GOOGL

3 Lessons in Portfolio Management Over 10 Years

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Dear members: — We’re finally getting a pause in the rapid ascent of the markets on September 3rd. Though headlines may look scary and momentum/volatility investors could start to pile on to the downside, a modest retracement is actually a good thing. We continue to focus on the long haul with our processes, and we’re viewing the sell-off as profit taking, for the most part. — In the near term, the markets will also have to digest some speculators betting on mean reversion between “value” (cyclical) versus “growth” (secular), but we maintain the view that the value-versus-growth conversation is largely nonsense (see block quotes below), and mean reversion is something akin to the gamblers’ fallacy, in my humble opinion. Investors should also continue … Read more

The Merits of Concentrated Portfolios

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My dear friends: — Many thanks for your continued interest in our work.  — Though uncertainty in the efficacy of any vaccine for coronavirus disease (“COVID-19”) remains, the New York Times reported today that the CDC “has notified public health officials in all 50 states and five large cities to prepare to distribute a coronavirus vaccine to health care workers and other high-risk groups as soon as late October or early November,” just weeks from now.  — While expected by the optimists, we continue to view this as good news. The sheer amount of resources, both public and private, seeking a vaccine for COVID-19 leads me to believe we’ll have one sooner than later, in time to set the economy up for a stronger-than-expected … Read more

TikTok Up for Grabs

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Image Shown: ByteDance may be forced to sell the US operations of TikTok, and there are plenty of potential suitors out there with deep pockets. By Callum Turcan On August 27, Walmart Inc (WMT) announced it was in discussions with Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) about acquiring the US operations of popular short-video-oriented social firm TikTok from Beijing-based ByteDance. Given that Microsoft noted back on August 2 it was continuing discussions concerning a potential deal for TikTok’s US, Australian, New Zealand and Canadian operations, it is likely Walmart would be interested in acquiring an economic interest in those assets as well. Here is what Walmart had to say in its brief statement (emphasis added): The way TikTok has integrated e-commerce and advertising … Read more

Nvidia Bets Big on Data Centers

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Image Source: Nvidia Corporation – 2020 Annual Meeting of Stockholders Presentation By Callum Turcan On August 19, Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) reported second quarter fiscal 2021 earnings (period ended July 26, 2020) that beat consensus top-line estimates (on a GAAP basis) and consensus bottom-line estimates (on a non-GAAP basis, as its GAAP earnings were slightly lower than consensus estimates). Nvidia has several things going for it including a pristine balance sheet (meaning a net cash position), a data center business that is growing at a brisk pace (which we will cover in this note), a high quality cash flow profile (relatively low capital expenditure requirements to generate meaningful revenues), and its outlook is supported by secular growth tailwinds, particularly as it … Read more

Just How Good Have We Been?

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Image: We have been absolutely pounding the table on big cap tech and large cap growth for many months now. It has been one of the rare buckets to have done well this year. By well, we mean superb. Source: Zerohedge — Hi everyone:—Brian here. Just how good have we been for members? — After capping off one of the best years in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio in 2019, we highlighted broad market put option ideas in late February and early March–right before the COVID-19 crash that shocked the markets.  — Then, just about right near the bottom, we highlighted 17 of 20 outperforming ideas–strong net-cash-rich, free-cash-flow generating powerhouses with strong secular growth tailwinds. We then went all-in in the newsletter … Read more

August Best Ideas Newsletter!

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Image: The Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. We migrated to weighting ranges at the beginning of 2018. The image above is as of the close April 15. — Hi everyone: — Trust you are well.  — Portfolio concentration among strong-performing equities has been the key to outperformance. Since the last update, we’ve witnessed some big moves from our top-weighted entities: Berkshire Hathaway (+10.7%), Facebook (+8.7%), and PayPal (+11.2%). These three entities comprise roughly 34% of the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio at the high end of the weighting ranges, more than offsetting the weaker performance from lower-weighted Cisco and Intel during the month. We continue to focus on over-weighting our “best of the best” ideas within a portfolio setting, and we’re hoping to … Read more

Alphabet Remains a Cash Flow Juggernaut

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Image Shown: Alphabet Inc Class C shares, GOOG, are up 27% over the past year as of this writing on August 4. We continue to like shares of GOOG as a top-weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio. By Callum Turcan We include Alphabet Inc (GOOG) (GOOGL) Class C shares as a top-weighted holding in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, with shares of GOOG trading near their fair value estimate of $1,436 per share as of this writing. Given its pristine balance sheet, promising long-term growth trajectory and resilient business model, we see room for material capital appreciation upside at Alphabet as the top end of our fair value estimate range sits at $1,795 per share of GOOG. … Read more

Facebook’s Growth Story Continues

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Image Shown: Shares of Facebook Inc are up ~23% year-to-date as of the end of normal trading hours on August 3. We continue to like shares of FB as a top-weighted holding in our Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio, and we see room for meaningful capital appreciate upside. By Callum Turcan On July 30, Facebook Inc (FB) reported second quarter 2020 earnings that beat consensus top- and bottom-line estimates by a mile. Advertising revenue was up 10% year-over-year last quarter, a slower growth rate than the 17% year-over-year increase posted during the first quarter of this year but still very impressive given the headwinds facing the digital advertising space due to the ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. Facebook’s revenues and bottom-line grew … Read more

Our Judgment for the Long Haul

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The figure above shows the performance of the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio from inception May 17, 2011, through December 15, 2017, relative to its declared benchmark, the S&P 500 (SPY), on an apples-to-apples basis, with dividends collected but not reinvested for both the newsletter portfolio and the SPY, as reported in the monthly newsletter. The simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio outperformed the S&P 500, including reinvested dividends in the benchmark, since inception (May 17, 2011) and since the inaugural release of the newsletter (July 13, 2011) through the end of the measurement period (December 15, 2017). The results are hypothetical and do not represent returns that an investor actually earned. Past results are not indicative of future performance. Valuentum … Read more

AT&T Remains Free Cash Flow King, Though Deleveraging Efforts Are Getting Tougher

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Image Shown: AT&T Inc continued to be a free cash flow cow last quarter, though the ongoing pandemic created headwinds for its various businesses. Image Source: AT&T Inc – Second Quarter of 2020 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan The ongoing coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic has created some very serious headwinds for AT&T Inc (T), but that did not stop the telecommunications and entertainment giant from being incredibly free cash flow positive last quarter. On July 23, AT&T reported its second quarter 2020 earnings report and we remain confident in the firm’s ability to keep making good on its dividend obligations going forward. Shares of T yield ~7.1% as of this writing, and we include shares of AT&T in our High … Read more