CARR

Fastenal’s Latest Earnings Update Indicates US Economic Recovery Continues

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Image Source: Fastenal Company – Third Quarter of 2021 IR Earnings Presentation By Callum Turcan On October 12, Fastenal Company (FAST) reported third quarter 2021 earnings that beat top-line consensus estimates and matched bottom-line consensus estimates. The company’s latest earnings report reinforces our thesis that the US economy is continuing to recover from the worst of the coronavirus (‘COVID-19’) pandemic. In 2020, Fastenal generated over 85% of its total sales in the US. Fastenal provides products and services in the decentralized maintenance, repair & operation (‘MRO’) industry, a space where the company attempts to gain an advantage over distribution by locating its operations as close as possible to the economic point of contract with its customers. Earnings Update Within its … Read more

Home Depot Shows the Home Has Never Been More Important

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Image Source: Home Depot. By Brian Nelson, CFA On Tuesday, February 23, Home Depot (HD) reported fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results (period ending January 31, 2021) that came in better than consensus estimates across the board. Not only did the top- and bottom- lines beat, but comparable store sales growth of 24.5% exceeded even some of the most optimistic forecasts for the home improvement retailer during the period. The average ticket price and the number of transactions advanced, while both professional (“Pro”) and Do-It-Yourself (“DIY”) customer revenue increased at a double-digit pace in the quarter. Home Depot also raised its dividend 10% and now yields ~2.5% on a forward-looking basis ($6.60 per-share dividend on an annualized basis). We continue to like … Read more

ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios

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January 27, 2021 ALERT: Raising Cash in the Newsletter Portfolios We are raising the cash position in the simulated Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and simulated Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — Our research has been absolutely fantastic for a long time, but 2020 may have been our best year yet. You can read the 2020 recap here. With the S&P 500 trading within our fair value estimate range of 3,530-3,920 (and the markets rolling over while showing signs of abnormal behavior), we’re raising the cash position in the Best Ideas Newsletter portfolio and Dividend Growth Newsletter portfolio to 10%-20%. — For more conservative investors, the high end of this range may even be larger, especially … Read more

Walking Through the Calculation of the Dividend Cushion Ratio

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A cow for her milk, A hen for her eggs, And a stock, by heck, For her dividends. An orchard for fruit, Bees for their honey, And stocks, besides, For their dividends. – John Burr Williams, “The Theory of Investment Value” (1938) Executive Summary: We believe the Dividend Cushion ratio is one of the most helpful tools an income or dividend growth investor can use in conjunction with qualitative dividend analysis. The ratio is one-of-a-kind in that it is both free-cash-flow based, considers balance sheet health, and is forward looking. Since its development in 2012, we estimate its efficacy at ~90% in helping to forewarn readers of impending dividend cuts. For companies where Valuentum reports are available, the Dividend Cushion ratio can be found in a stock’s Dividend … Read more

ICYMI — Dividend Growth Strategies Struggle

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Image: A large cap growth ETF (orange) has significantly outperformed an ETF tied to a dividend growth strategy, the SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY), which mirrors the total return performance of the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index. — By Brian Nelson, CFA — To no surprise to many members, several dividend growth strategies have faced tremendous pressure during 2020. The Journal recently wrote a piece on the topic, but from our perspective, the problem with many dividend growth strategies is that they tend to be balance-sheet agnostic and pay little attention to traditional free cash flow expectations, focusing only on the yield itself, sometimes dismissing future fundamentals in favor of historical growth trends and the inferior EPS-based dividend payout ratio. — In many dividend-targeted … Read more

3 Lessons in Portfolio Management Over 10 Years

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Dear members: — We’re finally getting a pause in the rapid ascent of the markets on September 3rd. Though headlines may look scary and momentum/volatility investors could start to pile on to the downside, a modest retracement is actually a good thing. We continue to focus on the long haul with our processes, and we’re viewing the sell-off as profit taking, for the most part. — In the near term, the markets will also have to digest some speculators betting on mean reversion between “value” (cyclical) versus “growth” (secular), but we maintain the view that the value-versus-growth conversation is largely nonsense (see block quotes below), and mean reversion is something akin to the gamblers’ fallacy, in my humble opinion. Investors should also continue … Read more

VIDEO/TRANSCRIPT: 2021 Valuentum Exclusive Call: Inflation Is Good

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Valuentum’s President Brian Michael Nelson, CFA, explains why investors should not fear inflation, why government agencies such as the Fed and Treasury are prioritizing something other than price discovery, why the 10-year Treasury rate is a must-watch metric, and why Valuentum prefers the moaty constituents in large cap growth due to their net cash rich balance sheets, tremendous free cash flow generating potential, and secular growth tailwinds. Transcript: << Valuentum’s Best Ideas On behalf of the Valuentum team, I’d like to present to you our prepared remarks for the Valuentum Exclusive conference call for 2021. It is both an honor and a privilege to share our team’s work with you, and I personally am very grateful for your continued interest … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of December 8

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending December 8. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          Albany (AIN): now $0.26 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.25. Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE): now $1.27 per share quarterly dividend, was $1.24. AltaGas Ltd. (ATGFF): now CAD 0.2975 per share quarterly dividend, was CAD 0.28. Avis Budget (CAR): now $10.00 per share special dividend. Balchem (BCPC): now $0.79 per share annual dividend, was $0.71. Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY): now $0.60 per share quarterly dividend, … Read more

Industrial Bellwethers A Mixed Bag: GE, BA, CAT, DE, UNP

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Image Source: Caterpillar Inc – May 2022 Caterpillar Investor Day Presentation By Callum Turcan In this article, we cover the industrial landscape by digging into the recent financial and operational performance of General Electric Company (GE), Boeing Co (BA), Caterpillar Inc (CAT), Deere & Company (DE), and Union Pacific Corporation (UNP). Common themes include robust demand for their offerings, healthy order backlogs, and meaningful pricing power, though headwinds include substantial inflationary pressures, supply chain hurdles, and in certain instances, geopolitical tensions. General Electric will soon separate into three different publicly traded companies, and on a consolidated basis the firm is doing much better than years past. In 2022 and on a non-GAAP basis, General Electric is guiding for a 150+ … Read more

Dividend Increases/Decreases for the Week of December 6

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Below we provide a list of firms that raised their dividends during the week ending December 6. The dividend reports of covered firms on this list will be updated shortly with the new information. To access our dividend reports use the ‘Symbol’ search box in our website header. Firms Raising Their Dividends This Week                          A & W Food Services of Canada Inc. (AW:CA): now $0.3748 per share quarterly dividend. ABM Industries (ABM): now $0.265 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.225. Absecon Bancorp (ASCN): now $0.90 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.75. AES (AES): now $0.176 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.172. AFLAC (AFL): now $0.58 per share quarterly dividend, was $0.50. Airports of Thailand Public Company Limited (AIPUY): … Read more