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Valuentum Stock Screeners

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This article was sent to members via email December 29. That email can be accessed at the link that follows this article. By Brian Nelson, CFA Hi everyone, I wanted to provide an update with respect to Valuentum’s stock screeners. We believe our stock screeners are among the most robust when it comes to providing forward-looking data, or data that is important with respect to the investment decision-making process. We publish screens in each of the monthly newsletters, but we also provide a basic weekly screener for download on the left column of the website, “Download Weekly Stock Screener (xls) — login required.”   We also have other products. The more robust DataScreener, for example, is part of the quarterly Financial … Read more

Market Mayhem — Alerts for Members

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During these extremely volatile times, it’s important to stay focused. On December 15, we informed all of our members to “Pay Attention.” Shortly thereafter, we notified members of the potential for a stock market technical breakdown. This morning, we offered a pre-market briefing about the importance of thinking about portfolio protection. For Best Ideas Newsletter and Dividend Growth Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=e2406cd6-c113-4344-8731-493f33fc44a4&id=preview For High Yield Dividend Newsletter members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=b3ba530f-38b3-489a-ac96-2961dca89c6b&id=preview For Exclusive members: http://campaign.r20.constantcontact.com/render?preview=true&m=1110817109903&ca=ba6d90c0-4433-48b2-9b8a-aac4ddf9006e&id=preview We’re here for any questions. Please just let us know how we can help! Kind regards, Brian Nelson, CFA  brian@valuentum.com

GlaxoSmithKline: Turnaround in Progress?

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Image Shown: GlaxoSmithKline’s share price performance since early 2014. GlaxoSmithKline may be poised to enter an earnings trough if generic competition is successful in providing a replacement for key product Advair, but management is working to right the ship. The company’s dividend yield is compelling, but its success will ultimately depend on the progress of its clinical pipeline. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways GlaxoSmithKline may be poised to enter an earnings trough should key product Advair face pending generic competition. CEO Emma Walmsley is engineering a turnaround with multiple achievable targets, but the success of her tenure ultimately depends on the success of the company’s clinical pipeline. The stock’s generous dividend yield is compelling, and the potential for capital … Read more

Stellar Keytruda Growth Powers Merck Higher

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Shares of pharmaceutical giant Merck continue to accelerate thanks in large part to the growth of its key oncology asset Keytruda. Even though Merck is a well-established entity, future growth is highly correlated to the continued expansion of Keytruda as it continues to gain market share thanks in large part to superior clinical data and label expansion. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways Keytruda remains a star performer powering Merck’s quarterly performance. We remain big fans of Keytruda’s potential as the recent clinical data underscores the best in class potential of the molecule. The performance of Keytruda is critical for Merck as sales deceleration in former growth properties begin to weigh on overall sales of the company. Why are we … Read more

Valuentum’s Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Distribution

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The weighted average cost of capital is one of the most subjective measures in corporate finance, but it is also one of the most important ones. “The most important item over time in valuation is obviously interest rates…If interest rates are destined to be at low levels…It makes any stream of earnings from investments worth more money. The bogey is always what government bonds yield….Any investment is worth all the cash you’re going to get out between now and judgment day discounted back. The discounting back is affected by whether you choose interests rates like those of Japan or interest rates like those we had in 1982…When we had 15 percent short-term rates in 1982, it was silly to pay … Read more

AbbVie’s Outlook Remains Blurred

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Image Source: Global Panorama We remain bearish on the outlook for AbbVie as we do not believe the clinical pipeline will be able to adequately offset the loss of revenue when key product Humira loses patent protection beginning in October as a biosimilar enters the European market. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways AbbVie remains over-reliant on sales of Humira to drive top-line sales–a major red flag as the worldwide patent protection is about to lapse. Humira will lose patent protection in Europe, and thus in our view, we think we are about to witness peak Humira sales in 2018. We feel investors are over-estimating the productivity of the clinical pipeline, and while there is always a chance AbbVie may … Read more

What Are the Downside Risks of Gilead Sciences?

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We think the risk-reward at Gilead remains positively skewed in investors’ favor, but let’s examine the downside case for Gilead Sciences so there are no surprises. It’s always a good approach to evaluate where an investor may go wrong with an investment idea, and assessing upside and downside cases, as in a fair value range, remains par for the course. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways We wanted to highlight a few key points on what could go wrong on our bullish thesis on Gilead Sciences. We believe the HCV market is stabilizing with Gilead on track to meet its dramatically-reduced revenue forecast. Biktarvy–Gilead’s next-gen HIV product–is poised to steal significant market share. Yescarta, the recently-acquired CAR-T treatment, should generate … Read more

Study: Valuentum’s Best Ideas Newsletter Portfolio

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To read the study, please click on the image to download the pdf document (pdf).

Gilead Sciences at the Crossroads; HIV and Oncology Franchises Promising

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Image Source: Gilead Sciences’ first-quarter 2018 results The loss of a key revenue-generating molecule is a tough, yet oftentimes manageable, portion of a pharma entity’s overall life cycle. Gilead Sciences is in the midst of a key turnaround as the loss of revenue from its Hepatitis C franchise is beginning to abate, while new novel treatments embark on the early stages of their respective revenue cycles. That said, we’d like to see traction in its HIV and oncology franchises, and perhaps the addition of a new franchise to the portfolio, or we will sour on the stock long-term. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways We are not at all surprised by the continued decline in revenue posted by Gilead’s HCV … Read more

The Transformation of Novartis Continues

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Image Source: Taki Steve Leadership change can often bring a great deal of uncertainty especially when a new leader is replacing a successful CEO. In the case of Novartis, we are witnessing a focused effort to streamline the business: a deliberate attempt to shift focus from a sprawling healthcare enterprise towards a more pure-play pharma/biotech powerhouse with an innovative, cutting-edge product portfolio. By Alexander J. Poulos Key Takeaways We liked that Novartis divested its stake in its healthcare joint-venture with GlaxoSmithKline, and we were very pleased with the large sale price of $13 billion. The cash proceeds will offer increased financial flexibility at Novartis. We’re not completely against the company’s near-$9 billion deal for AveXis, though this, too, had a … Read more