tesla has been in the works for many months now, but the writing is on the wall for a major disappointment that truly resets reality for shareholders. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — I’ve given CEO Elon Musk the benefit of the doubt. As a fellow founder and entrepreneur with skin in the game, I can understand some of the challenges that leaders face. … Read more

Lyft Takes a Fall, S-1 Reads Like Business School Homework

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Image Source: Lyft’s S-1 Reminiscences of the dot-com boom came back to the markets with the over-hyped initial public offering of Lyft, a stock that continues to get shellacked as its first days as a publicly-traded enterprise. Those that know Valuentum know that we wouldn’t touch such investments with a 10-foot pole. The company lost $43 per share in 2018. By Brian Nelson, CFA Call me old school, but I’m surprised as to the widely-accepted nature of the business models of Lyft (LYFT) and Uber, and other ridesharing services. For those that don’t know Lyft, the company maintains “peer-to-peer marketplace for on-demand ridesharing,” and thus far has “facilitated over one billion rides,” according to its S-1 filing. It generates almost … Read more

Big Bank Roundup, Bank of America Catches Our Eye

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In this article, let’s catch up with how far the big 6 banks in the US have come since the height of the financial crisis exactly a decade hence. We will highlight the improvements in the banking system, some of the key risks, and a few high level thoughts about the individual franchises leading the US banking system. We like Bank of America the most, and we include diversified banking exposure in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio. “Both a European bank crisis and/or a Chinese banking and economic crisis would be mutually reinforcing to the downside and a major cause of global deflation.” – Matthew Warren By Matthew Warren When you take a look at the … Read more

In the News: Dividend Growth Still on Hold at General Mills After Strong Quarter, Avoiding FedEx and BMW After Warnings on Bottom-Line Weakness, and a Biogen as a Prime Example of Risks to Avoid in Biotech

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General Mills raised bottom-line and free cash flow conversion expectations for fiscal 2019, but we’re not interested in shares as it continues to prioritize deleveraging over dividend growth in a slow growth environment. International corporations continue to weigh the impact of slowing macroeconomic activity and global trade tensions, as evidenced by FedEx and BMW slashing bottom-line expectations, and shares of Biogen have been rocked by news that it terminated two late-stage studies of a key Alzheimer’s treatment. By Kris Rosemann General Mills Turns in Positive Organic Sales Growth and Operating Margin Expansion Food products giant General Mills (GIS) turned in better-than-expected results in its fiscal 2019 third quarter report, released March 20, as organic sales growth advanced 1% on a … Read more

General Motors Rallies, Tesla and Toyota Improve, Auto Parts Suppliers Getting Squeezed

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Image shown: General Motors may very well be on its way to $50+ per share. We continue to like General Motors, and we think Tesla is getting back on the right track with its financials. Auto parts suppliers have faced their fair share of pressure in recent months as the potential for a slowdown in global light vehicle production rises and input cost inflation also makes its presence felt. By Kris Rosemann and Brian Nelson, CFA On February 6, General Motors (GM) reported fourth-quarter 2018 earnings, and they were quite good. We continue to believe shares of GM are ultra-cheap, as we wrote in: “We Think General Motors Is Poised for New Highs.” The automaker is included as an idea … Read more

Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more